NFL Picks, Week 4

But first I see if I can muster up 3 thoughts about last night's snoozer.

1. There appears to be a funny joke going around NFL circles, as multiple outlets are reporting that St. Louis is eager to do a contract extension with quarterback Sam Bradford. Yes, Bradford was the #1 overall pick in the last draft before rookie salaries were brough under control and he's due over $16 million in each of the next 2 seasons, but have they been watching Bradford's career? Granted, his weapons have not been any better than medicore (if we're being charitable) and the Rams are running a season-long experiment on playing football without any semblance of a running game, but if Bradford were going to show he was worthy of the #1 overall pick...wouldn't we have seen it by now?

2. This game said much more about the Rams than it did about the 49ers. The one positive you can take away if you're a 49ers fan is your coaching staff isn't completely stubborn. After a game in which they criminally underused the running game and Frank Gore when it was the only part of their offense that was working, they learned from their mistakes.

3. I'll let this tweet say it because I can't say it better:

Not a good sign that every quarterback under Brian Schottenheimer is Mark Sanchez, or becomes him.
— Marc Sessler (@MarcSesslerNFL) September 27, 2013

Brian Schottenheimer is currently the Rams offensive coordinator. In a related story, the Rams offense looks completely unimaginative and inept.

On to the games (home team in CAPS)

byes: Green Bay, Carolina

Baltimore (-3.5) over BUFFALO
On the one hand, Baltimore's defense and special teams are showing they can again carry more than their share of the load while the offense continues to find its footing. On the same hand, Buffalo has the same defense that let the Jets offense torch them in the passing game. As bad as Baltimore's offense has looked, they're better than the Jets.

Cincinnati (-4.5) over CLEVELAND 
The Brian Hoyer is a starting quarterback wagon will veer off the road, crash into a ditch, and once everyone has gotten out and brushed themselves off, spontaneously catch fire. Cincinnati's defense is a few steps above the Vikings' unit.

KANSAS CITY (-4.5) over New York Giants 
I'm not sure why, but I still haven't given up on the Giants righting the ship in time to make a run at the NFC East title. But I'm not buying that this offensive revival will come against what's looking like a top-5 defense n 2013.

Pittsburgh (-1.5) over "MINNESOTA" 
Hey, look, it's another game in London as the NFL attempts to grow their fanbase and take over the world. And it's yet another game that pits two lackluster and/or terrible teams against each other, in what is either the worst campaign a $9 billion company has ever launched, or the most brilliant passive-aggressive attempt to shut down expansion talk that I've ever seen. As for the game itself, Pittsburgh's defense may not be the Pittsburgh defense we all remember, but Matt Cassel (starting for the injured Christian Ponder) is exactly the Matt Cassel we all remember.

Chicago (+2.5) over DETROIT 
The day may come when Jay Cutler reverts to blindly throwing interceptions all over the field...but it will not be this day. The day may come when the courage of Brandon Marshall to carry the Bears passing offense on his shoulders fails...but it is not this day. Not against this Lions secondary.

Arizona (+3) over TAMPA BAY
Given that Tampa Bay is a) in turmoil, b) just changed quarterbacks to a rookie 3rd round draft pick, c) has had their offense called bland and uninspiring, and d) quit on their previous coach 2 years ago, leading to Greg Schiano getting the job, I'm going with the other team in this one, if that's okay.

Indianapolis (-7) over JACKSONVILLE
I could make the argument that the Colts defense can be run on, and Jacksonville still has Maurice Jones-Drew. I could point out that Jacksonville moved the ball well in the second half against Seattle (mostly their backups, but still), and that the Jaguars are getting their starting quarterback back (who's Blaine Gabbert...you know what, forget the quarterback thing). And I could point out that this is a classic letdown game for the Colts coming off their big road upset in San Francisco. In all, I can make a case for Jacksonville covering this game, but I'd be ignoring one very important point. One of these teams is the Jacksonville Jaguars, and one isn't. Give me the one that isn't.

HOUSTON (+2.5) over Seattle 
Coming into this season I had this game pegged as a Seahawks loss, and perhaps the toughest game on Seattle's schedule. A 10 AM Pacific time start against a very balanced team. Then the first three games of 2013 happened, and Houston looked entirely out-of-sync. It's like the Texans still haven't recovered from that Monday night smack-down in Foxborough late last season. So why am I picking the Texans? The 10 AM start is still an issue for Seattle until they prove it's not. But more importantly, 3/5 of the Seahawks offensive line is missing this game, including their all-pro left tackle and center.

TENNESSEE (-3.5) over New York Jets 
Tennessee has taken care of the bad teams on their schedule so far. The Jets (despite the shiny 2-1 record) are a bad team.

DENVER (-11) over Philadelphia 
We have established that the Eagles defense can't stop anybody. We have also established that nobody has shown the potential to stop the Denver offense. Irresistible force, meet very movable object.

Dallas (-1) over SAN DIEGO
San Diego's pass defense is really, really bad. Tony Romo should be able to exploit it and throw all over the field easily.

Washington (-3) over OAKLAND 
The reports are Terrelle Pryor's concussion will keep him out of this game, which means Matt Flynn finally gets his first chance to start since his 6 touchdown performance in the last game of Green Bay's 2011 season. Unfortunately, Matt Flynn is not the quarterback for a talent-poor team like the Raiders. Even against a defense as dismal as Washington's, the Raiders stand a much better chance with Pryor using his dynamic athleticism. With Pryor out, Washington's defense will be able to contain the Raider offense.

New England (+1.5) over ATLANTA
While Atlanta is a better team than anyone the Patriots have faced this season, their defense is worse than either the Jets or Buccaneers units. Add in an offense with merely a hobbled Roddy White and a missing Steven Jackson, and I don't see them able to keep up with Tom Brady, even with his C- receiver corps.

NEW ORLEANS (-6) over Miami 
Miami's defense is dealing with a series of injuries going into the Superdome. Add in the Brees revenge factor (Miami's team doctors refused to sign off on the team signing him in the 2006 offseason), and I don't like Miami's chances in this one.

This week: 1-0 (whoo-hooo!!!)
Last week: 7-8-1 (.469)
2013 season: 17-28-3 (.385)

NFL Picks, Week 4 - Thursday Night Edition

Tonight's midweek match-up pits together two NFC West foes who
a) Are each 2 games back of division leader Seattle (I had to throw this in there)
b) Are each coming off of very unimpressive losses

San Francisco lost at home to the Colts 27-7. But look a bit closer, and that score is a bit deceiving. The 49ers were within 6 points of the lead for the first 55+ minutes of the game. But even if the final score is a bit misleading, the message from it was not: San Francisco can be run on.
Game 1 (Green Bay): 19 rushes, 63 yards (3.3 ypc)
Game 2 (Seattle): 47 rushes, 172 yards (3.7 ypc)
Game 3 (Indianapolis): 40 rushes, 184 yards (4.6 ypc)

Keeping in mind that saying you held Green Bay's rushing game in check is like saying you weren't as crazy in your twenties as Linsdey Lohan, and that while 3.7 ypc might not be that impressive, the fact that Seattle and Indy each felt comfortable enough to run the ball 40+ times should have alarm bells going off in the Bay Area. Remember, this is a team that didn't allow its first rushing touchdown of the season until week 15 in 2011. This year they've allowed 6 rushing TDs through 3 games.

And we haven't even begun to talk about their offense. San Francisco has struggled to get their vaunted ground game going, instead asking Colin Kaepernick to carry them through their games. After dicing up Green Bay's pass defense (which might be about as good as their running game) in week 1, Kaepernick has seen his last two opponents take away his only real WR threat (Anquan Boldin) with press coverage, and his other options have done a terrible job getting separation. In sum, their offense looks like a hot mess right now.

But there is some hope. In the Colts game, Frank Gore rushed 11 times for 82 yards, or 7.5 yards per carry. The follow-up question then being, "Why did Frank Gore only run the ball 11 times?' Gore agrees, as reports had him yelling at the coaching staff during the game. Presumably, San Francisco will look at that game, realize they got too cute with their play-calling, and re-commit to their ground game.

So if San Francisco is a lesser team than the past two years, does this mean the Rams and 49ers are close enough for this Thursday game to swing the advantage to the Rams?

Not so fast. As I said above, the Rams are coming off a pretty disappointing week 3 themselves. They fell to the Cowboys on the road 31-7. And unlike the 49ers-Colts game, this final score is in no way misleading. St. Louis was down 2 scores for all of the final 3 quarters in this one.

Much was made this offseason about how the Rams had finally gotten former #1 overall pick Sam Bradford some weapons to play with. While that is true, they did downgrade in one fairly important area: the running game. Simply put, the Rams don't have one. They don't even have a 100-yard rusher. Not in a game, on the season. Without some semblance of balance, the Rams offense has struggled to get going against everyone not named Arizona.

While the offense has its share of issues, this team was hoping to contend for a playoff spot on the back of its defense. A young, talented group who played well last year under the new Jeff Fisher-led regime, and who promised to get even better this season. That second-year jump hasn't happened. They can still rush the passer well, but they're giving up more points than expected (28.7 per game). Part of that is their run defense, which might as wlel have been non-existant against DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys last week (34 rushes, 193 yards, for 5.7 yards per carry).

So St. Louis hasn't quite picked up where they left off last year defensively, and they are horribly ill-equipped to attack the 49ers' vulnerable rush defense. They have the home factor, but the desperation factor sides with the 49ers. The 49ers were expected to contend for the NFC crown. The 49ers are dealing with massive injuries and pseudo-suspensions. And the 49ers are much better able to attack their opponent's defense weakness. All of this adds up to San Francisco living up to their road favorite status, even on the short week.

San Francisco (-3) over ST. LOUIS

NFL Power Poll, Week 3

Rank (Last)	Team	Record	Notes
1 (1)		3-0	We know Seattle is near unstoppable at home. They haven’t had an above-.500 record on the road since their Super Bowl season in 2005. This week's game in Houston will be a great test of just how fearsome this defense, and team, is.
2 (2)		3-0	The two questions that need answering: 1. Is there a team out there that can contain this offense? 2.  Can this offense continue working its magic in 30 degree weather in January?
3 (4)		3-0	Drew Brees and Sean Payton are making their usual sweet music together, but defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is actually backing up his talk with results this year. Considering how terrible this defense was last year, he's doing a heck of a job in his first season in New Orleans.
4 (12)		3-0	We knew the defense would be good, but Ryan Tannehill is the reason this team is 3-0, instead of a scary 1-2 team no one wants to play. Tannehill wasn't making enough plays last year, and this year he is, despite not much support from the running game.
5 (10)		3-0	Kansas City's defense is very good. Scary good, even. But the number one takeaway I had from last Thursday's game? Alex Smith is scared to throw downfield. Granted, the Eagles defense was so bad he didn't have to for the Chiefs to win comfortably. But his red zone performance was atrocious because he refuses to take any chances with the ball, and when the field gets shorter, you have to in order to get 7 points instead of 3. At some point Smith and the Chiefs offense will have to make plays, and I'm not confident they will.
6 (7)		3-0	If New England can get Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski on the field together, they are a top-5 team and perhaps the biggest challenger to Denver in the AFC. But with the history those two have, it's a pretty sizeable "if". Without them the upside is much more limited.
7 (8)		3-0	So far whatever voodoo trick Marc Trestman performed to make Jay Cutler forget who he is and instead play solid football is working. But Cutler has never been able to repress his usual turnovery tendencies for a whole season.
8 (11)		2-1	Not many teams can hold down Aaron Rodgers for 4 quarters. I'd have them higher if I didn't think Andy Dalton's effort said more about the Packers defense than it did about Andy Dalton.
9 (14)		2-1	Going into San Francisco and not just beating the 49ers but holding them to 7 points was a feat worthy of celebration. If the defense can even approach that level over the rest of the season, Indy could actually be an AFC contender.
10 (13)		2-1	The defense, depsite losing all those starters from the Super Bowl-winning unit, is covering up for the offense's San Andreas sized faults
11 (6)		2-1	You're willing to overlook problems when they're covered up by wins. Houston never should have been in position to lose to either San Diego or Tennessee (even with those two teams being better than anticipated), but they pulled those games out. But getting clobbered by Baltimore despite the Ravens' poor offense right now? That's a very bad sign. Some of this is bad luck (the defense only forcing 1 turnover through 3 games), but some is cracks appearing in the offensive foundation as their running game has gone from legendary to just good.
12 (3)		1-2	The lack of receivers, compounded by injuries has the San Francisco offense as a shell of its former self. And the defense, while still good, is no longer dominant enough to win games with the offense struggling to this degree. With the receiving corps in such shambles, the 49ers need to return to pounding the other team with the ground game like they did with Alex Smith under center.
13 (9)		1-2	The Roddy White injury is killing this team, and the Stephen Jackson injury is making it even harder for them to overcome it. We knew Atlanta's defense was pourous coming into the season, but believed the dynamic offense could (once again) overcome those shortcomings. But while the offense is dynamic, it is not deep. If White and Jackson don't get healthy soon, they will lose their shot at the division.
14 (5)		1-2	The Packers defense has given up 34 points to the 49ers (who have scored 10 points in their other 2 games), 20 points to the gimpy Redskins, and 27 points to the Andy Dalton-led Bengals. If we're not at the point where we declare the defense to be in a crisis, when does that point come?
15 (15)		2-1	Even in a world where every other contender for the NFC East title has basically thrown up the white flag, are we ready to trust that Tony Romo could lead Dallas into the playoffs? Could this be another Seattle in 2010 deal (read: a below-.500 team makes the playoffs)?
16 (18)		1-2	It's hard to determine what beating up on the Giants means for the Panthers, as the Giants didn't put up much resistance at all. Still, this team has a very solid front 7, and Cam Newton remains dangerous with the ball in his hands.
17 (16)		2-1	A break or two from being 3-0 right now, though it feels like the other shoe is going to drop soon. That's another way of saying that I haven't seen enough from jake Locker to make me forget his collegiate ~50% completion percentage.
18 (24)		2-1	Another 2-1 record that's a bit inflated due to who they've played. But their offense gives them a chance in most games, even if their secondary gives their opponents a chance in most games.
19 (17)		1-2	The regression of their defense is very concerning. They have a young core that should only be getting better from last year. Having Dallas run through them on their way to 31 points short circuited much of the optimism buidling up in St. Louis.
20 (25)		1-2	On the plus side, Philip Rivers isn't throwing interceptions at a rate that makes Vinny Testaverde jealous anymore. On the minus side, he's also not holding many 4th quarter leads.
21 (27)		1-2	Good for Cleveland, and good for Brian Hoyer. I could point out that they beat a terrible Minnesota team, so this doesn't mean they're ready to contend, but why stomp on Cleveland fans anymore. They do have a good chance to finish above Pittsburgh in the standings.
22 (20)		1-2	We knew the defense would be bad, but last Thursday night was a shameful display of defending. I'm even willing to forgive Michael Vick his turnover-laden night, as it was clear early on that Philly's defense couldn't stop anybody. When the opposing quarterback can dump off 5-yard passes on 3rd and 15+ and still convert the first down multiple times, you know your defense is a joke.
23 (22)		1-2	It's possible I spoke too soon about a real quarterback making them competitive. It doesn't help that their entire linebacking corps is essentially injured or suspended.
24 (29)		2-1	I don't want to be negative here, as the Jets have wildly exceeded my expectations. But 2-1 looks a little different when you look at who they've beaten.
25 (26)		0-3	The Steelers and Giants are almost mirror images of each other. The supporting cast isn't performing as well as they have in the past, leading to the quarterback feeling pressured to do too much. This leads to turnovers, which digs an even deeper hole, and again, the supporting cast isn't good enough for the quarterback to lead them back into the game. Once they get down, they stay down. So why is Pittsburgh here and the Giants further down? The Steelers don't have anything as embarassing as a 38-0 shellacking on their 2013 resume.
26 (23)		1-2	On the plus side, they are significantly more competitve than expected. On the minus side, the only time they executed down the stretch to secure the win was when Carolina completely blew a coverage for a wide open EJ Manuel touchdown pass. I guess that's a long-winded way of saying, expect plenty of entertaining games where Buffalo comes out on the short end.
27 (19)		0-3	At some point they have to snap out of it, right? Right??? If they do, they belong much higher on this list. But the team that got humiliated by Carolina last weekend, that team isn't going to do much damage at all, except to Eli Manning.
28 (21)		0-3	As long as RG3 continues to look tentative and rusty, Washington is a bottom-5 level team. The defense is that bad.
29 (28)		1-2	Pryor's concussion from Monday night is a concern, as they need his athletic ability if they're going to make plays on offense. Matt Flynn can't make chicken salad out of chicken poop, which is why Oakland gave Pryor the job.
30 (30)		0-3	Josh Freeman is out, and 3rd round draft pick Miek Glennon is in. Freeman is an interesting case. He had a great 2010, then a poor 2011 as the team quit on their coach. He had a pretty good 1st 12 or so games of 2012, then he completely tanked. While Freeman probably isn;t the guy, jumping to the rookie will not make the on-field product better in the short term.
31 (31)		0-3	The most frightening part of this 0-3 start? Adrian Peterson looks human. So much of Minnesota's playoff run last year was based on Adrian Peterson being super-human. An extra year removed from his knee injury should have him feeling physically better than last year. If Peterson can't at least approach last year's output, this team simply has no chance to contend.
32 (32)		0-3	They're going back to Blaine Gabbert now that he's over his injury. While this may make the current product worse, it's absolutely the right call. Chad Henne is what he is at this point. He's been in the league long enough that he's not going to substntially improve. The Jaguars need to determine if Gabbert can be part of the solution going forward. He doesn't necessarily have to be the franchise quarterback of the future (that ship has sailed), but if he can be good enough for the team to make strides then maybe they don't have to sell out for a QB in 2014. They can take the best player and continue to build their entire team around the eventual quarterback.

Biggest Risers: 

Miami (8 spots)
Detroit, Cleveland (6 spots)

Biggest Fallers:

San Francisco  (9 spots)

New York Giants (8 spots)

NFL Standings, Week 3

AFC
AFC EAST
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
New England Patriots	3	0	0	1.000	2-0	2-0	0.333	0.333
Miami Dolphins	3	0	0	1.000	2-0	0-0	0.444	0.444
New York Jets	2	1	0	0.667	1-1	1-1	0.167	0.444
Buffalo Bills	1	2	0	0.333	0-2	0-2	0.333	0.667
AFC NORTH
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Cincinnati Bengals	2	1	0	0.667	1-0	1-0	0.167	0.444
Baltimore Ravens	2	1	0	0.667	2-1	1-0	0.500	0.667
Cleveland Browns	1	2	0	0.333	0-2	0-1	0.000	0.556
Pittsburgh Steelers	0	3	0	0.000	0-2	0-1	0.000	0.778
AFC SOUTH
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Houston Texans	2	1	0	0.667	2-1	1-0	0.500	0.556
Tennessee Titans	2	1	0	0.667	2-1	0-1	0.167	0.333
Indianapolis Colts	2	1	0	0.667	1-1	0-0	0.333	0.556
Jacksonville Jaguars	0	3	0	0.000	0-2	0-0	0.000	0.778
AFC WEST
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Denver Broncos	3	0	0	1.000	2-0	1-0	0.333	0.333
Kansas City Chiefs	3	0	0	1.000	1-0	0-0	0.333	0.333
Oakland Raiders	1	2	0	0.333	1-2	0-1	0.000	0.556
San Diego Chargers	1	2	0	0.333	0-2	0-0	0.333	0.556
x-clinched playoff spot, y-clinched division title, z-clinched first round bye, c-clinched conference title

NFC
NFC EAST
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Dallas Cowboys	2	1	0	0.667	2-0	1-0	0.167	0.444
Philadelphia Eagles	1	2	0	0.333	1-0	1-0	0.000	0.444
Washington Redskins	0	3	0	0.000	0-3	0-1	0.000	0.444
New York Giants	0	3	0	0.000	0-2	0-1	0.000	0.667
NFC NORTH
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Chicago Bears	3	0	0	1.000	1-0	1-0	0.222	0.222
Detroit Lions	2	1	0	0.667	2-1	1-0	0.000	0.111
Green Bay Packers	1	2	0	0.333	1-1	0-0	0.000	0.333
Minnesota Vikings	0	3	0	0.000	0-2	0-2	0.000	0.667
NFC SOUTH
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
New Orleans Saints	3	0	0	1.000	3-0	2-0	0.222	0.222
Atlanta Falcons	1	2	0	0.333	1-1	0-1	0.333	0.778
Carolina Panthers	1	2	0	0.333	1-1	0-0	0.000	0.444
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0	3	0	0.000	0-1	0-1	0.000	0.889
NFC WEST
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Seattle Seahawks	3	0	0	1.000	2-0	1-0	0.222	0.222
St. Louis Rams	1	2	0	0.333	1-2	1-0	0.333	0.444
San Francisco 49ers	1	2	0	0.333	1-1	0-1	0.333	0.667
Arizona Cardinals	1	2	0	0.333	1-2	0-1	0.667	0.667
x-clinched playoff spot, y-clinched division title, z-clinched first round bye, c-clinched conference title

Interesting Notes:

• The AFC East has not lost a single game to an out-of-division foe. 
• Both the Saints and Seahawks have two-game leads in their respective divisions. 
• Both of Detroit's wins have come against winless opponents. 
• Of the 6 teams to make the playoffs in the NFC last season, Seattle is 3-0 and the other 5 teams are a combined 3-12. 
• In contrast, no AFC team that made the playoffs in 2012 currently has a losing record. 

A Quick Look Ahead to Week 4:
Seattle at Houston (Sunday 1:00 PM) - Seattle looks to prove it can win big games on the road. Houston looks to prove they're worthy of the pre-season contender hype.
Chicago at Detroit (Sunday 1:00 PM) - Chicago looks to put an early strangle-hold on the NFC North. 

New York Jets at Tennessee (Sunday 4:05 PM) - Two surprisingly over-.500 teams battle it out in a late Sunday game.

Miami at New Orleans (Monday 8:30 PM) - The only battle of undefeateds in week 4.