NFL Picks, Week 8 - Thursday Night Edition

THIS WEEK'S NFL TV MAPS: 506SPORTS

The majority of the country (in terms of map coverage, not necessarily number of households) will see 

New England at Buffalo (CBS, 1 PM)

Seattle at New Orleans  (FOX, 1:00 PM) 

Green Bay at Atlanta (FOX, 4:25PM)

The entire country will see 

Jacksonville at Tennessee (NFLN, 8:30 *Thursday*)

Washington "at" Cincinnati (FOX, 9:30 AM) 

Philadelphia at Dallas (NBC, 8:30)

Minnesota at Chicago (ESPN, 8:30 *Monday*)

TENNESSEE (-3) over Jacksonville

CBS and NBC punted on this game. Vegas has punted on this game (just have the home team give the 3 points and be done with it). I will likely punt on this game. There will probably be lots of punts in this game. You should punt on this game. 

But I'll still defend my pick. If you look back at my power rankings, you probably won't be that surprised to find Jacksonville sitting all the way at the bottom. You might be surprised to find Tennessee all the way up at 12th, between the 2 Pennsylvania teams. How is that possible? Well the Titans run the ball well (4.9 ypc) and defend the run well (3.9ypc). They do a slightly better job of creating explosive plays than allowing them (35 vs 31), and their 3rd down differential is +8.4%, good for 3rd in the league. 

Jacksonville defends well (better than average at defending the run, pass, and limiting explosives. But while the Titans have at least some sort of balance to their team, the Jaguars' putrid offense pulls the whole team down with it, including the better-than-average defense. 

Let's go to the (just now introduced) Thursday Night pick table:

Jacksonville Jaguars		Criteria	Tennessee Titans
+3		Vegas Line	X	-3
-25.51		Team Strength	X	6.40
Not in Jacksonville		Home Field	X	In Tennessee
	-	Coaching Matchup	-
THE PICK:				TENNESSEE (-3)

How college football got it wrong...again

On Sunday, the BCS announced which two teams would play for the national title. They chose LSU (only undefeated team, won the SEC) and Alabama (one loss, it was to LSU, didn't win their conference, didn't win their division) over Oklahoma State (one loss, it was to 6-6 Iowa State, won their conference).

This was another bad decision in a loooooong line of bad decisions.

The BCS is extremely unpopular with college football fans all over the country. Fans want to see a playoff. Proponents of the BCS argue that a playoff would devalue the regular season, and the BCS should stay because that way, "Every game counts."

Well, the decision to put Alabama in the title game flies in the face of the mantra, "every game counts". Instead, it should say, "every loss counts". Because if you look at every game (all 12 of them), Oklahoma State should be going. It's only if you look at one single game for each team (the loss) that Alabama deserves the berth.

Here are the Top-25 teams Alabama played this season: #1 (LSU-loss), #6 (Arkansas-win), #22 (Penn State-win), #25 (Auburn-win)
Here are the Top-25 teams Oklahoma State played this season: #8 (Kansas State-win), #12 (Baylor-win), #14 (Oklahoma-win) #24 (Texas-win)

The perception is, "Alabama played in the SEC, so they must have had the toughest road,so they must be the most deserving 1-loss team." Actually, the Big-12 was tougher. Alabama might have had an argument if they had played #9 South Carolina and #16 Georgia, but they didn't play either one.

So who bares the blame for this decision? The pollsters and the BCS itself.
The pollsters had their chance to issue an end-of-regular season correction, as they did in 2006. That was the year Ohio State and Michigan played int he second-to-last week of the season when they were ranked #1 and #2. Ohio State won a thriller, and Michigan stayed at #2 after the loss. However, the following week, Florida won the SEC Championship over then BCS #9 Arkansas, and the pollsters decided to jump Florida over Michigan, avoiding a rematch in the BCS Championship game. In that case, the voters had another deserving option, and (rightly) chose the top conference champion to take on the undisputed #1 team, rather than let a team who didn't win its conference AND had already lost to the other title game participant take the other spot. This year, the pollsters had the same chance to make the same correction, and Oklahoma State also made a last-week statement by thrashing then-#10 Oklahoma 44-10 while Alabama was idle. This time the pollsters declined to make the move.

And the BCS? They should have fixed things after 2001. Back then, Nebraska was the consensus #2 until their last game of the regular season, when they lost to Colorado 62-36. And despite having 2 worthy conference winners (Colorado and Oregon) available to play #1 Miami, Nebraska got the other title game berth. At that point, the BCS should have enacted a rule requiring teams to win their conferences to play for the title game. But they didn't, and the system failed in 2005 (Oklahoma over USC) and again this year.

Well done, BCS, congratulations on another illegitimate title game matchup.

NFL, Week 11

It was a busy weekend, so I was able to watch even less of the NFL than has become the norm in this new baby-filled frontier. So here are some quick hits:

- While Thursday's game will certainly add to the legend of Tebow, my biggest takeaway was how terribly Mark Sanchez played, and how little he needed to do for the Jets to win that game, and he still couldn't do it. Sanchez has made a habit of defying expectations (be those high or low ones), so we'll see how he bounces back from this low point.

- Oklahoma State sent the college football world into chaos thanks to their inexplicable loss to Iowa State (they of the 6-4 overall record). This loss put us one step closer to a thoroughly unappealing rematch option of LSU-Alabama. Luckily, both Oregon and Oklahoma had a chance to a) keep us from having to watch those two atrocious offenses go up against NFL-quality defenses again, and b) keep us from having a team who not only didn't even win their conference, they wouldn't even get the chance to play for their conference title, play in the national title game.

Unluckily, both failed. At this point, I don't see a way for us to avoid an SEC-West rematch for the national title.

- Granted they don't have to be great, but Green Bay's defense giving up 26 points to maddeningly inconsistent Tampa Bay (including LeGarrett Blount's Beast Mode impersonation) is a huge concern going forward.

- So Detroit's offense is capable of coming back from almost any deficit, and Green Bay's defense has been less than impressive all season. How big of a lead do the Packers need to get for me to feel safe turning off the TV at halftime. 50 points?

- Buyer's remorse much, Buffalo? Ryan Fitzpatrick seems like a good guy from afar, so maybe this will work out, but the immediate returns have been terrible. 0 touchdowns against Miami?

- Is it just me, or does Dan Patrick narrate a highlight of Redskins kicker Graham Gano missing a high leverage field goal every other week on Sunday Night Football's pregame show? Maybe an upgrade is in order?

- In the last 13 games between the two teams, Seattle has beaten St. Louis 12 times. The lone exception? Last year in St. Louis, also known as the only one of these 13 games that I attended. Screw you St. Louis, I'm glad you're a total train-wreck.

- I'd make a comment about the Chicago-San Diego game, but my friend Steveo summarized that game perfectly: "Is Phillip Rivers trying to get Norv Turner fired?" I'll let you guess which Rivers throw prompted this question.

- Of course, if that were the case, could you blame Rivers?

- Andy Reid finally allowed the Eagles to run almost as much as they threw the ball on Sunday, and somehow Philly beat the Giants behind Vince Young. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the two are related.

Pitiful State University

It's not enough.

The AD has been forced out. The VP has been forced out. The president is being given the ultimatum (resign or be terminated) and will be gone shortly. All three failed as human beings, and as part of the education system when they failed to inform the authorities back in 2002 about Sandusky. All three deserve to be terminated for their failures.

Joe Paterno has agreed to retire effective at the end of the season.

That's. Not. Good. Enough.

Paterno hasn't held onto his head coaching duties for 46 years by not asserting control over the entire program. If you ask someone who knows PSU athletics, they'll tell you nothing happens there without Paterno's knowledge and blessing. That makes him all the more culpable in his failure to report Sandusky when his graduate assistant told him what he saw Sandusky doing in PSU's facilities. Paterno chose his kingdom over an innocent child.

And by doing so, he chose his kingdom over many more innocent children - all of the ones Sandusky has abused since 2002. Their ruined childhoods, their innocence, their abilities to lead normal lives. All of these PSU power brokers have that on their hands.

There are many bad things Paterno could have covered up where you could see both sides of the coin. Where he would still be wrong, but one could understand his thought process. In those cases, letting him finish out the season and then stumble off into the sunset would be fine. But this is about children. Protecting children. From monsters. Paterno has kids. He has grandkids. And he has spent his whole life around young adults trying to help mold them into men. That makes his silence and circling of the wagons all the more unforgivable. Whether they can touch him legally or not is irrelevant. Paterno failed morally. He failed as a human being.

By not terminating Paterno immeidately, the school is continuing to circle the wagons. To think about their turf, their empire, over the victims of this horrible situation. They're thinking of BCS bowl berths, and the program, over innocents who fell victim to a true monster. By letting Paterno ride off into the sunset, career NCAA victory record in hand, they're giving him his golden parachute. He doesn't deserve that. Every day PSU lets him continue dictating the terms is another day of failing their students, their alumni, their neighbors.

Take a stand, Penn State. Clean house. Focus on healing those who were wronged. Worry not about yourselves, but be an example of doing what is right, even at cost to yourself.

Give Joe Paterno the same choice you gave your president. Resign, Joe, or be fired.

Strike a blow for fairness in college football

If you care at all about fairness, or college football, or fairness in college football, if you despise good-ol-boy networks and societies designed to keep the same group of people in charge year after year after year, do something about it.

Turn your TV to FOX. Right now. Seriously, drop what you are doing and put on FOX right now. Leave the TV on FOX for the next 3.5 hours. If you happen to enjoy good college football, then watch the Boise State-TCU game and enjoy the bonus.

TCU and Boise State are both outside of the 6 BCS conferences, which means they have to jump through a bunch of extra hoops just to play in these featured bowl games, and it's just about impossible for them to get serious consideration for berths in the national title game. A big reason for this is the major bowls are worried these teams won't travel well and that casual fans won't tune in to watch games featuring these teams, preferring games with big name schools instead.

Show them they are wrong. Do it for fairness, if you don't want to do it to see some good college football. These are the #3 and #6 teams in the country this season. One of these teams has the #1 defense in the country. The other just put forth the most exciting bowl game of the decade the last time they were in the Fiesta Bowl 3 years ago.



Watch the game, or at least have it on in the background.

It's all fun and games until someone gets sucker punched

Well the opening weekend of college football certainly wasn't boring...

It started with a whimper. South Carolina 7 North Carolina State 3. Looking at that final score, you probably have an idea of how ugly the game was to watch. Multiply that by 10, and you have a clear picture of what happened.

The Boise State-Oregon game did not live up to expectations, mostly because Oregon never showed up. The Ducks didn't get a first down until halfway through the 3rd quarter. Starting tailback LeGarrette Blount certainly showed up, though not until after the game, when he sucker punched a Boise State player who was taunting him. Blount turned around and coldcocked the BSU player (who wasn't wearing a helmet), then went crazy, pushing his own coach and trying to pull a Ron Artest and jump into the stands to confront some fans. It took multiple coaches and cops to finally get him off of the field. The decision Oregon made to suspend him for the rest of the season was the right one, as the punch was bad enough, but the rest of his behavior left them no choice.

The biggest winner of the weekend? Unquestionably BYU. They knocked off a BCS bowl participant from last year and the #3 team in the nation in Oklahoma. For those of you who dismiss this because Sam Bradford got hurt, BYU faced him for a whole half and gave up 7 points. Oklahoma scored 60 points or more 5 weeks in a row last season, and BYU held them to 7 points in a half with Bradford under center. That they pulled off the win is an even bigger statement. If BYU can run the table, they will have a legit argument for being put not just in a BCS bowl, but in the BCS title game (their schedule is strong, their conference is at least as good as the Big East, and they have a marquee win).

The biggest losers? Sam Bradford and Boise State. Bradford, because he came back when he could have been a top 5 pick, and he gets hurt right away. Oklahoma still has a shot at the BCS title game, but their road got a lot harder. But Boise State? Didn't they win their game over Oregon? Yes, and they only became losers when BYU knocked off Oklahoma. It's unlikely the BCS would invite more than 1 non-BCS conference team into the BCS bowls, and if both BYU and Boise State finish the season undefeated, BYU will be 10x more deserving. Their schedule is much tougher, their conference is much less of a joke, and their marquee win dwarfs BSU's. The saving grace for Boise is that BYU has the much harder road to go undefeated.

Ohio State almost ended up in that losers column, as Navy had a chance to tie the game at 29 with less than 3 minutes to go. The 2-point conversion play Navy dialed up...well, it could have gone better. Navy's QB dropped back to pass, then threw the ball to a receiver who was falling down, and had not 1, not 2, but 3 OSU players bewteen him and the QB. Naturally, the first OSU player picked off the pass, and ran it back all the way to give OSU a 4 point lead that they held on to for the W. They'd better get their stuff together in a hurry though, as USC comes to Columbus in 5 days.

The weekend also featured the most bizzare ending to a game I have ever seen. Northern Iowa trailed Iowa by 1 with 7 seconds left. They attempted a 41 yard field goal...and it was blocked. However, Northen Iowa recovered the ball with 1 second left. Normally, this would be moot, but it wasn't 4th down and the ball never crossed the line of scrimmage, which meant Northen Iowa maintained possession. With 1 second left, they lined up for another kick which was...blocked.

In 2 games involving 4 ranked teams, we also learned that Georgia's offense and Virginia Tech's defense both need work. Georgia did zilch on offense against Oklahoma State's suspect defense after the first drive of the game, which is very concerning for when they start playing SEC defenses. And Virginia Tech may be able to deal with the mediocre ACC offenses, but if Alabama can go up and down the field on you, you'd better reconsider your national title aspirations.