NFL Picks, Week 9 - Thursday Night Edition

Road favorites were 4-2-1 against the spread last season in midweek games, with no losses after week 6. In addition, the road favorite won 5 of the 7 games.

This year, road favorites are 3-0 against the spread. In fact, home teams have only covered twice overall through 8 weeks.

This week's matchup features two teams going in opposite directions:

Cincinnati started the season 2-2, but no they are rolling, having won four straight behind both their stifling defense and an all-of-a-sudden dangerous offense.

Miami started the season 3-0, but then were blasted by the Saints on Monday Night Football, and haven't won a game since. Worse yet, Ryan Tannehill seems to be regressing.

The Dolphins have a stout defensive front, and that's about it. They have no running game, and one of their top receivers was lost last week with an injury.

Cincinnati has a better defensive front, a running game, one of the top receivers in the game (AJ Green), a reciever who caught 4 touchdowns last week (Marvin Jones), and a quarterback who seemed to be taking a serious step forward (Andy Dalton).

So yeah, give me the road favorite Bengals to cover in this one.

Cincinnati (-3) over MIAMI

2013 Midweek Picks: 5-3

NFL Power Poll, Week 8

Rank (Last)	Team	Record	Grade	Midseason Notes
1 (1)		7-1	A	I considered giving them an A+, because for a team that historically travels worse than anyone flying US Airways, to be 7-1 having played 5 road games already is quite an accomplishment. But I realized that the F-minus-minus-minus performance on Monday night in St. Louis had to be coutned too.
2 (2)		5-2	A	Again, I considered giving them an A+ as well, as everyone had them pegged for a regression, and instead they have knocked off San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver in the first 8 weeks. Which makes their losses to the Dolphins and especially the Chargers so hard to fathom.
3 (3)		8-0	A+	It's amazing what competent coaching (outside of clock management in the final two minutes of a half) can do for a team.
4 (4)		6-1	A	They're 10 seconds or so away from being perfect through 8 weeks, and Rob Ryan has last year's historically bad defense actually playing well.
5 (6)		6-2	A-	They look like they're rolling now, but that's come against STL, HOU, ARI, TEN, JAX. As good as they look right now, the stain of two stright blowouts against SEA and IND remain. Their first two games after the bye (CAR, @NO) will be a good test.
6 (5)		7-1	A-	The offense is humming along nicely, but the defense needs to start carrying at least a little bit of the weight for this team, otherwise we're looking at another early playoff exit for Peyton.
7 (7)		6-2	A	Cincinnati's defense is leading the way, but Andy Dalton may be taking the next step. If he is now an asset, instead of a liability when playoff time comes around, the Bengals are a legitimate contender.
8 (8)		5-2	B+	Aaron Rodgers continues to lead the offense, but I can't trust their defense, especially with Clay Matthews banged up.
9 (9)		6-2	B+	It hasn't been pretty (not even close), but the Patriots keep getting results. The win over New Orleans is a bright spot on their 2013 resume. The loss to the Jets? Not so much. It's tough to view them as a contender without the entire middle of their front seven (Wilfork and Mayo are gone for the year, and Tommy Kelly isn't back yet), and a gimpy Aquib Talib.
10 (11)		5-3	B+	I'm not sure this team will ever be deemed "disciplined" under Jim Schwartz, but at least they're not losing many games on account of it right now.
11 (12)		4-3	B	Carolina's defense has been outstanding this season. Their offense is still very much a work-in-progress, but they're winning the games they should win, which is a good first step.
12 (10)		4-4	C	This was the hardest team to grade. Dallas is a .500 team over the last decade, so is this their true talent level? Are they the team that went toe-to-toe with Denver and their otherworldly offense for 58 minutes? Or are they the team that got shutout for an entire half by the leaky Chargers defense? Are they the team that started 4-0 in the NFC, or the team that allowed Calvin Johnson to amass 329 yards receiving? Have they actually learned anything from the past couple of seasons, or are they still just good enough to break their fans' hearts? 8 games in, we still don't know.
13 (15)		4-3	B	Coach Mike McCoy has been a godsend for Philip Rivers, who looks much more like the guy who was prompting questions about whether the Giants were right to pick Eli over him than the guy who made the comparison laughable these last few years. The defense isn't very good, so the team is very up and down, but it's progress.
14 (14)		4-3	B-	The defense has noticeably slipped from previous seasons. The offense is better, but that's not going to continue with Jay Cutler out for at least a month.
15 (23)		4-4	C	Their offense was comically bad last year thanks to terrible quarterbacks and a terrible offensive line. This year the offense is better with an average quarterback, but still bad because of the offensive line.
16 (16)		3-4	C-	The offense is a train-wreck. Yes they're down to Torrey Smith and filler at receiver, but even their running backs aren't producing at all. And while the defense is improved, it's not enough to carry the team. This is what happens when you pay a good quarterback elite money.
17 (17)		3-4	C+	Even when things are going well, it's always hard for the Titans. There aren't many explosive plays, so they have to be great over a series of 8-12 plays to score on a given drive. There's enough there for it to work, but if any piece breaks (be it injury or execution), it all falls apart.
18 (13)		3-4	C+	Well they had a A start and then a D- 2nd quarter so I split the difference.
19 (20)		3-4	B-	Considering the state of their quarterback position, for Cleveland to be 3-4 is a minor miracle.
20 (18)		4-4	B-	The Jets had a good defense last year too, and they were barely competitive in the 2nd half of the season. With a little bit more health on defense and not Mark Sanchez taking snaps, there is at least hope that things will get better, rather than spiral down the buttfumbling drain.
21 (21)		2-5	D	The defense (at least until Cushing went down again against KC) was beasting. The offense simply couldn't pull anything close to its share of the weight, mostly thanks to Matt Schaub. Now he's out, and instead of playoffs and Super Bowl the year is all about evaluating Case Keenum.
22 (24)		2-5	D+	The Griffin injury overshadows everything here, but that's why you a) protect you sizable investment instead of acting recklessly with it and b) invest more than $3.00 in maintaining your field.
23 (19)		3-5	C	The defense actually looks improved (like we were promised last year), and the offense is starting to look dynamic (like we were promised last year. All-in-all, this looks like a team on the right path (like we’ve been promised every year since 2000).
24 (22)		2-5	D	A long and quick fall for a team that was less than 20 yards away from the Super Bowl last season. They were always going to have to make up for their porous defense, and their injuries have made that impossible.
25 (27)		3-5	C-	Based on last season, St. Louis should have been ready to take the next step and compete for a playoff spot, even in that ridiculously difficult division. And if the team that came out against the Seahawks on Monday night was the team we saw every week, they probably would be.
26 (28)		3-4	C+	Jacksonville's actual 2013 is how I envisioned the Raiders' 2013 going. Instead, the Raiders are surprisingly competitive behind the latest young quarterback to beat out Matt Flynn.
27 (25)		2-5	D+	The Steelers are like the Yankees, experts predict a fall because of age, and it never happens. Then one season, everything actually does fall apart, but we'd become so numb to the predicitions that it catches us by surprise. In Pittsburgh's case, their inability to get much out of their last 4-5 drafts has left the cupboard almost completely bare.
28 (29)		2-6	F	The defense and running game have completely fallen apart, and Eli is throwing bushels of picks because he's trying to do too much.
29 (26)		3-5	D+	It's amazing now that Matt Barkley was thought to be a competitor to Andrew Luck for the #1 overall pick in the 2012 draft.
30 (30)		1-6	D-	When you don't get the quarterback position right, it's hard to accomplish much in the NFL. Last year's Vikings team was the surprise.
31 (31)		0-7	F	This team is way too talented to be 0-7. Coaches aren't using their great players correctly (see Darrelle Revis in zone coverage), they are losing control of the locker room (see Michael Silver's exposee from last week), and they're mishandling the quarterback position.
32 (32)		0-8	F	We knew they'd be bad. We didn't realize they wouldn't even compete.

Biggest Risers:

Arizona (8 spots)

Biggest fallers:
Miami (5 spots) 
Buffalo (4 spots)

NFL Standings, Week 8

Here are the NFL Standings through week 8: 

AFC
AFC EAST
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
New England Patriots	6	2	0	0.750	3-2	3-1	0.409	0.467
New York Jets	4	4	0	0.500	2-4	2-1	0.367	0.467
Miami Dolphins	3	4	0	0.429	2-3	0-2	0.455	0.538
Buffalo Bills	3	5	0	0.375	2-4	1-2	0.476	0.583
AFC NORTH
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Cincinnati Bengals	6	2	0	0.750	4-1	1-1	0.543	0.525
Baltimore Ravens	3	4	0	0.429	3-3	1-1	0.364	0.481
Cleveland Browns	3	5	0	0.375	2-3	1-1	0.435	0.567
Pittsburgh Steelers	2	5	0	0.286	2-3	1-1	0.467	0.471
AFC SOUTH
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Indianapolis Colts	5	2	0	0.714	3-2	1-0	0.590	0.566
Tennessee Titans	3	4	0	0.429	3-2	0-1	0.455	0.623
Houston Texans	2	5	0	0.286	2-2	1-0	0.500	0.642
Jacksonville Jaguars	0	8	0	0.000	0-5	0-1	0.000	0.705
AFC WEST
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Kansas City Chiefs	8	0	0	1.000	5-0	1-0	0.328	0.328
Denver Broncos	7	1	0	0.875	3-1	1-0	0.321	0.367
San Diego Chargers	4	3	0	0.571	2-3	0-1	0.387	0.385
Oakland Raiders	3	4	0	0.429	3-3	1-2	0.273	0.538
x-clinched playoff spot, y-clinched division title, z-clinched first round bye, c-clinched conference title

NFC
NFC EAST
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Dallas Cowboys	4	4	0	0.500	4-1	3-0	0.323	0.548
Philadelphia Eagles	3	5	0	0.375	3-2	2-2	0.182	0.475
Washington Redskins	2	5	0	0.286	1-4	0-2	0.500	0.585
New York Giants	2	6	0	0.250	2-4	1-2	0.267	0.557
NFC NORTH
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Green Bay Packers	5	2	0	0.714	3-1	2-0	0.378	0.491
Detroit Lions	5	3	0	0.625	4-2	2-1	0.378	0.483
Chicago Bears	4	3	0	0.571	2-3	1-1	0.367	0.462
Minnesota Vikings	1	6	0	0.143	0-5	0-3	0.286	0.481
NFC SOUTH
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
New Orleans Saints	6	1	0	0.857	4-0	2-0	0.364	0.423
Carolina Panthers	4	3	0	0.571	4-2	1-0	0.200	0.370
Atlanta Falcons	2	5	0	0.286	2-2	1-1	0.200	0.491
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0	7	0	0.000	0-5	0-3	0.000	0.547
NFC WEST
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Seattle Seahawks	7	1	0	0.875	4-0	3-0	0.415	0.450
San Francisco 49ers	6	2	0	0.750	3-1	2-1	0.378	0.483
Arizona Cardinals	4	4	0	0.500	4-4	0-3	0.379	0.550
St. Louis Rams	3	5	0	0.375	1-5	1-2	0.261	0.475
x-clinched playoff spot, y-clinched division title, z-clinched first round bye, c-clinched conference title

Interesting Notes:

• The 6th playoff team in the AFC right now is San Diego, who are 4-3. So you're probably looking at needing to be 9-7 to have a shot at the playoffs. 
• The 6th playoff team in the NFC right now is Detroit, who are 5-3. Unless you can get to 10 wins in the NFC (outside of the NFC East), the playoffs are probably out of the question. 
• That means Atlanta is all but out of the race, as they'd need to go 8-1 in their last 9 to hit 10 wins, and they still have New Orleans, Carolina, and Seattle on their schedule

A Quick Look Ahead to Week 9:
New Orleans at New York Jets (Sunday 1:00 PM) - This looked much better last week, when the Jets were coming off a win over New England, than it does this week, as the Jets are coming off of a 40-point loss to Cincinnati. 

Chicago at Green Bay (Monday 8:30 PM) - The only game in week 9 where both teams have a record north of .500. But Chicago is starting Josh McCown at quarterback. Not a great week for marquee matchups.