NFL Picks, Week 14

BUFFALO (-3) over St. Louis
This is a tougher game to predict than it seems on the surface. Which Rams team is going to show up? The one that went 1-0-1 against the 49ers? Or the one that got stomped at home by the Jets almost 3 weeks ago? Add in their road woes (0-3 outside of the division) and their susceptibility to the run, and I can't pick the Rams, even though the Bills have been such a disappointment this year.

CINCINNATI (-3) over Dallas
This one is much simpler. Do I trust the team that has allowed 1 non-garbage-time touchdown in the last month, or the team that struggles to stay out of its own way?

CLEVELAND (-6.5) over Kansas City
Does Kansas City have a letdown going on the road a week after the emotional wringer of a weekend, or does Cleveland get overwhelmed by their recent success? I'll side with Cleveland, given that I don't see Brady Quinn duplicating his success against the underrated Browns secondary.

INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5) over Tennessee
I've picked against Luck for weeks now and then gone on to watch him beat significantly better teams than Tennessee. Consider my lesson learned...for this week anyway.

Chicago (-3) over MINNESOTA
Russell Wilson may have made the Bears defense look old and tired in Seattle's win last week. But I have seen Russell Wilson play, quarterback, and Christian Ponder, you're no Russell Wilson.

TAMPA BAY (-7.5) Philadelphia
Philadelphia needed a last minute punt return touchdown to cover a 10-point spread against Dallas last week. Tampa Bay is a much more disciplined team than Dallas is.

WASHINGTON (-2.5) over Baltimore
Two things bother me about Baltimore in this game: 1) Joe Flacco is on the road. His road numbers in 6 games this year? 121 completions in 219 attempts. 55.3% completion percentage for 1238 yards (5.65 yards per attempt). 4 TDs, 4 INTs. And that's against Philadelphia, Kansas City, Houston, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and San Diego. Washington's defense may not be able to stop anybody, but Joe Flacco can't throw on anybody on the road, either. 2) Baltimore's defense hasn't stopped anybody, including Charlie Batch last week, and now they have to deal with RG3 in Mike Shanahan's offense. No thank you.

Atlanta (-3.5) over CAROLINA
It seems to be too much to ask for Atlanta to put forth a dominating, "leave no doubt" blowout win, but they should be able to keep the Panthers comfortably at bay.

JACKSONVILLE (+2.5) over New York Jets 
While being on the road and away from the unruly (and absolutely correct) fans calling for his job all game long can only help Sanchez, his confidence is already shattered to the point that Chad Henne is the better quarterback in this matchup, despite being Chad Henne.

PITTSBURGH (-7.5) over San Diego
With Big Ben back, even if the Steelers don't want to expose him to risk of injury with their gameplan, his mere presence means the Chargers can't simply key on the running game. Without that decided advantage, and with Philip Rivers taking Christmas generosity to new heights all season-long, this won't be a contest.

Miami (+10) over SAN FRANCISCO
Miami's defense will force Colin Kaepernick to do the lion's share of the work to win this game. The Dolphins have done a great job of shutting down their opponents' rushing games all season long. That doesn't translate to a blowout win for the 49ers, even with the Dolphins traveling across the country for this game.

SEATTLE (-10) over Arizona
Yikes. Arizona's defense is really very good, but their offense is so bad. I would have preferred Ken Whisenhunt to continue the Ryan Lindley starting quarterback experiment for another week, but apparently the Cardinals do actually watch their own tape. The Russell Wilson of the first half of the season would struggle in this game, and Seattle would win something like 19-13. The Russell Wilson of the last month and a half? He just performs, no matter the defense. With this being a home game for the Seahawks, I'm going to trust them to play to their potential. Even as I'm covering my eyes while making this pick.

New Orleans (+5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
I say Drew Brees bounces back from that atrocious performance last Thursday and has a more typical Drew Brees game. This feels like one of those quarterback who gets the ball last wins games, given the Giants have looked so uninspiring recently.

Detroit (+7) over GREEN BAY
The injuries are getting to Green Bay. To their credit, they are overcoming the loss of so many players and finding ways to grind out victories. What they aren't doing is running away from teams like they did last year. I expect the Packers to win this game, but Detroit has the firepower to keep it close for 60 minutes.

NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) over Houston
I trust the Patriots to come through in the big moment more than the Texans with the game in New England. If this game were in Houston, I'd be picking the Texans.

This week: 1-0
Last week: 6-10 (.375)
Season: 80-105-7 (.435)