1. Wow, Denver's offense is just as scary good as we imagined it could be. And Wes Welker is a master of his craft. He looked like he'd been playing with Peyton for years, and he's only had one offseason. Their defense though looks below average. Granted they were missing some guys, most notably Von Miller and Champ Bailey, but they are going to have to win this year by outscoring people. That's a much better formula for regular season success than postseason success (every Patriots fan is nodding).
2. Once Baltimore lost Jacoby Jones, their offense went in the tank. As soon as his speed was off the field, Denver was clearly not scared of any of Baltimore's receivers. They took away the running game and blitzed Flacco with abandon, free to man cover everyone outside of Torrey Smith.
Every year Brandon Stokley signs another one-year contract and does his thing as a slot receiver with enough gumption and guile to find the creases in the defense. Last night he just looked old and slow, but at least he didn't look washed up like teammate Dallas Clark. Clark took some withering hits and was clearly hearing footsteps all night. These guys can sit in the holes in a zone defense, but they aren't going to beat decent defenders when matched up man-to-man. If Jones is out for a prolonged period of time, Baltimore will have to conjure another receiver out of thin air, or this defense is going to have to pull much more than its weight for Baltimore to be successful.
3. NFL coaches are all about finding an edge. Be it a scheme, personnel, or motivaitonal, they will work 16-20 hours a day just to find that small piece to give them an incrementally better chance of winning. So why, in the name of everything sacred, are so many of them still incompetent at using their challenges???
Take John Harbaugh, the man is clearly in the upper echelon of current NFL coaches. He's won at least one playoff game in all of his 5 seasons in charge of the Ravens, culminating in last year's Super Bowl win. He also manges to do this coming off as something less than an egomaniacal, whiny jerk than his brother Jim, but I digress.
Last night, with under 4 mintues to play in a 14-14 game and Denver starting a drive inside of their own 40 yard line, Manning threw a pass on first down to his receiver that gained 5 yards. The pass clearly hit the ground and was a slam dunk to be overturned. But we were talking the difference between 2nd and 5 and 2nd and 10. Five measly yards with over 3 minutes in the half and only facing second down. Yes, the challenge is a sure win but there are opportunity costs to using your challenge here. By burning his challenge for the sake of 5 yards, Harbaugh ensured that if he got his next challenge wrong, he would lose the opportunity to challenge any more calls for the rest of the game. Again, we were still in the first half at this point. Note: the Broncos incurred a false start penalty to make it 2nd and 15 right after the review and reversal and failed to achieve the first down, punted, and the Ravens drove down the field for a field goal before halftime.
Cut to the first Denver drive of the 3rd quarter with the Broncos trailing 17-14. Third down, Manning throws a ball to Welker that looks like it might have hit the ground but is called complete. This catch gives Denver the first down. As Manning's hurrying everyone to the line, Harbaugh is faced with another challenge decision, but this one has higher stakes.
If he wins - Denver will face 4th down and almost assuredly punt the ball back to the Ravens
If he loses - Denver continues its drive and the Ravens are out of challenges for this game
Harbaugh ends up not throwing the challenge flag. Ensuing replays clearly show the pass was incomplete, but in the meantime Manning drives the Broncos down the field for a touchdown for a 21-17 lead the Broncos would never relinquish.
Now, you can try to make the argument that the first challenge had nothing to do with the second non-challenge, but you might need surgery on your shoulder afterwards. If Harbaugh never makes the first challenge, the downside to challenging the Welker play is he has only one challenge left. Because he made the first challenge, the downside was having no challenges left, which meant he had to be 100% certain he'd win a challenge on Welker's catch. It's hard to be 100% certain combing replays for 20-30 seconds before the ball is snapped for the next play.
For the sake of 5 yards on second down, Harbaugh missed out on ending the Broncos drive that gained them a second-half lead they would never relinquish.
The moral of this episode? It's not just about overturning the call. The potential benefit has to be worth the cost, and when calculating the cost the coach must factor in potential later challenges. Harbaugh failed to do so in this case and it cost his team.
Onto the picks:
New England (-10) over BUFFALO
There's a very small, very quiet rumbling that EJ Manuel could be this year's Russell Wilson. As far as I can tell, the analysis behind this rumbling is a) both QBs are African-American, b) both are athletic, c) the read option is awesome! I'm not buying the comparison, and even Russell Wilson had some growing pains after not getting all of the snaps in his first preseason. EJ Manuel missed the second half of the preseason with a knee injury that required surgery. Then his backup got hurt and Buffalo was faced with the prospect of starting a Jeff Tuel at quarterback against the Patriots. Luckily, EJ's recovery picked up and he'll be ready for the opener. It won't matter.
PITTSBURGH (-7) over Tennessee
I believe in the Titans' new running game and can see their defense keeping this game close throughout (and maybe even stealing a win)...right up until I visualize Jake Locker throwing the ball against a relatively healthy Pittsburgh defense.
Atlanta (+3) over NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta has an explosive offense, a below-average defense, and motivation from coming within 10 yards of the Super Bowl last year. New Orleans has an explosive offense, an historically-bad defense they have been frantically trying to remake all offseason, and a Louisiana-sized chip on their shoulder from last season's bounty-gate fallout that helped wreck their season. I'm picking against the team with the historically-bad defense.
Tampa Bay (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS
I know Josh Freeman has his doubters (I'm one of them), but I am shocked that this line is so low. The Jets are going to be legitimately terrible this year.
JACKSONVILLE (+4) over Kansas City
I believe Jacksonville will be frisky this season. They won't be good, and 6 wins would be a surprise, but they'll keep more games close than you'll expect and will steal one or two you don't see coming. I think this is one of those games. They jump out to an early lead on the back of MJD, and gut out a field goal fest.
Cincinnati (+3) over CHICAGO
I don't love Andy Dalton against the Bears defense, but I love Cincinnati's defense teeing off on Jay Cutler and forcing him into a risky throw or 20.
CLEVELAND (-1) over Miami
I like Cleveland's defense to shut down Ryan Tannehill and force a turnover or two. I don't think this game will be pretty, but Cleveland wins a low-scoring affair.
Seattle (-3.5) over CAROLINA
I should feel more confident about this game. If Seattle's defensive line were healthier, I would. But their defense completely shut down Cam Newton to 3 points last year (9 points were scored by the defense in Carolina's 16-12 loss), so they should be able to keep him under 20 with no problem. And while Carolina's defense could be sneaky-good, Seattle should be able to put up 20-24 points on them.
Minnesota (+5) over DETROIT
Adrian Peterson over/under 132 yards: OVER
Peterson needs to average 132 yards a game to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record (he finished last year 9 yards short).
Detroit has a terrible run defense and Minnesota's other option is to let Christian Ponder throw the ball, so I say Peterson finishes game 1 of the season on pace to take down Dickerson. Because of this, Ponder won't have to do much more than sell the play action fakes, and hit his receivers against a terrible secondary. Advantage, Vikings.
INDIANAPOLIS (-10) over Oakland
The Terrelle Pryor experiment won't travel well.
ST. LOUIS (-4.5) over Arizona
I was tempted to go with Arizona here, but two things stopped me. 1) St. Louis' defense is weakest against the run, and Arizona is woefully ill-equipped to use that to their advantage. 2) St. Louis does a great job rushing the passer, which Arizona is also woefully ill-equipped to stop (or even slow down). Carson Palmer will be on his back more than...you know what? Let's not finish that thought.
SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5) over Green Bay
I have picked Green Bay over San Francisco too many times and watched it blow up in my face. Green Bay has talked all offseason about being ready for the read option. Maybe they will be, and maybe they won't be. But in the end, San Francisco outlclasses them
New York Giants (+3.5) over DALLAS
The Giants are 4-0 in Jerry Jones' continent of a stadium. Perhaps the Giants should have petitioned the league to play their kickoff classic on the road last season.
WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Philadelphia
Good defenses struggle against a healthy RG3. RG3 currently has a clean bill of health. And Philly's defense isn't close to good.
Houston (-4) over SAN DIEGO
As the nation snoozes through the second Monday night game of the night, they will miss Philip Rivers doing his Philip Rivers things (read: getting sacked and throwing interceptions)
This week: 0-1
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