Friday, February 3, 2017

NFL Draft Picture, Conference Championships


2016 NFL Draft Order
Rank
Team
W
L
T
Pct
Conference
Division
SOV
SOS
1
Cleveland Browns
1
15
0
0.063
0.083
0.000
0.313
0.549
2
San Francisco 49ers
2
14
0
0.125
0.167
0.333
0.250
0.500
3
Chicago Bears
2
14
0
0.125
0.167
0.333
0.531
0.521
4
Jacksonville Jaguars
3
13
0
0.188
0.167
0.333
0.396
0.523
5
Los Angeles Rams
4
12
0
0.250
0.250
0.333
0.500
0.504
6
New York Jets
5
11
0
0.313
0.333
0.333
0.313
0.518
7
San Diego Chargers
5
11
0
0.313
0.333
0.167
0.513
0.543
8
Carolina Panthers
6
10
0
0.375
0.417
0.167
0.354
0.518
9
Cincinnati Bengals
6
9
1
0.406
0.417
0.500
0.349
0.521
10
Buffalo Bills
7
9
0
0.438
0.333
0.167
0.339
0.482
11
New Orleans Saints
7
9
0
0.438
0.500
0.333
0.393
0.523
12
Philadelphia Eagles
7
9
0
0.438
0.417
0.333
0.509
0.555
13
Arizona Cardinals
7
8
1
0.469
0.542
0.750
0.385
0.463
14*
Minnesota Vikings
8
8
0
0.500
0.417
0.333
0.449
0.484
15*
Indianapolis Colts
8
8
0
0.500
0.417
0.500
0.398
0.488
16
Baltimore Ravens
8
8
0
0.500
0.583
0.667
0.363
0.498
17
Washington Redskins
8
7
1
0.531
0.500
0.500
0.421
0.512
18
Tennessee Titans
9
7
0
0.563
0.500
0.333
0.451
0.461
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9
7
0
0.563
0.583
0.667
0.427
0.488
20
Denver Broncos
9
7
0
0.563
0.500
0.333
0.455
0.549
21
Detroit Lions
9
7
0
0.563
0.583
0.500
0.385
0.467
22
Miami Dolphins
10
6
0
0.625
0.583
0.667
0.341
0.455
23
New York Giants
11
5
0
0.688
0.667
0.667
0.449
0.482
24
Oakland Raiders
12
4
0
0.750
0.750
0.500
0.443
0.504
25
Houston Texans
9
7
0
0.563
0.583
0.833
0.420
0.498
26
Seattle Seahawks
10
5
1
0.656
0.542
0.583
0.427
0.441
27
Kansas City Chiefs
12
4
0
0.750
0.750
1.000
0.479
0.508
28
Dallas Cowboys
13
3
0
0.813
0.750
0.500
0.435
0.467
29
Green Bay Packers
10
6
0
0.625
0.667
0.833
0.441
0.500
30
Pittsburgh Steelers
11
5
0
0.688
0.750
0.833
0.423
0.494
31
Atlanta Falcons
11
5
0
0.688
0.750
0.833
0.452
0.480
32
New England Patriots
14
2
0
0.875
0.917
0.833
0.424
0.439


The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).
After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.

Notes: 
  • The draft order has been updated to reflect the results of the conference championships. Slots 1-30 are currently set, except for slots 14 and 15. Minnesota and Indianapolis finished tied in strength of schedule and a coin will be flipped to determine who picks 14th and who picks 15th. I believe my SOS numbers aren't accounting for ties properly, explaining the discrepancy. . 
  • Draft slot 31 will go to the loser of the Super Bowl and slot 32 will go to the Super Bowl Champion. 
  • The Los Angeles slot is owned by Tennesse, based on last year's trade up for Jared Goff. 
  • The Philadelphia Eagles slot is owned by Cleveland, based on last year's trade up for Carson Wentz.
  • The Minnesota slot is owned by Philadelphia, based on the Sam Bradford trade. 

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