NFL Coaches Draft, Part 1

It's an exciting weekend for NFL fans, especially the fans of the 20 teams who did not make the playoffs lasts eason. The NFL draft brings hope for these fans, gives even the worst team in NFL history its time in the sun, and gets people jonesing for football again, even though we've just started baseball season.

Like many of the draft "experts" I have no idea what I'm talking about once we get passed the first 10 picks or so. Unlike those "experts", I'm not going to make up a mock 1st round of the draft to try and cash in on this upcoming weekend. Instead, I present an alternate scenario: Imagine all coaches became free agents at midnight tonight, and that instead of letting free agency determine which team gets which coach, they hold a draft using the original 1st round draft order in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Now this draft order won't look exactly the same as the order from Saturday's first round. I backed out all trades as it didn't make much sense for Philadelphia to draft 2 head coaches. I also eliminated trades from consideration, as I'm not going more than 1 round here (for head coaches only), so there isn't much incentive for any team to trade back.

I also had to limit my scope on what coaches would be available for this draft, so i settled on anyone who has been an active head coach of a team for at least 1 game from the beginning of the 2008-2009 season through last weekend, or who has been suggested as a viable candidate during the coaching seraches this offseason. This means coaches who don't currently have work like Tony Dungy, Bill Cowher, and Mike Shanahan were all viable options for this exercise.

Below is the first half of the first round in the NFL Coaches Draft, Part 2 will come tomorrow.

1) Detroit Lions: Bill Belichick (NE)
When you’ve made history as the worst team in NFL history, you need to tear down and rebuild. No coach has proven to be better at that than Bill Belichick. Sure, maybe he’s not quite the all knowing guru he was from 2001-2004, but he took a bad team, turned it into a Super Bowl winner in 2 years, and a consistent winner in 4. The Lions would kill for that (if, you know, they had any sort of killer instinct) right now.

2) St. Louis Rams: Andy Reid (Phi)
Is Andy Reid the 2nd best coach on this list? The last 2 minutes of an NFL game would say no. But Andy Reid represents stability and a system that puts a team in the running more often than not. The Rams may not be record-breaking bad, but I’ve seen train wrecks with less chaos. After the Mike Martz roller coaster and the Scott Linehan free-fall, the Rams need to establish a solid foundation. Like him or hate him, Philadelphia is a stable program. That he did that in the face of Philly fans is an even greater accomplishment.

3) Kansas City Chiefs: Bill Cowher (FA)
Kansas City is rebuilding and changing to a 3-4 defense. Why not grab the top coach out there from this system? Cowher has experience working alongside a strong GM from his Pittsburgh days, and you know he’s going to assemble a strong team based around a strong defense.

4) Seattle Seahawks: Mike Tomlin (Pitt)
Unlike many of the other teams picking high in the draft, Seattle isn’t looking to tear things down and start over, they’re looking to reload with their established players and make another run. Tomlin has shown he can enter into an established situation, replacing a coach who has been there forever, and instill his ideas and system without totally tearing down the existing foundation. Granted Seattle isn’t nearly as well off as Pittsburgh was 2 years ago, but if you’re looking for quick success without gutting your team, Tomlin has proven himself under these exact circumstances.

5) Cleveland Browns: Mike Holmgren (FA)
Cleveland needs a lot of things, but first it needs an identity. Since they came back into the league in ’99, the team hasn’t had anyone to rally around. Tim Couch? Kelly Holcomb? Andra Davis (exactly, who is Andra Davis)? The identity for this team is staph bacteria, as the team has had about 8 cases in the past couple of years. A franchise quarterback would give this team something to get behind, and Holmgren is the top coach available in finding and grooming a QB. Maybe it’s Derek….well, maybe it’s Brady Quinn, or maybe it’s a 2010 draftee, but Holmgren will figure it out.

6) Cincinnati Bengals: Tony Dungy (FA)
The Bengals have been irrelevant for a long time, and they’ve been irrelevant in spite of some fantastic offensive seasons from Chad 85, TJ Whosyourmomma, Carson Palmer, even Jon Kitna. The defense has been another story. They brought in defensive guru Marvin Lewis to try and change the culture, but that hasn’t worked. Given another shot, Cincy goes with THE defensive guru of the last 15 years. As an added bonus, they also get perhaps the most respected coach of the past 15 years. If Tony Dungy can’t make the Bengals into a respectable franchise, then there’s clearly no hope.

7) Oakland Raiders: Jeff Fisher (Tenn)
Really, the correct answer here is Tom Cable, because who else would be willing to work for the sea monster that is 185-year-old Al Davis? So for the purposes of this exercise we’re going to assume Davis has returned to his home planet. Dungy would have been the perfect candidate to fix Oakland, but CIncy already snapped him up. Fisher is an interesting case: he is the longest tenured coach in the league, but he doesn’t have that one facet of the game he’s known for. Cowher and Dungy are known for their defenses. Holmgren is a QB and west coast offense guru. Belichick is lethal with a video camera. Fisher just is. His teams don’t underachieve. They’re not always within spitting distance of a title, but when they have the talent, they won’t squander it. Fisher coaxed a playoff berth out of the walking disaster known as Vince Young at quarterback. If Jim Mora gets credit for winning with Mike Vick at QB, Fisher should be up for a Nobel Prize. Give Fisher some time, and he’ll pull Oakland out of the doldrums.

8) Jacksonville Jaguars: Mike Shanahan (FA)
This was a playoff team 2 years ago. The crux of that team was solid defense and a rushing game that could hold its own in Pamplona. Last year the running game fell apart due to OL injuries, and the defense crumbled under the weight. Enter Shanahan. No coach has coaxed this high a level ofrushing attack out of refuse like Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson. Give Shanahan these parts, and Jacksonville is right back in the thick of it. The downside is Shanahan isn’t going to be that helpful to the D, but with the strong core Jacksonville has on that side of the ball, that weakness shouldn’t hurt the Jags.

9) Green Bay Packers: Ken Whisenhunt (Arz)
The solid guys are off the board, so now you’re looking for the hot hand, or the fresh young minds. Whisenhunt qualifies as both. He’s in his 2nd year in the desert and has already taken the hapless Cardinals within 3 minutes of a Super Bowl win. Whisenhunt has shown the ability to survey his team and find the right combinations to maximize the team’s potential. Whether it’s a 37 year old quarterback, a washed up running back who had earlier been benched, or a renewed commitment to special teams, Whisenhunt has pushed all the right buttons in his 2 years at the helm. Green Bay is still getting out from under the shadow of the Brett, and Whisenhunt has experience throwing off the yoke of the past.

10) San Francisco 49ers: Gary Kubiak (Hou)
Many, many different ways the 49ers can go here, but this team is going nowhere until they can get their quarterback situation straightened out. Maybe…well, probably, the solution to their quarterback quagmire is not currently on their roster. But maybe Shaun Hill can work out, or maybe Alex Smith isn’t Ryan Leaf 2.0. Kubiak had Houston competing with Sage Rosenfels in a division featuring Tennessee and Indianapolis. Kubiak is a risk because Houston hasn’t had a winning season yet, but if he can stabilize the quarterback position in San Francisco, contention will follow.

11) Buffalo Bills: Tom Coughlin (NYG)
Buffalo needs a coach who can a) limit the excuses for poor play since the Music City Miracle in 1999, b) handle a WR who thinks he’s bigger than the team, and c) not be intimidated by the Patriot juggernaut. Coughlin won’t tolerate excuses (even though his teams are always good for a moronic penalty a game), won a Super Bowl with big contributions from Plaxico Burress (and while TO is a handful, he’s never shot himself in the leg), and took down the Patriots at their peak.

12) Denver Broncos: Lovie Smith (Chi)
This job was significantly different before McDaniels-Cutler I. What was a team with a lethal offense and terrible defense is now a team with a giant ? on offense and a terrible defense. One month ago, Lovie Smith is not the right coach for this team, but now he is. He can handle Kyle Orton as his quarterback (he was able to handle Rex Grossman as his quarterback, the guy must be a saint), and he will re-tool the defense in short order. This will entail a step backward for the Broncos, but this is the shortest way to get back to contention. Rebuilding the offense around another quarterback will take longer, so Lovie is the choice for Denver.

13) Washington Redskins: Rex Ryan (NYJ)
Rex Ryan has been the genius behind the Ravens’ defense for years, and the NFC East is all about hardnosed defense and limiting mistakes on offense. Danny Snyder’s checkbook is a force to be reckoned with in free agency, so a coach can stock his cupboard pretty quickly. Combine these 3 factors, and Rex Ryan is the right choice for the Redskins. Having succeeded with a rookie QB out of Delaware, Ryan should be able to construct a D that supports Jason Campbell to enough victories to be a factor in the NFC.

14) New Orleans Saints: Todd Haley (KC)
New Orleans has designed their team around a strong offense and a (they hope) good enough defense. Sean Payton has shown creativity in drawing up ways for his offense to attack its opponents, but Todd Haley took creative to another level with Arizona’s loaded passing game last year. Why not take Payton here? You get the sense that Payton already peaked with this team in his first year when the Saints got to the NFC title game. Haley is the hot hand right now, offensively, and combining him with Drew Brees (who almost topped Marino’s single season passing record last year) could lead to fireworks even greater than New Orleans has seen these last 3 years.

15) Houston Texans: Jim Schwartz (Det)
Houston has a tougher road to travel than most other teams sitting around .500, They have Tennessee, consistently dangerous Indianapolis, and lurking Jacksonville standing between them and a playoff berth. It’s not enough to be a good team, they have to get through arguably the toughest division in the NFL to get to the postseason. Schwartz knows this division cold from his time as Titans DC. He knows the ways to attack Peyton Manning, knows the Titans personnel better than any other available candidate, and has seen the Jaguars as much as anyone. If anyone is going to give the Texans a chance in this division right off the bat, it’s Schwartz.

16) San Diego Chargers: Sean Payton (NO)
While Payton may have peaked in New Orleans already, he has a brilliant offensive mind. The one thing he’s missing in New Orleans is a running back who can stay healthy for longer than 15 minutes. In San Diego, Payton would get a rich man’s Deuce McAllister (LDT) and a Bill Gates level rich man’s Reggie Bush in Darren Sproles. Add in Philip Rivers, Gates, Chambers, and Vincent Jackson, and his tools are at least as good as he has in the Big Easy. He also inherits a better defense that returns Shawn Merriman this season, so the offense doesn’t have to carry the entire load.