NFL Picks, Week 3

But first, 3 quick thoughts on last night's game:

1) There's the Michael Vick we all remember! All it took was putting a good defense on the field across from him, and all of a sudden Chip Kelly's revolutionary NFL offense suddenly morphed into Andy Reid's turnover-fest of an offense from 2011-2012. 

2) As a Dwayne Bowe fantasy owner, let me just say that game killed me. Bowe is by far the best receiver on that team, and because Alex Smith is afraid to throw the ball downfield and risk a turnover, Bowe went unused all game long. The fact that Jim Harbuagh came a pair of decent hands away from the Super Bowl with Alex Smith as his starter is a near-miracle. And the fact that the Chiefs traded a 2nd rounder if they reach 8-8 (and they will: they still have 4 games against San Diego and Oakland) this year for Smith is absolute lunacy. 

3) That being said, Philadelphia's defense could have forced Smith's hand, but instead they let 3-5 yard dumpoff after dumpoff turn into 20-40 yard gains thanks to poor angles and terrible tackling. But even Philly's terrible defense was able to hold the Chiefs to 1 touchdown on 6-7 red zone trips. 

As always (except for last week, when I forgot), home team in CAPS

Green Bay (-3) over CINCINNATI

Aaron Rodgers will get his points, even against very good defenses (see week 1 vs San Francisco). Green Bay lost the San Francisco game because Colin Kaepernick shredded their defense. Even though AJ Green is more than talented enough to pull an Anquan Boldin on the Packers secondary, Andy Dalton is not good enough to keep up with Rodgers. 

St. Louis (+3.5) over DALLAS

The Rams do a tremendous job of getting pressure on the passer with their front 4. Tony Romo does a tremendous job of falling apart when there's consistent pressure in his face. The way to slow down St. Louis is to run the ball effectively, which Dallas has not proven they can do reliably. 

TENNESSEE (-3) over San Diego 

Hardest game to pick this week. Tennessee wants to slow the game down, grind some clock, and only have Jake Locker throw the ball 20-25 times. San Diego wants to let Philip Rivers air the ball out and pray their defense can get a couple of well-timed stops. Basically whoever controls the tempo should win this game. San Diego's defense is the clear weak link in this game, which means Tennessee should be able to set the pace, so the Titans move to 2-1. 

MINNESOTA (-6) over Cleveland 

As discussed yesterday, Cleveland is tanking for a better quarterback option in the 2014 draft. Not only have they traded away their most talented offensive player, they're also starting Brian Hoyer at quarterback (thanks to a Brandon Weeden injury). Hoyer was the understudy for Tom Brady until his rookie deal expired, at which point nobody bothered to sign him until Arizona realized their fans would riot if they started Ryan Lindley one more time. So why isn't this line higher? Minnesota is starting Christian Ponder at quarterback. On purpose. 

Tampa Bay (+7) over NEW ENGLAND

Is 10 days enough time for Tom Brady's receivers who aren't Julian Edelman to learn how to run the right routes, get open, and catch the ball in the same play? I'll buy that there will be improvement, sure. But the problems aren't going to vanish completely. This is another tough defense, and Tampa is better offensively than the Jets if they can stop fighting with their coach. 

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Arizona 

Carson Palmer in the Superdome, on turf, against a defense that loves to pressure the quarterback. That's not going to end well. 

Detroit (+2.5) over WASHINGTON

Unless Washington and RG3 come out ready to play in the first half for the first time in 2013, this game will go just like the other 2 have. Detroit will jump out to an early lead because Washington's defense won't put up any resistance. By the time Washington finds their offensive groove it will be too late to do anything by pad their stats. 

New York Giants (+1) over CAROLINA

Carolina is great at stopping the run, and pretty mediocre at stopping the pass. The Giants don't even bother trying to run these days, because that would mean trusting David Wilson to hold onto the football. If the Giants defense can keep Cam Newton under wraps for the first quarter, Eli Manning might actually be able to relax a bit, and a relaxed Eli will carve up this Carolina secondary. 

Houston (-2.5) over BALTIMORE

Baltimore's offense is still poor without a legitimate secondary receiver to take some coverage away from Torrey Smith. And Ray Rice being banged up isn't helping things either. Baltimore's defense is good enough to keep Houston from running away with this, but their offense simply won't be able to consistently move the ball against JJ Watt and company. 

MIAMI (-1) over Atlanta

Atlanta is coming into Miami as the walking wounded. Their #1 (or 1A) reciever is still hobbled with a high ankle sprain (Roddy White), and their starting running back is out 2-4 weeks with a bruised thigh. Add in a stout Miami defense (and a poor Atlanta one) and I don't see Atlanta getting untracked this week on the road. 

Buffalo (+1) over NEW YORK JETS

EJ Manuel with talent around him is better than Geno Smith with no talent around him. 

SAN FRANCISCO (-10) over Indianapolis 

I'm not ready to believe that San Francicso is in trouble. They should be able to carve up the Indianapolis defense whichever way they want to, run or pass, and their front 7 should be able to make the Colts one dimensional and punish Andrew Luck for it. 

SEATTLE (-19) over Jacksonville 

This one is tough. On the one hand, an almost-20-point spread in the NFL is ridiculous. On the other hand, Seattle covers at home. And how on earth is Jacksonville going to gain yards, let alone score points, in that stadium? Am I really going to say that Seattle won't score at least 24 points against the Jaguars? Because if Seattle scores 24 points, they're covering this spread. Really, if they hit 20 points, they should cover this spread. 

Chicago (-2.5) over PITTSBURGH

Pittsburgh's just a bad team right now. Only Jay Cutler going full Jay Cutler (trust me, you never want to go full Cutler) can keep Chicago from winning this game. The line's only at 2.5 because no one wants to stake their life on Jay Cutler not doing Jay Cutlery things. 

DENVER (-15) over Oakland

These are the games Peyton Manning lives for. He gets to conduct his orchestra against a clearly overmatched defense. I can see Terrelle Pryor scrambling around enough to give Denver's defense some fits, but he's also going to turn the ball over. And Peyton has put up over 40 points against both the Ravens and Giants. If he puts up fewer than 30 against Oakland he should have to offer free Papa John's pizza for life to every fantasy player who starts him on Monday night. 

This week: 1-0 (whoo-hoo!)

Last week: 8-7-1 (.531)

2013: 10-20-2 (.344)