MSU vs UNC

First things first: Michigan State was the best team on the floor tonight.

Michigan State has the best hands (defensively) that I've seen in this tournament. If the officials on Monday call the game the same way both sets of officials did tonight, that's going to favor the Spartans big time. Many times a UConn player would make a strong move to the basket only to have the ball poked out. That and their commitment to rebounding carried MSU to game 64 of this tournament.

North Carolina didn't make last year's mistake of sleepwalking through the first half, they came out firing and hit enough 3 pointers to keep Villanova at bay. UNC increased their lead in the 2nd half with their defense, which is something last year's team was not able to do. Whether it's maturity, hunger, or a slight shift in talent, defense carried the day for Carolina blue.

As for the 2 fallen Big East squads, 3 pointers killed them. UConn shot 2-6 from downtown, and while Villanova showed a bigger commitment to the 3-pointer (27 attempts), they were similarly bricktastic at it (5 makes).

While both the winners today made strong statements, neither looked anything close to unbeatable. Michigan State did their level best to hand UConn the chance to get back in this game by being careless with the ball against UConn's desperate full court pressure in the last 4 minutes, while UNC also showed a surprising reluctance to put their foot on their opponent's throat, with turnovers and blown 2-3 foot shots galore in the 2nd half.

The analysts said Michigan State needs help to win the title. There is no question that UNC is the better team, and that if both teams bring their A-games, UNC wins by 8-12. However, if we see the same 2 teams on Monday that we saw tonight, Tyler Hansbrough will graduate with no national title. Michigan State's defense will pose many of the same problems Villanova's defense presented tonight. And Michigan State will shoot better than 18.5% from beyond the arc, putting more pressure on UNC's defense.

Will this translate into another MSU upset win over a #1 seed? UNC's shooters will spread the Michiga State defense, and UNC rebounds even better than UConn, helping negate a large MSU advantage tonight. It will come down to UNC's focus. As long as Roy has been on Tobacco Road, UNC has never played all 40 minutes in any game that I've seen. Villanova's inability to hit a 3 kept it from biting the Heels tonight, but Michigan State will be primed to take advantage of these lapses in focus. If Hansbrough's wide eyes and Lawson's quick feet can hold their teammates together, UNC walks away with this one, but if they slip up for a couple of 3-4 minute stretches, Tom Izzo will have the gameplan to keep MSU right in it.