Murray State 58 - Colorado State 41
Colorado State was able to eke (I always thought this word was spelled 'eeke', thanks Words with Friends!) their way to a slight halftime lead by hitting some threes and by watching Pierce Hornung grab 11 boards. This papered over the fact that CSU was turning the ball over too much and not getting any easy looks thanks to Murray State's defense. In the second half though, Murray State started rebounding, and Colorado State didn't curb their turnover habit.
Kansas State 70 - Southern Mississippi 64
This started out as the worst offensive basketball I've seen since Wisconsin last year (since they lost a game 36-33 last regular season). Southern Miss looked awful, and Kansas State did not take advantage, instead letting Southern Miss hang around. Then, at the end, the difference was dribble penetration. KSU did, Southern Miss could not. Down the stretch, their only baskets came off of steals and breakaways.
Louisville 69 - Davidson 62
I was surprised this game ended up this close, but Davidson never really threatened in the last quarter of this game. They were down enough that they needed to go for threes much earlier than they did.
Wisconsin 73 - Montana 49
Yeah, this one wasn't interesting, which made it okay when I couldn't really watch any of it.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Sunday, March 11, 2012
The Peyton Manning Derby
What has been assumed for months now has become official: The Indianapolis Colts have cut Peyton Manning. It’s not a surprise, because a few events came together to create the perfect storm of a situation where the Colts not only accepted this course of action, but really could not have chosen any other way:
- Manning has 4 neck surgeries since the end of the 2010 season, missing the entire 2011 season – This brought a Colts future without Manning into focus. If Manning doesn’t have to miss the 2011 season, the Colts likely win their division again, or at least make the playoffs. Bill Polian and his son keep their jobs, and the thought of drafting Manning’s successor remains the fantasy it had always been throughout Polian’s tenure.
- Andrew Luck decides to come out, and Indianapolis completely collapses without Manning, securing the #1 pick in the draft – This is what convinced the Colts to move on from Manning this year. Andrew Luck is seen as a surefire NFL QB, fairly or not. A team that would pass on Luck is a team that risks seeing Luck go on to have a Peyton Manning-like career. This isn’t Sam Bradford or Matthew Stafford, simply the top prospect at the most important position in the NFL. This is a quarterback who teams have been salivating over since the 2010 season. When Indy’s collapse put them in position to grab Luck, they had to decide between maybe 3-4 more years of Manning, or potentiall another 14-15 years of great quarterback play in Andrew Luck.
- Manning’s extension includes a $28 Million roster bonus to be paid by Thursday March 8 (tomorrow)if Manning is on the roster on that day – This is why Manning is being cut and not traded. If Manning is on the Colts’ roster tomorrow, he receives a $28 Million bonus on top of his $7.4 Million salary for 2012. His cap hit would have been $17 Million. Tough to swallow, but it could be done. However, if traded, all of Manning’s guaranteed money comes due for cap purposes, and his cap figure to not play for the Colts balloons. Since Indy couldn’t trade him until after the roster bonus due date, there was no way for Indy to get value for Manning without crippling their cap.
- Colts (soon to be Andrew Luck)
- Patriots (Tom Brady)
- Chargers (Philip Rivers)
- Raiders (Carson Palmer)
- Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger)
- Bengals (Andy Dalton)
- Texans (Matt Schaub)
- Titans (Jake Locker)
- Cowboys (Tony Romo)
- Giants (Eli Manning)
- Eagles (too invested in Vick)
- Rams (Sam Bradford)
- Bears (Jay Cutler)
- Lions (Matthew Stafford)
- Packers (Aaron Rodgers)
- Falcons (Matt Ryan)
- Panthers (Cam Newton)
- Saints (Drew Brees)
- Buccaneers (Josh Freeman)
- Redskins (Robert Griffin III thanks to their soon-to-be official trade with the Rams)
- Jaguars - Not happening. As they showed in ruining Blaine Gabbert’s rookie season, this team needs a TON of help.
- Vikings - Not happening. This team is simply too far away for Manning to spend the last few years of his career futilely chasing after the rest of the NFC North. The Vikings need to rebuild, and they know it.
- Browns - Not happening. Cleveland is cursed. Manning’s not going to a cursed franchise that has to play the Steeler and Raven defenses four times a year.
- Bills - Not happening. Manning is apparently taking even the weather of his new home team into account, and that eliminates Buffalo/Toronto from consideration. Manning doesn’t want to spend half of his season throwing in the winds and snow of upstate New York (or worse, Canada).
- Jets - Manning apparently told them no, probably because he doesn’t want to share a city with his brother (especially now that Eli wins the rings tiebreaker to every argument), doesn’t want to subject himself to New York City, and probably doesn’t want anywhere near the Jets freak show of a locker room. Unfortunately for Jets fans, Manning’s “Thanks but no thanks” caused GM Mike Tannenbaum to go on a bender during which time he drunk-dailed the agent for his current quarterback Mark Sanchez, and agreed to a 3-year extension that makes Sanchez one of the 6 or 7 highest paid quarterbacks in the league. Lay off the peach schnapps next time, Mike.
- Ravens - I just don’t see it. The Ravens could certainly use a QB upgrade over just good enough to get you beat when it counts Joe Flacco, but Baltimore barely has the cap room to keep their own guys they want to hold onto, and I don’t see Baltimore willing to remake its identity for Peyton.
- Chiefs - They make sense, but I don't see Scott Pioli making a big splashy move for a 35-year-old quarterback.
- 49ers - If Manning wants the chance to compete for Super Bowls, this is where he should go. But San Francisco isn’t going to remake themselves for Peyton (Harbaugh is way too proud to let Peyton run his offense), and don’t forget, Harbaugh is the quarterback Indianapolis kicked to the curb so they could draft Peyton. Does that mean Harbaugh wouldn’t entertain the possibility? I doubt it, but I also don’t see him rolling out the red carpet either.
- Seahawks - Seattle has done a great job rebuilding everywhere except the quarterback position. Tarvaris Jackson isn’t ever going to be close to a top-flight quarterback, and he will hold Seattle back as they try to take the next step from mediocre to true contender. The upgrade to Peyton would be sizeable, and Seattle (according to reports) is doing everything they can to get a meeting with Manning, but it hasn’t happened or been scheduled yet. Manning may be looking at the weather as a factor here, or he may be looking at Seattle’s very young OLine and last year’s sack numbers and shaking his head. That isn’t entirely fair as Tarvaris Jackson greatly enhanced those sack numbers because he has zero pocket awareness, but Seattle’s line is still young and learning. I’m going to say Seattle’s out because if Manning hasn’t set up a meeting by now, I don’t think he’s interested (even if he should be).
- Broncos - This is John Elway’s get out of Tebownation free card, if he wants one. Elway has never seemed enamored of Tim Tebow, even as the team made the final 8 in the playoffs. However, Elway would face a fan revolt if he benched Tebow going into next season unless the replacement was a bonafide guarantee. Someone who could not only produce, but who the fans could look at and say, “Okay, I love me some Tim Tebow, but this guy is a first ballot hall of famer, I’ll get behind him.” Peyton Manning is that guy, and he’s the only one of those guys who will be any sort of available. Peyton’s first meeting was with Denver so they have to be taken seriously. But they are lacking so many pieces on offense that I don’t see it. They need a running back, multiple receivers, maybe even a line piece or two.
- Cardinals - Good team (finished 8-8 with Kevin Kolb and John Skelton under center). Great weather (indoors on natural grass). Terrific receiver (Fitzgerald makes okay QBs look good, and remember what Kurt Warner did with him). Yeah their division has San Francisco in it, but no team can claim to be a true powerhouse yet, and it’s been a joke for a long time, so the path to the playoffs isn’t necessarily too difficult. The one downside is it’s in the NFC, so he could end up competing with little brother for playoff or Super Bowl berths.
- Dolphins -
I say this is where Peyton ends up. The Dolphins certainly have some negatives: they’re in a division with Tom Brady, they were only 6-10 last year, they will play some December road games in terrible weather. But they are well equipped to run his offense (Reggie Bush isn’t a pound it 25 times a game back, but is a terrific receiver, Brandon Marshall is a legit #1 and he’s got good other options including tight end Anthony Fasano). The line is pretty decent-to-good, and the defense kept them in a lot of games last season. The weather is terrific, and it’s near his family (Manning has a house near Miami already). But the #1 reason I believe Manning will go to Miami?
They. Are. Desperate. The Dolphins are begging for some good news. Owner Stephen Ross went after Jim Harbaugh and got rebuffed last season. He tried for Jeff Fisher this year and Fisher chose St. Louis. Ross needs something to sell to the fans so they won’t all think, “Another season middling along and staring up at Tom Brady and the Patriots. Bottom line, Manning may prefer Denver or Arizona, but if he takes a meeting with Miami, they will not let him get back on the plane. They will do whatever it takes to override whatever doubts he has (sign Reggie Wayne? Sure! Dallas Clark? Sure! Jeff Saturday? No problem!), and I believe Peyton Manning will be wearing a Miami uniform on opening weekend in September.
Saturday, February 25, 2012
2012 NFL Draft 1st Round Order
Yesterday the necessary coin flips were completed, so the draft order is now official:
Notes on the order:
-
Indianapolis -
St. Louis -
Minnesota -
Cleveland -
Tampa Bay -
Washington -
Jacksonville -
Miami -
Carolina -
Buffalo -
Kansas City -
Seattle -
Arizona -
Dallas -
Philadelphia -
New York Jets -
Cincinnati (from Oakland) -
San Diego -
Chicago -
Tennessee - Cincinnati
- Cleveland (from Atlanta)
-
Detroit -
Pittsburgh -
Denver -
Houston -
New England (from New Orleans) -
Green Bay -
Baltimore -
San Francisco - New England
-
New York Giants
Notes on the order:
- Miami and Carolina were tied for the #8 spot (same record and same strength of schedule). Miami won the coin flip and with pick 8th in the first round.
- Kansas City and Seattle were likewise tied for the #11 spot. Kansas City won this coin toss and will pick 11th in the first round.
- Cincinnati has two picks in the first round because they own Oakland's pick (#17) as part of the 2011 Carson Palmer trade.
- Cleveland has two picks in the first round because they own Atlanta's pick (#22) as part of a 2011 draft-day trade which netted the Falcons Julio Jones.
- New England has two picks in the first round because they own New Orleans' pick (#27) as part of a 2011 draft-day trade which netted the Saints Mark Ingram.
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Congratulations Cortez Kennedy!
Cortez Kennedy was elected to the pro football hall of fame yesterday. Football doesn't send players in with an association to a team like baseball does. If they did, Kennedy would be the 2nd Seahawk, after Steve Largent, and the first I got to see play in games on TV, not just highlights.
Congrats, Tez!
Friday, February 3, 2012
The Super Bowl Pick
This is it, the end of the NFL season. The final game that will end the story of the 2011-2012 season and probably serve as the first thing people will remember about this season years down the road. More importantly, my postseason picks are right at .500 with this one game left. I pick it right, I get to salvage some of my pride from my (abridged) attempt at picking the games which started strong and faded swiftly in the last few weeks. I pick it wrong, and both my regular season and playoff picks will finish below .500.
Better connected people than I have spent almost 2 weeks picking apart these two teams and this game. And this year we have even more material than normal to comb through, as these two teams played each other back in week 9, with the Giants handing the Patriots their last loss (New England is 10-0 since then, including the playoffs).
Of all the matchups, statistics, and injuries that go into the outcome for Sunday’s game, here are the top 3 in my mind:
The injury: Rob Gronkowski’s high ankle sprain:
New England’s offense has been a well-oiled dynamic machine for years now (all the way back to 2007), and most of the credit for that goes to Tom Brady. However, this year Brady hasn’t been his heroic self as often as we’ve come to expect. Instead the main contributor to New England’s outstanding offense has been a tight end: Mr. I Am Party himself. Comparing this offense to the 2007 offense, Gronk has been part Randy Moss and part Wes Welker. He has both been the giant threat defenses have to allocate multiple resources to (Moss) but also a guy to rack up catches, serve as a security blanket to Brady (especially in the red zone), and generally confound the other team’s efforts to get the Patriot offense off the field. The good news? He’s going to play, I don’t see how there can be any doubt about that. The bad news: There’s no way he’s close to 100%, and if he’s severely limited, the Patriots offense will suffer considerably.
The matchup: New England’s OL versus New York’s DL:
The Giants lost 7 games to other NFC teams in the regular season. They were swept by the Redskins, lost at home to Seattle, and dropped 4 in a row during the second half of the season. However, they dealt with injuries to their vaunted DL throughout much of the season, and now everybody’s healthy. That’s what has allowed New York to rip their way through the playoffs. Yes, the offense has certainly done its part, but it’s the defensive line that makes the Giants run: they are talented, and they are deep. This is the same formula that allowed the Giants to upset the undefeated Patriots back in February, 2008. Some of the faces are even the same.
New England’s offensive line has done a good job keeping heat off of Brady, but they haven’t been tested like they will be against New York on Sunday. I expect the Patriots to call a good number of quick throws and outlet throws to combat the pass rush. The problem is, the best way to neutralize the Giants pass rush is to run the ball at them. They aren’t very good at defending the run. San Francisco ran the ball a lot and was able to take advantage of a couple of big plays to Vernon Davis when the Giants brought more players closer to the line. Why is this a problem? New England doesn’t want to get into a grind it out game any more than the Giants want them to do it. It plays to the Patriots’ weaknesses just like it plays to the Giants’.
The storyline: The Giants have played this game before…and won convincingly:
The Giants are playing a team they met in the regular season who has a poor running game, a sieve-like defense that contains damage by forcing turnovers and FG attempts, and one of the (and maybe the) top quarterback(s) in the game. Sound familiar? It should.
Green Bay and the Patriots were essentially carbon copies of each other this season: A team with a prolific offense and a defense that couldn’t stop anyone (especially through the air) but could contain the damage enough to allow the offense to win the game for the team. However, the Packers were better at it than the Patriots…and the playoff Giants destroyed them at home.
Honestly, the best thing New England can point at to refute the above paragraph is Rob Gronkowski. He’s a better talent than the Green Bay offense can lay claim to (outside of the quarterback position, of course), and can single-handedly change the course of the game given his size and skill package. Unfortunately, he’s hurt, and while he will play, he won’t be near 100% 2 weeks after suffering a high ankle sprain. Can he make a few big plays on Sunday? Sure. Can he effect what the defense is doing play after play for 4 quarters? I don’t see it.
So if the offense is going to run into the buzz saw that has been the Giants defense this postseason, can the New England defense do enough to win the game? Recent history suggests yes, as that is exactly what happened in the AFC Championship game against the Ravens, and the yonly gave up 7 points to the Broncos. There’s even precedent for a terrible regular season defense turning it on in the playoffs and carrying at least its fair share of the burden on the way to a Super Bowl win: the 2006-07 Indianapolis Colts. The problem with this line of thought is the opposing quarterbacks the New England defense has achieved this rebirth against: Tim Tebow and Joe Flacco. Tebow is a great story, but not a good quarterback. Flacco is mediocre. Eli Manning, this season, is a top-5 QB.
I believe the Giants will jump out to an early 10 point lead and the Patriots will spend most of the last 2-2.5 quarters chipping away at that lead. The Pats will mount a comeback, and will get it down to a one-score game in the 4th quarter, but ultimately the comeback will fall short. And so, the pick is...
New York Giants (+3) over New England
Final Score: Giants 27, Patriots 23
MVP: Eli Manning
And an early Happy birthday to my son, Miles, who turns 1 on Sunday!
Postseason: 5-5
Regular Season: 51-55-4 (.482)
Better connected people than I have spent almost 2 weeks picking apart these two teams and this game. And this year we have even more material than normal to comb through, as these two teams played each other back in week 9, with the Giants handing the Patriots their last loss (New England is 10-0 since then, including the playoffs).
Of all the matchups, statistics, and injuries that go into the outcome for Sunday’s game, here are the top 3 in my mind:
The injury: Rob Gronkowski’s high ankle sprain:
New England’s offense has been a well-oiled dynamic machine for years now (all the way back to 2007), and most of the credit for that goes to Tom Brady. However, this year Brady hasn’t been his heroic self as often as we’ve come to expect. Instead the main contributor to New England’s outstanding offense has been a tight end: Mr. I Am Party himself. Comparing this offense to the 2007 offense, Gronk has been part Randy Moss and part Wes Welker. He has both been the giant threat defenses have to allocate multiple resources to (Moss) but also a guy to rack up catches, serve as a security blanket to Brady (especially in the red zone), and generally confound the other team’s efforts to get the Patriot offense off the field. The good news? He’s going to play, I don’t see how there can be any doubt about that. The bad news: There’s no way he’s close to 100%, and if he’s severely limited, the Patriots offense will suffer considerably.
The matchup: New England’s OL versus New York’s DL:
The Giants lost 7 games to other NFC teams in the regular season. They were swept by the Redskins, lost at home to Seattle, and dropped 4 in a row during the second half of the season. However, they dealt with injuries to their vaunted DL throughout much of the season, and now everybody’s healthy. That’s what has allowed New York to rip their way through the playoffs. Yes, the offense has certainly done its part, but it’s the defensive line that makes the Giants run: they are talented, and they are deep. This is the same formula that allowed the Giants to upset the undefeated Patriots back in February, 2008. Some of the faces are even the same.
New England’s offensive line has done a good job keeping heat off of Brady, but they haven’t been tested like they will be against New York on Sunday. I expect the Patriots to call a good number of quick throws and outlet throws to combat the pass rush. The problem is, the best way to neutralize the Giants pass rush is to run the ball at them. They aren’t very good at defending the run. San Francisco ran the ball a lot and was able to take advantage of a couple of big plays to Vernon Davis when the Giants brought more players closer to the line. Why is this a problem? New England doesn’t want to get into a grind it out game any more than the Giants want them to do it. It plays to the Patriots’ weaknesses just like it plays to the Giants’.
The storyline: The Giants have played this game before…and won convincingly:
The Giants are playing a team they met in the regular season who has a poor running game, a sieve-like defense that contains damage by forcing turnovers and FG attempts, and one of the (and maybe the) top quarterback(s) in the game. Sound familiar? It should.
Green Bay and the Patriots were essentially carbon copies of each other this season: A team with a prolific offense and a defense that couldn’t stop anyone (especially through the air) but could contain the damage enough to allow the offense to win the game for the team. However, the Packers were better at it than the Patriots…and the playoff Giants destroyed them at home.
Honestly, the best thing New England can point at to refute the above paragraph is Rob Gronkowski. He’s a better talent than the Green Bay offense can lay claim to (outside of the quarterback position, of course), and can single-handedly change the course of the game given his size and skill package. Unfortunately, he’s hurt, and while he will play, he won’t be near 100% 2 weeks after suffering a high ankle sprain. Can he make a few big plays on Sunday? Sure. Can he effect what the defense is doing play after play for 4 quarters? I don’t see it.
So if the offense is going to run into the buzz saw that has been the Giants defense this postseason, can the New England defense do enough to win the game? Recent history suggests yes, as that is exactly what happened in the AFC Championship game against the Ravens, and the yonly gave up 7 points to the Broncos. There’s even precedent for a terrible regular season defense turning it on in the playoffs and carrying at least its fair share of the burden on the way to a Super Bowl win: the 2006-07 Indianapolis Colts. The problem with this line of thought is the opposing quarterbacks the New England defense has achieved this rebirth against: Tim Tebow and Joe Flacco. Tebow is a great story, but not a good quarterback. Flacco is mediocre. Eli Manning, this season, is a top-5 QB.
I believe the Giants will jump out to an early 10 point lead and the Patriots will spend most of the last 2-2.5 quarters chipping away at that lead. The Pats will mount a comeback, and will get it down to a one-score game in the 4th quarter, but ultimately the comeback will fall short. And so, the pick is...
New York Giants (+3) over New England
Final Score: Giants 27, Patriots 23
MVP: Eli Manning
And an early Happy birthday to my son, Miles, who turns 1 on Sunday!
Postseason: 5-5
Regular Season: 51-55-4 (.482)
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