But before I get to tonight's pick, here are my quick predictions for the year:
|
AFC
|
NFC
|
||||||
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
|
New England Patriots (1)
|
13
|
3
|
0
|
Philadelphia Eagles (4)
|
11
|
5
|
0
|
|
Miami Dolphins
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
Washington Redskins
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
|
New York Jets
|
7
|
9
|
0
|
New York Giants
|
5
|
11
|
0
|
|
Buffalo Bills
|
4
|
12
|
0
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
4
|
12
|
0
|
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
|
Baltimore Ravens (4)
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
Green Bay Packers (3)
|
12
|
4
|
0
|
|
Cincinnati Bengals (5)
|
9
|
7
|
0
|
Chicago Bears (5)
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
|
Pittsbugh Steelers
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
|
Cleveland Browns
|
5
|
11
|
0
|
Detroit Lions
|
5
|
11
|
0
|
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
|
Indianapolis Colts (2)
|
12
|
4
|
0
|
New Orleans Saints (2)
|
13
|
3
|
0
|
|
Houston Texans (6)
|
9
|
7
|
0
|
Atlanta Falcons
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
|
Tennessee Titans
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
7
|
9
|
0
|
|
Jacksonville Jaguars
|
5
|
11
|
0
|
Carolina Panthers
|
5
|
11
|
0
|
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
|
Denver Broncos (3)
|
11
|
5
|
0
|
Seattle Seahawks (1)
|
13
|
3
|
0
|
|
San Diego Chargers
|
7
|
9
|
0
|
San Francisco 49ers (6)
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
St. Louis Rams
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
|
Oakland Raiders
|
3
|
13
|
0
|
Arizona Cardinals
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
Leading to a somewhat familiar outcome:
WILD CARD ROUND
| |
AFC (3v6)
|
Broncos over Texans
|
AFC (4v5)
|
Ravens over Bengals
|
NFC (3v6)
|
49ers over Packers
|
NFC (4v5)
|
Eagles over Bears
|
DIVISIONAL ROUND
| |
AFC (1v4)
|
Patriots over Ravens
|
AFC (2V3)
|
Broncos over Colts
|
NFC (1V6)
|
Seahawks over 49ers
|
NFC (2V4)
|
Saints over Eagles
|
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND
| |
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
|
Patriots over Broncos
|
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
|
Seahawks over Saints
|
SUPER BOWL
| |
SB XLVII
|
Seahawks over Patriots
|
Yes, I'm picking the Seahawks to repeat. Going into this offseason, I was sure they wouldn't repeat because the margin between them and the 49ers last season was razor-thin, and a combination of reloading and general luck could easily swing the 2014 NFC West title to the 49ers. However, everything about the preseason indicated the 49ers may be looking at a bit of a regression, while the Seahawks look like any defensive regression will be countered with an offensive improvement (please stay healthy Percy Harvin).
As for the AFC, I believe there are (again) two legitimate contenders: the Broncos and Patriots. And if they stay healthy, I believe the improvements New England has made on defense will carry them over the Broncos in the regular season (to secure home field for the rematch), and in the AFC Championship Game.
And while I believe the Patriots will put up a much better fight than last year's Broncos, I trust Russell Wilson and his weapons to put up a few more points on the Pats D than I do Brady and his weapons against the Seahawks defense.
Now, onto tonight's pick, home team in CAPS.
SEATTLE (-5.5) over Green Bay
Similar to the narrative heading into the Super Bowl, everyone is talking about the Packers offense versus the Seahawks defense. I don't expect the Seattle D to shut down Rodgers like their Super Bowl performance (Green Bay has a better running game and should be more balanced than Denver was), but I do expect them to hold him below 21 points with the home crowd on their side.
So we look to the Seahawks offense versus the Packers D, can Seattle score 24+ points? I believe they can put up 30+. With Percy Harvin healthy, and Russell Wilson looking maestro-ish (new word alert) throughout the preseason (I know, I know, but he looked really REALLY good, it can't all be meaningless), this offense is ready to step out of the defense's shadow. And I just do not see the Packers putting up a whole lot of resistance. Dom Capers has proven exceptionally bad at a) containing dual-threat quarterbacks, b) executing disciplined rushes against said QBs, or c) adjusting mid-game to a wrinkle he hadn't expected. And Green Bay's defense isn't talented enough to stop a good offense if they're not working with a schematic advantage.
Seahawks win 34-19.
Regular Season History:
2013 season: 115-134-7 (.463)
2013 Midweek Picks: 7-9-1
2012: 114-133-9 (.463)
2011: 51-55-4 (.482)
Postseason History:
2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455)Miles' 2013 Postseason: 6-3-2 (.550)
2012: 114-133-9 (.463)
2011: 51-55-4 (.482)
2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455)Miles' 2013 Postseason: 6-3-2 (.550)
2012 Postseason: 6-4-1
2011 Postseason: 6-5
2011 Postseason: 6-5
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