link
Or, perhaps, his family got sick of him squeezing every last drop out of their family gatherings with his innovative ideas.
Whatever the case may be, I think two things are pretty clear:
1) Ohio State has landed on its feet less than a year after Tressel was forced out in disgrace. They secured a heck of a college football coach, and this has to indicate the sanctions that are coming won't be too bad (Lane Kiffin might have to suffer through some lean years to get a high profile job, Urban Meyer does not).
2) Meyer is going to be dogged by questions about his health and desire, and fairly so. That will all go away if/when he wins like he has at every other stop, but until that time, you better enjoy the ride, because it could end at any time.
Monday, November 28, 2011
Friday, November 25, 2011
NFL Picks, Week 12
Well this experiment did not go down in flames in week one, as I ended the week at .500. I can only hope that doesn't end up as my high-water mark. My history with March Madness, though, portends doom.
Home teams in CAPS
Houston (-6.5) over JACKSONVILLE
You see this game, and you immediately think about Matt Leinart. He's a party boy quarterback who doesn't treat his job with the respect it's due (allegedly, though Ken Whisenhunt sure believes it). Jacksonville's defense is legitimately good. They're at home. You have successfully talked yourself into the upset...and then you remember Blaine Gabbert is the other quarterback. And Wade Phillips has Houston's D playing well. It's not going to happen.
NY JETS (-9.5) Buffalo
The Jets are coming off of a terrible game against the Broncos, where Mark Sanchez handed the Broncos their only chance at staying in that game. However, the Bills are coming off of an atrocious month, including a 27-point loss to the Dolphins last week. This team is going down in flames, yet thanks to the most recent memory of Sanchez, the line isn't double digits. Thanks Mark!
CINCINNATI (-7) Cleveland
A real defense versus Colt McCoy? Yes please. I'd take two if I could. Can I? Please?
ATLANTA (-9.5) Minnesota
Like I said in the Thanksgiving pick post, going with the chalk too often makes me uneasy. If it were that simple, the betters would have the huge houses and millions, instead of the bookies. But this game features a team who desperately needs it to keep pace, and another team with a rookie QB and without it's best player. If Peterson were healthy, Minnesota has looked surprisingly frisky with Ponder under center. Without him, I just don't see it.
Arizona (+2.5) over ST. LOUIS
As of this post, Kevin Kolb hasn't been declared fit to play. I'm not sure it matters. The Rams are down to their 5th and 6th cornerbacks. John Skelton is perfectly capable of chucking the ball up to Larry Fitzgerald, and it's going to be hard for the Rams to stop it all game long. On the other side of the ball, the Rams will likely be missing both tackles, which doesn't do Steven Jackson any favors (kind of like his entire career).
Carolina (-3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
After this weekend, Indy plays at New England, at Baltimore, home against Tennessee and Houston, and finally at Jacksonville. This is probably their best shot at a win, at best they have one more shot afterwards. So, it really comes down to how beaten down Carolina and Cam Newton are. It says here that they're not too beaten down to beat on a team that's as hapless as Indy.
Tampa Bay (+3) over TENNESSEE
I have no idea what to make of Tampa Bay. They beat New Orleans, they get throttled by San Francisco. They have young talent, they stayed close-ish with Green Bay, but they seem to take two steps back after every step forward. Then again, their running back is actually trying (type 'LeGarrett Blount' into youtube if you don't believe me).
OAKLAND (-4) over Chicago
Caleb Hanie on the road? Only getting 4 points? No thanks.
SEATTLE (-3.5) over Washington
The Rex Cannon against the 12th man, after Seattle's run defense has put the clamps on his running game? Nah. Better question, what running back will Mike Shanahan inexplicably sit on his bench, simply to score another win over his sworn enemies, the fantasy football owners of America?
Denver (+6) over SAN DIEGO
So, if kneeling down as if in prayer in random places is "Tebowing", is throwing a ball at said person, but having it sail 15 yards past him and hitting a poor old lady instead, be considered "Riversing"?
New England (-3.5) over PHILADELPHIA
The Patriots pass defense can barely stop anyone. They stopped Tyler Palko though, and they'll contain Vince Young.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over KANSAS CITY
I take back what I said about having 2 helpings of the Bengals over McCoy. In the spirit of large Thanksgiving meals, I'll take six helpings of Pittsburgh's defense against Tyler Palko instead. New England held Palko to 3 points. That means Pittsburgh should hold him to -23 points.
New York Giants (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
Can't give a good reason for this one, just that, as soon as you think the Giants are done and buried, they emerge with a vengeance. Of course, once you think they have it made, they fall flat on their faces. They're coming off of 2 losses (including one to Vince Young), and few people will believe in them in New Orleans, so watch them win.
Last week: 6-6-2
This week: 2-1
Home teams in CAPS
Houston (-6.5) over JACKSONVILLE
You see this game, and you immediately think about Matt Leinart. He's a party boy quarterback who doesn't treat his job with the respect it's due (allegedly, though Ken Whisenhunt sure believes it). Jacksonville's defense is legitimately good. They're at home. You have successfully talked yourself into the upset...and then you remember Blaine Gabbert is the other quarterback. And Wade Phillips has Houston's D playing well. It's not going to happen.
NY JETS (-9.5) Buffalo
The Jets are coming off of a terrible game against the Broncos, where Mark Sanchez handed the Broncos their only chance at staying in that game. However, the Bills are coming off of an atrocious month, including a 27-point loss to the Dolphins last week. This team is going down in flames, yet thanks to the most recent memory of Sanchez, the line isn't double digits. Thanks Mark!
CINCINNATI (-7) Cleveland
A real defense versus Colt McCoy? Yes please. I'd take two if I could. Can I? Please?
ATLANTA (-9.5) Minnesota
Like I said in the Thanksgiving pick post, going with the chalk too often makes me uneasy. If it were that simple, the betters would have the huge houses and millions, instead of the bookies. But this game features a team who desperately needs it to keep pace, and another team with a rookie QB and without it's best player. If Peterson were healthy, Minnesota has looked surprisingly frisky with Ponder under center. Without him, I just don't see it.
Arizona (+2.5) over ST. LOUIS
As of this post, Kevin Kolb hasn't been declared fit to play. I'm not sure it matters. The Rams are down to their 5th and 6th cornerbacks. John Skelton is perfectly capable of chucking the ball up to Larry Fitzgerald, and it's going to be hard for the Rams to stop it all game long. On the other side of the ball, the Rams will likely be missing both tackles, which doesn't do Steven Jackson any favors (kind of like his entire career).
Carolina (-3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
After this weekend, Indy plays at New England, at Baltimore, home against Tennessee and Houston, and finally at Jacksonville. This is probably their best shot at a win, at best they have one more shot afterwards. So, it really comes down to how beaten down Carolina and Cam Newton are. It says here that they're not too beaten down to beat on a team that's as hapless as Indy.
Tampa Bay (+3) over TENNESSEE
I have no idea what to make of Tampa Bay. They beat New Orleans, they get throttled by San Francisco. They have young talent, they stayed close-ish with Green Bay, but they seem to take two steps back after every step forward. Then again, their running back is actually trying (type 'LeGarrett Blount' into youtube if you don't believe me).
OAKLAND (-4) over Chicago
Caleb Hanie on the road? Only getting 4 points? No thanks.
SEATTLE (-3.5) over Washington
The Rex Cannon against the 12th man, after Seattle's run defense has put the clamps on his running game? Nah. Better question, what running back will Mike Shanahan inexplicably sit on his bench, simply to score another win over his sworn enemies, the fantasy football owners of America?
Denver (+6) over SAN DIEGO
So, if kneeling down as if in prayer in random places is "Tebowing", is throwing a ball at said person, but having it sail 15 yards past him and hitting a poor old lady instead, be considered "Riversing"?
New England (-3.5) over PHILADELPHIA
The Patriots pass defense can barely stop anyone. They stopped Tyler Palko though, and they'll contain Vince Young.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over KANSAS CITY
I take back what I said about having 2 helpings of the Bengals over McCoy. In the spirit of large Thanksgiving meals, I'll take six helpings of Pittsburgh's defense against Tyler Palko instead. New England held Palko to 3 points. That means Pittsburgh should hold him to -23 points.
New York Giants (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
Can't give a good reason for this one, just that, as soon as you think the Giants are done and buried, they emerge with a vengeance. Of course, once you think they have it made, they fall flat on their faces. They're coming off of 2 losses (including one to Vince Young), and few people will believe in them in New Orleans, so watch them win.
Last week: 6-6-2
This week: 2-1
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Suck for Luck Picture, Week 11
| Rk | Team | W | L | T | Pct | SOS | Conf | Div |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indianapolis | 0 | 10 | 0 | .000 | .530 | 0-7 | 0-3 |
| 2 | Carolina | 2 | 8 | 0 | .200 | .530 | 1-7 | 0-2 |
| 3 | St. Louis | 2 | 8 | 0 | .200 | .540 | 1-7 | 0-2 |
| 4 | Minnesota | 2 | 8 | 0 | .200 | .570 | 2-5 | 0-4 |
| 5 | Arizona* | 3 | 7 | 0 | .300 | .460 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| 6 | Washington* | 3 | 7 | 0 | .300 | .460 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| 7 | Miami | 3 | 7 | 0 | .300 | .500 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| 8 | Jacksonville | 3 | 7 | 0 | .300 | .500 | 3-5 | 2-1 |
| 9 | Kansas City | 4 | 6 | 0 | .400 | .430 | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| 10 | Cleveland | 4 | 6 | 0 | .400 | .450 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| 11 | Philadelphia* | 4 | 6 | 0 | .400 | .530 | 4-5 | 3-1 |
| 12 | San Diego* | 4 | 6 | 0 | .400 | .530 | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| 13 | Seattle | 4 | 6 | 0 | .400 | .560 | 3-3 | 2-1 |
The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).
After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.
* designates two teams who would determine the higher pick between them via a coin flip.
Well, nothing's changed at the top of this list. Indy is still terrible. What is interesting is what's happened directly behind Indy.
For a long time, Miami was directly behind (or even with) the Colts, and Miami desperately needs a quarterback (sorry Matt Moore, but even you know it's true). But now, the next three teams are Carolina, St. Louis, and Minnesota, all of whom took a quarterback in the top half of the first round in 2010 or 2011. So perhaps this should be renamed the Matt Barkley/Robert Griffin III sweepstakes, as with these 3 teams in slots 2-4, anyone has a shot at them.
Next week we'll take a look at schedules and start assessing who's likely to end up where. In the meantime, I hope your Thanksgivings were everything you hoped they would be, and enjoy this Ravens-49ers defensive struggle as a second dessert.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
NFL Picks, Week 12 (Thanksgiving Edition)
Have a Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! I hope you are able to share Thanksgiving with family and friends, and that you have plenty in your lives to be thankful for.
Home teams in CAPS
Green Bay (-6.5) over DETROIT:
Detroit has been pretty hot at home, only the 49ers have emerged from Ford Field victorious this season. And Detroit matches up well with the Packers, as they are vulnerable to the run in order to wreak havoc on their opponent's passing game. Green Bay doesn't run, so that shouldn't hurt them. Green Bay will race out early, but even if Detroit can't keep up initially, they've already come back from 3 separate 17+ point 2nd half deficits. However, unless I'm given a good reason to, I can't go against Aaron Rodgers the way he is playing right now. It may look a lot like the opening night game against New Orleans, but that was good enough.
DALLAS (-7) over Miami:
For all the good Matt Moore has done these last 3 weeks, the Dolphins have given him good support in averaging over 101 yards rushing per game during their 3 game winning streak. They won't get there against Dallas, and Moore is not winning this game by himself. If he has to, you'll see why he lost his job to Jimmy Clausen last season.
BALTIMORE (-3) over San Francisco:
Honestly, I hate going with the chalk in all 3 of these games, because there's always one where something weird happens and the game ends up closer than it has any right to be. I was going to say Miami kept things tight, but I couldn't take Matt Moore against a decent defense on the road. That leaves Baltimore, and I could see San Francisco not letting Alex Smith do much of anything, keep the game close with their defense, and hope Smith outduels Flacco down the stretch. But this will be an emotional game, and the Ravens tend to get up for the emotional games.
Home teams in CAPS
Green Bay (-6.5) over DETROIT:
Detroit has been pretty hot at home, only the 49ers have emerged from Ford Field victorious this season. And Detroit matches up well with the Packers, as they are vulnerable to the run in order to wreak havoc on their opponent's passing game. Green Bay doesn't run, so that shouldn't hurt them. Green Bay will race out early, but even if Detroit can't keep up initially, they've already come back from 3 separate 17+ point 2nd half deficits. However, unless I'm given a good reason to, I can't go against Aaron Rodgers the way he is playing right now. It may look a lot like the opening night game against New Orleans, but that was good enough.
DALLAS (-7) over Miami:
For all the good Matt Moore has done these last 3 weeks, the Dolphins have given him good support in averaging over 101 yards rushing per game during their 3 game winning streak. They won't get there against Dallas, and Moore is not winning this game by himself. If he has to, you'll see why he lost his job to Jimmy Clausen last season.
BALTIMORE (-3) over San Francisco:
Honestly, I hate going with the chalk in all 3 of these games, because there's always one where something weird happens and the game ends up closer than it has any right to be. I was going to say Miami kept things tight, but I couldn't take Matt Moore against a decent defense on the road. That leaves Baltimore, and I could see San Francisco not letting Alex Smith do much of anything, keep the game close with their defense, and hope Smith outduels Flacco down the stretch. But this will be an emotional game, and the Ravens tend to get up for the emotional games.
NFC Playoff Picture, Week 11
| Rk | Team | W | L | T | Pct | Div | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 3-0 | 8-0 |
| 2 | San Francisco | 9 | 1 | 0 | .900 | 2-0 | 7-1 |
| 3 | New Orleans | 7 | 3 | 0 | .700 | 3-1 | 4-3 |
| 4 | Dallas | 6 | 4 | 0 | .600 | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| 5 | Detroit | 7 | 3 | 0 | .700 | 2-1 | 5-3 |
| 6 | Chicago | 7 | 3 | 0 | .700 | 2-2 | 6-3 |
| - | Atlanta | 6 | 4 | 0 | .600 | 1-2 | 4-4 |
| - | New York Giants | 6 | 4 | 0 | .600 | 1-2 | 3-4 |
| - | Seattle | 4 | 6 | 0 | .400 | 2-1 | 3-3 |
| - | Philadelphia | 4 | 6 | 0 | .400 | 3-1 | 4-5 |
| - | Tampa Bay | 4 | 6 | 0 | .400 | 2-1 | 3-5 |
Last week Houston, coming off of a win, took over the top seed in the AFC, and promptly lost Matt Schaub for the season, leaving their season in the hands of Matt Leinart. This week, Chicago comes off of a good win over the Chargers to keep pace with the Lions...and lose Jay Cutler for probably the rest of the regular season, leaving their season in the hands of Caleb Hanie or Josh McCown. Yeesh.
If not for Cutler's injury, I'd say the wild card race is down to 3 teams: Detroit, Chicago, and Atlanta. But with Chicago unlikely to keep their same pace up, the 2nd place NFC East team might have a chance at a wild card berth. Those teams are going to clobber each other though, bringing down the records of all involved.
Key Games this week:
Green Bay at Detroit - Who knew this Thanksgiving Day game was allowed to mean something? A Green Bay win here essentially clinches the division for them, but thanks to San Francisco, there will still be pressure on Green Bay to keep winning for HFA purposes.
New York Giants at New Orleans - The Giants need to keep pace with Dallas, while New Orleans wants to stay ahead of Atlanta. Plus, this could be a huge tiebreaker boost for the winner if both of these teams end up fighting for wild card positions.
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