Suck for Luck Picture, Wild Card Round

Current NFL Draft Order

Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct	SOS	Conf	Div
1	Indianapolis	2	14	0	.125	.539	2-10	2-4
2	St. Louis	2	14	0	.125	.590	1-11	0-6
3	Minnesota	3	13	0	.188	.559	3-9	0-6
4	Cleveland	4	12	0	.250	.531	3-9	0-6
5	Tampa Bay	4	12	0	.250	.551	3-9	2-4
6	Washington	5	11	0	.313	.477	5-7	2-4
7	Jacksonville	5	11	0	.313	.500	4-8	3-3
8	Carolina*	6	10	0	.375	.504	3-9	2-4
9	Miami*	6	10	0	.375	.504	5-7	3-3
10	Buffalo	6	10	0	.375	.520	4-8	1-5
11	Kansas City*	7	9	0	.438	.512	4-8	3-3
12	Seattle*	7	9	0	.438	.512	6-6	3-3
13	Arizona	8	8	0	.500	.469	7-5	4-2
14	Dallas	8	8	0	.500	.473	6-6	2-4
15	Philadelphia	8	8	0	.500	.488	6-6	5-1
16	New York Jets	8	8	0	.500	.500	6-6	3-3
17	Oakland	8	8	0	.500	.504	6-6	3-3
18	San Diego	8	8	0	.500	.516	7-5	3-3
19	Chicago	8	8	0	.500	.527	7-5	3-3
20	Tennessee	9	7	0	.563	.461	7-5	3-3
21	Cincinnati	9	7	0	.563	.492	6-6	2-4
22	Atlanta	10	6	0	.625	.480	7-5	3-3
23	Detroit	10	6	0	.625	.535	6-6	3-3
24	Pittsburgh	12	4	0	.750	.492	9-3	4-2

The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).
After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.
*-indicates 2 teams who require a coin flip to determine the order of their 1st round picks

Week one week of the playoffs behind us, the order of the first 24 selections of the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft are now set in stone (though with trades the teams listed above may not all make their own picks in these slots, see below) minus the ties above that need coin flips, as indicated above.

The 25th-28th picks will go to the teams that lose in the divisional round (ordered by record, strength-of-schedule, and conference/division record just like the first 20 picks). The 29th and 30th picks will go to the teams that lose their respective conference championship games. The 31st pick will go to the Super Bowl loser, and the 32nd pick will go to the Super Bowl winner.

Trades:
Oakland's first round pick (#17) belongs to Cincinnati as part of the 2011 Carson Palmer trade.
Atlanta's first round pick (#22) belongs to Cleveland as part of a 2011 draft-day trade.
New Orleans' first round pick (#TBD) belongs to New England as part of a 2011 draft-day trade.

NFL Picks, Wild Card Round

I was hoping to put together a nice post for the first round of playoff picks, but I was foiled by a couple of things. One is that Friday was my birthday, and my 30th birthday, so I was busy enjoying that day with my wife and almost one year-old son. The second is that I was called for jury duty on Tuesday. Normally jury duty is two days or 1 trial. Well, on Wednesday I was put on a trial, and that trial is still going on. That means there's not much I can say, but I will say this, nothing in our court system moves at anything resembling a quick pace. I'm not saying it could be much different, I'm just saying it's easily the first thing you notice as a part of it.

Onto the picks:

Cincinnati (+4) over HOUSTON
The Bengals were 0-4 against the Steelers and Ravens, so while their run to the playoffs is a good story, the Bengals are not a true contender, not yet. And if this were the Houston team from the first half of the season, they would wipe the floor with these Bengals. But this isn't that Houston team. That Houston team was not quarterbacked by TJ Yates. Given the Texans' strong running game, I could overlook the TJ Yates issue, but Cincinnati made the playoffs on the backs of their top-10 defense. I say the Bengals take away Houston's running game, and Yates doesn't have enough heroics in him to recreate their week 14 thriller win.

NEW ORLEANS (-10.5) over Detroit
Detroit can put up points with the Saints, but in that dome, the pressure to be perfect offensively (meaning, get points out of every drive) is simply too much. Yes Detroit played them closer in week 13 than the score would indicate, but add in the sour taste in the Saints' mouths from last year's playoff loss in Seattle and I think the Saints make no doubt about this game.

Atlanta (+3) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Eli Manning's dirty little (not so) secret is that he performs better on the road than at home in December/January. Now, Dallas was too beat up and mentally weak to take advantage of that in week 17's play-in game. Atlanta is neither of those things. This game will come down to Atlanta's ability to neutralize the Giants' pass rush and Victor Cruz. It says here they do enough to hold each at bay to walk out of New Jersey with the win.

Pittsburgh (-8.5) over DENVER
Tebow against that defense, given what we've seen from him these last few weeks is simply not fair, and Roethlisberger's playing, so the Steeler offense will put up enough points to cover.

Suck for Luck Picture, Week 17

Current NFL Draft Order

Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct	SOS	Conf	Div
1	Indianapolis	2	14	0	.125	.539	2-10	2-4
2	St. Louis	2	14	0	.125	.590	1-11	0-6
3	Minnesota	3	13	0	.188	.559	3-9	0-6
4	Cleveland	4	12	0	.250	.531	3-9	0-6
5	Tampa Bay	4	12	0	.250	.551	3-9	2-4
6	Washington	5	11	0	.313	.477	5-7	2-4
7	Jacksonville	5	11	0	.313	.500	4-8	3-3
8	Carolina*	6	10	0	.375	.504	3-9	2-4
9	Miami*	6	10	0	.375	.504	5-7	3-3
10	Buffalo	6	10	0	.375	.520	4-8	1-5
11	Kansas City*	7	9	0	.438	.512	4-8	3-3
12	Seattle*	7	9	0	.438	.512	6-6	3-3
13	Arizona	8	8	0	.500	.469	7-5	4-2
14	Dallas	8	8	0	.500	.473	6-6	2-4
15	Philadelphia	8	8	0	.500	.488	6-6	5-1
16	New York Jets	8	8	0	.500	.500	6-6	3-3
17	Oakland	8	8	0	.500	.504	6-6	3-3
18	San Diego	8	8	0	.500	.516	7-5	3-3
19	Chicago	8	8	0	.500	.527	7-5	3-3
20	Tennessee	9	7	0	.563	.461	7-5	3-3

The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).
After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.
*-indicates 2 teams who require a coin flip to determine the order of their 1st round picks

The order of the first 20 selections of the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft are now set in stone (though with trades the teams listed above may not all make their own picks in these slots) minus the ties above that need coin flips, as indicated above. The order for the final 12 selections of the first round will be known after the playoffs have been completed.

The 21st-24th picks will go to the losers of the 4 opening round games of these playoffs (ordered by record, strength-of-schedule, and conference/division record just like the first 20 picks. The 25th-28th picks will go to the teams that lose in the divisional round. The 29th and 30th picks will go to the teams that lose their respective conference championship games. The 31st pick will go to the Super Bowl loser, and the 32nd pick will go to the Super Bowl winner.

Trades:
Oakland's first round pick (#17) belongs to Cincinnati as part of the 2011 Carson Palmer trade.
Atlanta's first round pick (#TBD) belongs to Cleveland as part of a 2011 draft-day trade.
New Orleans' first round pick (#TBD) belongs to New England as part of a 2011 draft-day trade.

NFC Playoff Picture, Final

NFC Playoff Picture

Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Div	Conf
1	c-Green Bay	15	1	0	.938	6-0	12-0
2	z-San Francisco	13	3	0	.813	5-1	10-2
3	y-New Orleans	13	3	0	.813	5-1	9-3
4	y-New York Giants	9	7	0	.563	3-3	5-7
5	x-Atlanta	10	6	0	.625	3-3	7-5
6	x-Detroit	10	6	0	.625	3-3	6-6

c –home field advantage, z - first round bye, y – division champion, x – playoff berth

San Francisco beats out New Orleans for the first round bye thanks to a better conference record than the Saints.

Atlanta edges out Detroit for the first wild card spot (and thus an opportunity to avoid the Saints in the first round) by virtue of their 23-16 win over the Lions in week 7.

So the games next weekend will be
(6) Detroit Lions at (3) New Orleans Saints
(5) Atlanta Falcons at (4) New York Giants

The weekend playoff schedule was announced, and I had the NFC games switched in my prediction earlier. The schedule is
Saturday at 4:30 (NBC) - Bengals at Texans
Saturday at 8:00 (NBC) - Lions at Saints
Sunday at 1:00 (FOX) - Falcons at Giants
Sunday at 4:30 (CBS) - Steelers at Broncos

AFC Playoff Picture, Final

AFC Playoff Picture

Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Div	Conf
1	c-New England	13	3	0	.813	5-1	10-2
2	z-Baltimore	12	4	0	.750	6-0	9-3
3	y-Houston	10	6	0	.625	4-2	8-4
4	y-Denver	8	8	0	.500	3-3	6-6
5	x-Pittsburgh	12	4	0	.750	4-2	9-3
6	x-Cincinnati	9	7	0	.563	2-4	6-6
OUT	Tennessee	9	7	0	.563	3-3	7-5

c - home field advantage, z – first round bye, y – division champion, x – playoff berth

Baltimore edges out Pittsburgh for the AFC North division and first round bye thanks to their 2-0 record against the Steelers head-to-head.

Cincinnati edges out Tennessee for the final playoff spot thanks to their 24-17 win over the Titans back in week 9.

So the games next weekend will be
(6) Cincinnati Bengals at (3) Houston Texans
(5) Pittsburgh Steelers at (4) Denver Broncos

This should be announced at halftime tonight, but I would expect the weekend playoff schedule to be as follows:
Saturday at 4:30 (NBC) - Bengals at Texans
Saturday at 8:00 (NBC) - Falcons at Giants/Cowboys
Sunday at 1:00 (FOX) - Lions at Saints
Sunday at 4:30 (CBS) - Steelers at Broncos