NFL Picks, Week 16

Atlanta (-3.5) over DETROIT
I figured there was no way Detroit would lose last week to a team coming off a 58-0 loss. They promptly lost to Arizona by 28. Atlanta is still not as good as their record, but right now, Detroit isn't even playing as well as their 4-10 record.

New Orleans (+3) over DALLAS 
I'm not convinced Dallas has turned over a new leaf and is no longer the team that chokes in biug moments. I also think their secondary is a terrible matchup for the Saints passing attack.

GREEN BAY (-12.5) over Tennessee
I don't love the Packers over most anybody with this high of a spread, but I don't trust Jake Locker to limit turnovers against a getting-healthy defense with his accuracy problems.

Indianapolis (-7) over KANSAS CITY
The Colts still have something to play for (a win gets them into the playoffs), Kansas City does not. Oh, and then there's the fact that the Chiefs were shut out by Oakland last week.

MIAMI (-5) over Buffalo
This is my second chance to pick against a team that gave up at least 50 points to the Seahawks the week before. Last week doing so went very badly (thanks, Lions), but I push on this week undeterred.

San Diego (+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS
When both teams are terrible, I'm inclined to take the points. When the favored team is wrangling with cosmic forces beyond their understanding by choosing Greg McElroy over Tim Tebow...I'm even more inclined to take the points.

Washington (-6.5) over PHILADELPHIA
I don't have any faith in Philadelphia's ability to slow down RG3.

Cincinnati (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH 
I was all set to choose Pittsburgh in this game, intending to take a shot at Cincinnati's poor strength of victory this season. But then I took a look at Pittsburgh's W's this season, and it looks very similar (not altogether surprising, given that 14 of their 16 games are the same). Really, Pittsburgh's SOV only looks better because they beat the Bengals the first time and Baltimore once, and Cincy could very well beat the Ravens next weekend. In the end, the Bengals are playing slightly better right now so I'll take the points.

TAMPA BAY (-3) over St. Louis
Last year when Tampa rolled over in a late season game, they had so little respect for their coach they would follow it up with another lay-down. For all of Greg Schiano's faults, putting up with BS efforts doesn't seem to be one of them.

CAROLINA (-8.5) over Oakland
One team is playing well, the other can only beat the Chiefs. It's true, since October 28, the Raiders have beaten the Chiefs twice and lost their other 6 games.

New England (-14.5) over JACKSONVILLE
I don't love the high spread, but if Bill Belichick lets Tom Brady dress for this game, I don't see how he can help but throw for at least 250 yards and 3 touchdowns.

HOUSTON (-7.5) over Minnesota
Adrian Peterson is a man on a mission. And Houston's defense hasn't been the same since they lost Brian Cushing. But as soon as the Texans put any pressure on the Vikings (say an 8-10 point lead), Christian Ponder will crumble.

DENVER (-13) over Cleveland
The Browns couldn't stop Kirk Cousins at home last weekend. Now they're going to stop Peyton Manning at altitude? Sorry, Cleveland.

Chicago (-5.5) over ARIZONA
Arizona's defense is perfectly capable of turning Jay Cutler into Turnover Jay Cutler, but Chicago's defense won't let Ryan Lindley do anything (heck, Detroit's defense didn't) and Chicago has too much at stake to implode completely against half of a team.

New York Giants (-2.5) over BALTIMORE 
One team is remarkably inconsitent. The other, frankly, just isn't that good right now. Too many injuries and too much Flacco.

SEATTLE (+1) over San Francisco 
The 49ers are coming off of a huge cross country road win over the Patriots which essentially gave them the division title. Now they have to travel to Seattle, a team that is making itself in the image of the 49ers. Really, Seattle is a step behind the 49ers everywhere but quarterback. While Colin Kaepernick is going into his 6th start, Russell Wilson is on his 15th. Plus, Seattle needs this game so much more than San Francisco does. Seattle is 0-3 vs San Francisco under Harbaugh, losing last year 19-17 in week 16 at home, and falling 13-6  in San Francisco on Thursday night in week 7 this season. Seattle needs to prove to themselves that they can get over the 49er hump, and needs a win to clinch a playoff berth.

Most importantly, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all. With all that has happened in the last week and month, make sure to hug your family and friends extra tight when you see them for the holidays, and keep those who cannot in your thoughts and prayers.

Midweek Season record: 7-8-2 (.471)
Last week: 10-6 (.625)
Season: 95-121-8 (.442)