Tuesday, November 8, 2011

AFC Playoff Picture, Week 9





























































































































AFC Playoff Picture
RkTeamWLTPctDivConf
1Cincinnati620.7501-05-1
2Houston630.6673-06-2
3New England530.6252-14-2
4Kansas City440.5002-13-3
5Baltimore620.7502-04-2
6Pittsburgh630.6670-24-3
-New York Jets530.6252-14-3
-Buffalo530.6251-13-2
-Tennessee440.5001-24-4
-San Diego440.5002-13-3
-Oakland440.5001-24-4


Okay, so what do we have here? If the season ended today, Cincinnati and Houston would have first round byes in the AFC. I'm going to be honest, I'm buying up all the Houston stock I can get. They have navigated an almost 6-game stretch without top receiver Andre Johnson and won 4 of those games (including a win over the Steelers). And their defense is no longer a complete joke. Say what you will about Wade Phillips as a head coach (and I have), but the man is a legit defensive coordinator.

Cincy, I'm not too sure about. I'd feel better about them if they had played Pittsburgh or Baltimore once at this point. But they haven't. And they have a rookie quarterback. He's doing a heck of a job, but he's still a rookie. Their defense is also legit, but I'm concerned that their offense will stall as their schedule gets tricky.

The AFC East is very interesting, with 3 teams at 5-3. New England desperately needs to pull out of their funk and soon, because if they drop this week's game to the Jets, the tiebreakers are going to start going against the men of Belichick.

For all the accolades Baltimore is getting for sweeping the Steelers, they're only a half game ahead of them right now. That's what losing to Jacksonville and Tennessee will do to you. On the plus side, they have quite a few H2H tiebreakers (Pittsburgh, Houston, Jets) should it come to that.

And congratulations, AFC West, your division leader just handed Miami its first win in a 31-3 disaster.

Key games this week:
Oakland at San Diego (Thurs) - Oakland can ill-afford another division loss. San Diego can ill-afford to have Philip Rivers continue playing like Ryan Leaf.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - A win here, and we can all start taking the Bengals for real.
New England at New York Jets - Honestly, I think the Patriots need this one more. New England has distanced themselves from the pack the past couple of years by taking care of business outside of the division better than anyone else. But this year, they're faltering there, which means their usual cushion is gone. In a true divisional dogfight, I'm not sure the Pats are as well equipped to handle his as the Jets, even with New England's enormous advantage at the quarterback position.

Monday, November 7, 2011

NFL, Week 9

As much as I do love the NFL, it's hard keeping track of what's going on with a baby in the house. Rather than carve out a half or a full day for watching various football games, I'm instead paying half attention to one game a day (usually the Pats game), keeping tabs on the Seahawks game (until they fall apart and the game gets out of hand), and watching the first half of the Sunday/Monday night game before going to bed so I can be ready if the little guy wakes up at 5:00 AM the next morning. Is it a jarring difference from past years? Absolutely. Would I go back? Heck no. So I'm still going to give NFL commentary, but I simply won't get to cover nearly as many games as in the past.

Buffalo has to be hoping the clock hasn't struck midnight on their Ivy League quarterback sensation, especially since they just handed him a fat extension. The fact of the matter is Fitzpatrick is limited, and great defenses (which the Jets can be) are going to give him trouble. But if he puts up his numbers against the mediocre defenses, that might be good enough to get the Bills a playoff spot. And that would be enormous progress in Buffalo/Toronto.

You watch the Saints when they're on, and you wonder how the heck they aren't right up there record-wise with the Packers. Then you remember they lost to these Bucs a few weeks back, and lost to the Rams (!) last week.

Oops, Miami. That win is going to cost you. Indy isn't even putting up a fight anymore. Hope for your sake Barkley comes out too. If I'm Kansas City, I'm not showing my face until next weekend's game after that disaster.

Carson Palmer, you have been Tebowed. When the Raiders traded for him, do you think anyone bothered to watch any film from the past 2-3 seasons? Was this trade mandated in Al Davis' will? Because it's right in his wheelhouse from the past decade, and not in the wheelhouse of anything approaching a savvy front office executive.

Eli Manning is being hailed as an elite quarterback. Not to take away from his SBXLIII-like 4th quarter, but he's still the quarterback that was shut out by the Pats' defense in the first half. The Pats defense couldn't shut out Boston College for a half right now.

Aaron Rodgers is amazing, but Phillip Rivers looks off somehow out there. In recent years, you knew San Diego would let you down in the end, but Rivers would always, ALWAYS put up his numbers. Even when he was without Jackson, Gates, Floyd, whoever, it didn't matter. Rivers produced. This year? He's holding them back.

The Ravens may be ready for a seat at the big boys table. They have always found a way to lose when confronted with the possibility of true success. This year, Joe Flacco and mates stepped up when Pittsburgh made its run, and the result is a season sweep of their hated rivals. They still have plenty of work to do to finally get a home playoff game in the Harbaugh era, and I'd worry that they consider their work done too soon. There's half a season left, and they only have a 1.5 game lead over Pittsburgh, and are tied with Cincinnati.

And finally, the Rams got 2 safeties in a quarter against the Cardinals, but scored no touchdowns and lost on a 99-yard punt return in overtime. That game simpy defies rational explanation, and any reason to have watched it.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

FIFA Women's World Cup Recap

Now that we've had a couple of days to digest everything, let's revisit just exactly what we saw over the course of the World Cup.

Worst excuse for a loss: This one goes to the North Korean women, who claimed they lost their opener to the United States because their team was struck by lightning during a training match on June 8. But wait, this story gets better.

Worst excuse for a positive steroids test: Those same 5 players who were struck by lightning? Apparently they accidentally ingested steroids while taking traditional Chinese medicines to counter the effects of the lightning.

Worst call of the Tournament: I covered this one already. It's no contest.

Biggest similarity between the women's game and the men's game: The inability of the officials to get enough offside calls correct. Marta's second goal against the USA was setup by a pass to a player in an offside position. The best Japanese chance in the final (before the actual goals) was incorrectly determined to be offside. The officials did a much better job of maintaining control of the games (they also weren't typically challenged as much in this department as the mens officials were), but these terrible calls stand out across gender lines.

Biggest disappointment: Has to be the German side. Undefeated in group play, 7 goals scored in 3 games...and they fall 1-0 to Japan in the quarterfinals. Some of the sting is relieved by the fact that Japan went on to win the whole thing, but that doesn't mean Germany should have bowed out that meekly when the Cup was on their home soil.

Worst coaching decision of the tournament: England's soon-to-be ex-coach Hope Powell's decision to call her players cowards for failing to volunteer quickly enough to take penalties at the end of their quarterfinal match against France. Putting aside the merits of her claim (we'll get to that), what possible good can come from this public quote? Even if she is going to step down from coaching the national team and oversee player development instead, how does this do anything other than make your job reaching players harder?

Most ridiculous coaching strategy of the tournament: Calling for volunteers to take the penalty kicks at the end of the elimination games. Both England and Brazil did this, and both (unsurprisingly) lost their penalty shootouts. The players have just pushed themselves physically, mentally, and emotionally for 120 minutes, and as a coach, you're going to leave the entire responsibility of organizing your team for the penalty kicks in their hands? There's only one reason to do this: to be able to say afterwards that a loss isn't your fault, the players made the decision. These types of decisions are the reason a team has a coach. The players are already dealing with enough on their plates, a good coach should seek to unburden responsibility from the players whenever possible. If the coach doesn't have an idea of who should be taking these kicks, then they haven't done enough preparation to be ready for this situation, which is another colossal failure on his/her part.

As an aside, the United States was 180 degrees away from this reprehensible practice, though I still have major questions about how they handled the PKs in the final. After the Brazil match, we learned that the US goalkeeping coach is in charge of penalties, and had his list of who to take them ready: Boxx, Lloyd, Wambach, Rapinoe, and Cheney (Cheney was out of the Brazil match by the end so Kreiger was slotted 5th instead). At the end of the final, Rapinoe was unavailable, and the coaching staff plugged in Tobin Heath (who had all of less than 15 minutes under her belt in the game, and slotted her 3rd. Now I acknowldge that the US had a plan based on data, so I am reluctant to criticize the selection too much, but I will make these two points: 1) Heath was as cold as anyone, which puts her at a distinct disadvantage, and 2) your best finisher, player of the game, AND most confident player going into the shootout (Alex Morgan) wasn't in your top 5 kick takers.

Did the United States lose because they took Japan lightly? I've heard this theory, but I don't agree with it. When a team comes in overconfident, they tend to coast through the game, relying on superior ability or skill to win the game for them. The US cannot be accused of a poor work rate in that final match. They did a tremendous job choking off Japan's attempts at buildup through the midfield all game long. An overconfident team would have been scrambling and chasing the Japanese all over the field while Japan maintained possession of the ball. The United States denied Japan the possession game they wanted. Yes, for the USA the distribution in their own half was sloppy, but that was the case in every knockout-stage game they played. The back four and the two central midfielders (Boxx and Lloyd) gave away countless balls to the opposing team in their own half. The US dodged countless bullets thanks to sloppiness all tournament long, they simply didn't dodge enough of these bullets in the final.

So, what happened then? I believe the failure of the US to win the World Cup came down to 2 general points:

1) The US was overwhelmed by the chance to escape from the giant shadow of the 1999 squad. For the entire World Cup the US didn't have time to be compared with the golden girls of 1999. They were the last team of the 16 to qualify thanks to a shocking loss to Mexico in regional qualifying. Then they were unable to win their group, the first time a US team had ever lost a group stage game. Then came the Brazil heroics, and the US had carved out their own identity as the gritty, never-say-die ladies of 2011. Even against France, it was still them riding the wave from the quarterfinal match. But when it came time to play the final, all of a sudden the US was favored, and the conversations comparing them to the 1999 team were flying around. I think they finally got ahead of themselves a bit, and got overwhelmed by the moment. I believe this manifested itself in their poor finishing, which was part luck but also part the shots they were taking. Everyone was trying to be the hero (taking some terrible angle shots) instead of making the extra pass. Even Megan Rapinoe fell victim to this, and she spent the entire tournament looking to make the key pass to free up someone else to take the shot.

Interestingly, a common criticism of the US men's team is that they tend to look to make the extra pass when the proper decision is to put the ball on net.

2) So much was made of coach Pia Sundhage's determination to make the USA win with a possession game, after years and years of them outworking and letting their athleticism overwhelm the opposition. It is absolutely a necessary step to take if the US is to remain a top contender, and it's not a change that will happen smoothly overnight. However, I believe this team took it too far the other direction and tried to play possession even in their own end, to their detriment. Time after time I saw pass after pass from the back four, Boxx, and Lloyd go directly to the other team in their own half of the field. The sequence that led to the first Japanese goal started with a Rampone giveaway less than 30 yards from her own net. As I said before, the move to a more possession-based game is laudable and necessary...but with 10 minutes left in the final, you should be making safer plays than that.

Finally, was it a choke? Yes, and that's not meant to take it away from Japan. They earned the win, and out-destinied the USA, if you will. But consider:

- The criminal lack of finishing touch (and terrible shoot vs pass decisions) displayed by the USA. This game could easily have been 3-0 15 minutes into the match.

- How easily each of Japan's goals could have been prevented. On the first one, Rachel Buehler violates a cardinal rule of defending: Never EVER clear the ball across your goal unless you are putting it into the seats. All she had to do was toe-poke it over the end line for a corner kick. Future events notwithstanding, no one on the American team should have been afraid of a Japanese corner kick.

For the second goal, Buehler simply lost Sawa on the corner kick. All she has to do is stick with her and not let her get free on the front side. Sawa's only play was to the front post, as she wasn't going to outbody anyone for a header.

- The performance during the penalty kicks. The US finally stopped believing after Japan's second goal. The only one of the four penalty takers who had any sort of confidence was Wambach. Boxx shrunk from the moment and telegraphed her intentions. Lloyd shot the same way she shot all game: 20 yards over the net. And Heath simply wasn't ready to be the USA's last real hope to stay alive. Japan's keeper made 2 great plays, but if the same US team that beat Brazil had taken those penalties, she wouldn't have saved either one of those balls.

- The advantage in ability AND the perfection of their game plan: They did everything they wanted to do in that game (save competent finishing). Japan couldn't play their possession game, the US dominated play and the chances.

The United States women did a tremendous job in the tournament, they simply didn't put a full regulation or a full overtime together against Japan, and Japan seized the opportunity the USA gave them. It was a tremendous game, and a very exciting tournament, and a wonderful win for Japan. It also will haunt everyone on the US roster for the rest of their lives.

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Tim Donaghy works the FIFA Women's World Cup

Even by my own (nonexistant) standards, updates have been pretty sparse for quite awhile. Between my usual endeavours and our 5 month old superstar, time to blog has been pretty nonexistant.

But then something comes along like this and I just can't not comment on it. Watch the video below and see if you can spot the absurdity:



Yeah...this is soccer, you can't catch the ball when you're not the goalkeeper. Luckily, soccer is a refereed sport, so these types of shennanigans aren't allowed. Unfortunately, the officiating crew for this game was incompetent, so nothing was called. You can see the keeper kick the ball away with the Australian players yelling incredulously at the referee.

Luckily, Australia won the game 3-2, so no lasting damage was done, except (hopefully) to the officiating careers of everyone on this crew.

Monday, April 4, 2011

NCAA Final, 1st Half

Three quick thoughts:

- Both teams are playing good-to-great defense, but that was the worst half of basketball I've seen in a long time. Even Wisconsin is embarassed for both of these teams after that half of ineptitude. UConn cannot hit a shot, and might be down 8-10 if they hadn't gotten a lot of bounces go their way. Butler has been cowed away from driving inside, as UConn's length is killing their inside game.

- If I'm UConn, I really just need to ride this game out and do everything I can to get Kemba Walker going. Usually it takes more than one player to carry you to a win in the tournament, but tonight, 1 good hot stretch from Kemba probably clinches it.

- If I'm Butler, I need to get a few easy baskets. Even if they just convert 2-4 inbounds plays into points, that might be enough. But they cannot just rely on hitting 3 pointers from further and further behind the line each time.

The pace of the game heavily favors Butler, but Kemba is the best player on the floor and most likely to hit a big shot in a close game at the end.