NFL Picks, Week 3

Quick hitter picks this week, home teams in CAPS:

CINCINNATI (-3) over Denver
I don't trust Denver's offense away from home, and Cincinnati should be good enough to force the Broncos to have to put up some points to win this one.

TENNESSEE (-1) over Oakland
Oakland's defense is awful.

Arizona (-4) over BUFFALO
Arizona is good. Buffalo isn't.

Baltimore (-1) over JACKSONVILLE
The Gus Bradley watch has officially begun.

MIAMI (-9.5) over Cleveland
This is absolutely more points than Ryan Tannehill should ever be giving, but it's Cleveland...starting their 3rd string quarterback...who's a rookie...and remember they're tanking.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5) over Washington
The Giants just might have bought themselves a defense this past offseason. Better quarterbacks than Kirk Cousins have been held down by this defense this season.

GREEN BAY (-7) over Detroit
I'm really not sure what to make of Green Bay, their offense is still a mess. But can Detroit take advantage?

San Francisco (+9.5) over SEATTLE
No, this isn't an overreaction to the Rams loss (I expected them to lose, the Rams are in their heads). And while I do expect the offense to get somewhat untracked this week, I just cannot pick Seattle giving that many points until I see their offense show up in 2016.

TAMPA BAY (-5) over Los Angeles
The Case Keenum show does not travel well.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Congratulations, Carson Wentz, you've beaten the Browns and the Bears. Let's see how you do versus an NFL team.

New York Jets (+3) over KANSAS CITY
Toss-up game, I say we see good Fitzpatrick again this week.

INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) over San Diego
This is what it's come to for the Colts, they're not giving the full 3 points at home against the Chargers. Think Jim Irsay has buyers remorse for re-upping both his head coach and general manager (who spent all of last year sniping at each other) yet? Yes, the Colts remain a flawed mess, but if they lose this one they might as well start a fire sale.

Chicago (+7) over DALLAS 
Brian Hoyer is capable of force feeding elite wide recievers and turning that into a semi-functioning offense. And while Chicago's secondary is still a mess, their front seven is somewhat improved. Can Dak Prescott run away with this game? I say no.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Atlanta
I don't really trust either of these defenses at all, and weird stuff happens to Atlanta when they're playing in New Orleans.

This week: 0-1 (D'oh!)
Last week: 7-9 (.438)
Season: 19-14 (.576)