NFL Picks, Week 6

Home teams in CAPS

I'm taking Denver(-3) tonight. SD is better than their record (their underlying numbers show it), but too injured to attack DEN like ATL did

— Mike Kofron (@TestaverdeTD) October 13, 2016

Heh, oops.

NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over Cincinnati
The Bengals are broken, especially offensively.
Baltimore (+3.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
I'm trusting that Baltimore's new OC won't neglect the running game, and will stop the madness of Joe Flacco throwing 40+ times for less than 250 yards. That's not Flacco's game.
Carolina (-3) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Saints don't have a defense, and Cam Newton is back.
Pittsburgh (-7) over MIAMI
Miami is simply a dumpster fire.
CHICAGO (-1.5) over Jacksonville
Two bad teams, I'll take the home team.
BUFFALO (-8.5) over San Francisco
Yeesh, that's a lot of points for Buffalo to be giving, but San Francisco is devoid of talent. And while Colin Kaepernick is walking through that door, Kaepernick of 2012/2013 is not.
Los Angeles (+3) over DETROIT
I'm trusting the Rams to not be the same 7-9 team from every other Jeff Fisher year, which is probably a mistake.
TENNESSEE (-7.5) over Cleveland
It would be funny if the Cavaliers won the NBA title, the Indians won the World Series, and the Browns went 0-16, right? Because the way bodies are falling, the Browns may be starting a full roster of players off the street by the end of the season, so it's in play.
WASHINGTON (+3) over Philadelphia
Hey, if Detroit can beat the Eagles, why not?
OAKLAND (+1.5) over Kansas City
I said I was buying Oakland stock before the season, and if anything they're getting better (by not being a total trainwreck defensively).
SEATTLE (-6.5) over Atlanta
The only thing that gices me pause is the bad weather Seattle is having this weekend. Russell Wilson tends to be the quarterback more affected by bad weather, whether it's heavy rains, wind, or bitter cold.
GREEN BAY (-4.5) over Dallas
The Cowboys are executing their script perfectly with the rookie quarterback: slow and steady. It will work aganst 75% of the league, but the Packers are in the other 25%.
Indianapolis (+3) over HOUSTON
Until I see something decent out of Osweiller, I can't pick Houston in a big game against a good quarterback.
ARIZONA (-7.5) over New York Jets
The Jets can't defend the pass, you're going to see a bunch of "Arizona's offense is back!" headlines after this game, be cautious.