2012 NFL Schedule - Prime-time Opportunities

Last Tuesday unveiled the full schedule for the 2012-13 NFL season. And with it, we get to see what the NFL thinks of its 32 teams, based on how many opportunities everyone in the country will have to see a particular team play. Before we discuss the teams, a couple of notes about the rules for prime-time opportunities:

The available prime-time slots are as follows:
Sunday Night Football - These games are played on Sunday Nights at 8:20 PM on NBC, and occur in weeks 1-16 of the season. This also includes the opening night of the season on Wednesday this year, because alleged football fan Barack Obama scheduled his speech at the Democratic National Convention for the Thursday the NFL normally opens its season on. It does NOT include the week 17 Sunday Night game, as that game is not settled until after week 16's games conclude.
Total: 17 games

Monday Night Football - These games are played on Monday Nights at 8:30 PM on ESPN. Well, during week 1 there are 2 Monday Night games, so those games are played at 7 PM and 10:30 PM for that week, but in weeks 2-16, the games are played at the regular time. There is no MNF game for week 17.
Total: 17 games

Thursday Night Football - These games are played on Thursday Nights at 8:30 PM on the NFL Network. I also included the Thanksgiving games here, which are played one each on FOX, CBS, and NBC (new this year, NBC has the Thanksgiving night game, not the NFL Network). These games occur in weeks 2-16, with three occuring on Thanksgiving Day, during week 12.
Total: 16 games

This means there are a total of 50 games that will reach a national TV audience and a total of 100 prime time slots. The NFL determined that teams could have no more than 5 of these prime time slots and each team had to have at least 1 prime-time opportunity.

We also know that Sunday Night Football is the marquee event of each NFL week, and the NFL tries to make that game as good as possible (hence the flexible scheduling for Sunday night games in the latter stages of the season), so these games have extra cachet than their Monday and Thursday Night counterparts.

So, who are the NFL darlings? I have separated the teams into tiers, based on their prime-time spots:

Tier 1: The Darlings (5 prime-time spots, 3 SNF appearances)

• Pittsburgh Steelers: playoff team, perennial powerhouse, star quarterback
• New York Giants: they did okay for themselves last season, with that Super Bowl win, and all
• Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 record, no playoff spot, but they're a team most people will watch, even if it's just hoping they screw up on an epic level
• Green Bay Packers: Regular season champions with their 15-1 record, if there were such a thing (but there isn't)

No arguments here. I mean, the Cowboys don't deserve the spot, sure, but reality dictates the Cowboys get too much national exposure. It's right up there with Death and Taxes. Admit it, you read that as Texas, didn't you?

Tier 2: The Draws (5 prime-time spots, 2 SNF appearances)

• Houston Texans: Coming off the first playoff season in team history
• Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning Peyton Manning, playoff team last year, Peyton Manning Peyton Manning
• San Diego Chargers: The oversold team of 2012.
• Philadelphia Eagles: The "Dream Team", part II, and sequels are always better than the originals.
• Detroit Lions: First playoff season in forever, plus a dynamic offense as long as Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson don't get hurt.
• San Francisco 49ers: Lost in OT in the NFC Championship game.

The Chargers and Eagles are the only teams in this tier who missed the playoffs last season. The Eagles still have most of the cast that had everyone predicting last year's Super Bowl was in the bag at the start of the season, and people remain fascinated by Michael Vick. The Chargers were the Eagles before the Eagles, but they haven't been the sexy pick that always falls short for a couple of seasons now. Yes Philip Rivers is a big name player but he's never won anything. Really, you're giving the country more chances to watch Norv Turner "lead" his charges to underachieville.

Tier 3: What do we do with you? (5 prime time spots, 1 SNF appearance)

• Chicago Bears: What I'm guessing the thought process was, "Well, if Jay Cutler stays healthy, this is a good team. If he goes down, they're a train wreck. I tell you what, we'll split the difference and give them 3 Monday Night games instead of multiple Sunday Night ones. That way, if the games stink, it's only Monday Night on ESPN."

Tier 4: The Tried-and-Trues (4 prime time spots, 2 SNF appearances)

• New England Patriots: As close to a sure-thing playoff team as there is in the league, would have won the Super Bowl last year except those damn Giants had to be there too.
• Baltimore Ravens: It's weird, they're basically a guaranteed playoff team in the Flacco era, but you still have no idea what kind of team is going to show up during any given week.
• New Orleans Saints: Terrific offense, big stories surrounding this team thanks to the Bounty scandals.

If anything, these teams are being undersold.

Tier 5: All teams are equal, some are just less equal than others (4 prime-time spots, 1 SNF appearance)

• New York Jets: Do you want to watch good football? Well, the Jets may not be able to help you, with their Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow options under center. But do you want to watch an entertaining show? This is your team.
• Atlanta Falcons: Clearly good. Clearly NOT great. Especially at 4th and 1 from their own side of the field.

Tier 6: We really, really don't trust you (3 prime-time spots, 1 SNF appearance)

• Cincinnati Bengals: This was a playoff team last year! But it's the Bengals! Good point!

Tier 7: Mildly Interesting (2 prime-time spots)

• Tennessee Titans: Peyton Manning almost came here! What?
• Oakland Raiders: No Al Davis and no draft picks (almost none, at least) make Carson Palmer and Co. dull boys.
• Kansas City Chiefs: This team was decimated by injuries last year, and they'd be a much more exciting team if Matt Cassel weren't under center.
• Washington Redskins: The second game is thanks to the soon-to-be-addition of Robert Griffin III.
• Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton had a pretty amazing season last year, this year the country will get to see him in action.
• Arizona Cardinals: 8-8 team despite a steaming pile of nothing at quarterback. Of course, they have the same two guys coming back, so...
• Seattle Seahawks: Haven't had a real quarterback under center since January of 2011, will be interesting to see what they can do with one.

You can make the case that a few of these teams could be very interesting this coming season. But you can also easily make the case that none of these teams will be any good.

Tier 8: Thanks to Roger Goodell, we didn't have a choice (1 prime-time spot)

• Miami Dolphins: It would be more interesting to watch the Dolphins' offseason, as player after player comes up with a novel way to say, "Thanks for the interest, but I'm going to sign with (insert team name that doesn't rhyme with Smolfin here) instead. No, no, it's not you...well, yeah, it's you. Sorry."
• Buffalo Bills:
• Cleveland Browns: No one wants to watch Colt McCoy try and throw the ball. Unless the Browns draft Trent Richardson, no fantasy owner is going to touch anyone on this team either.
• Jacksonville Jaguars: If you have Maurice Jones-Drew as your fantasy running back, you're interested in a game with the Jaguars. That's it. Even people who live in Jacksonville aren't interested in games featuring the Jaguars.
• Indianapolis Colts: Everyone will want to see Andrew Luck once, and then they'll be thrilled never to see this team again as they completely rebuild.
• Minnesota Vikings: With their most marketable star coming off of an ACL injury late last season, this will be a painful season to watch.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: If this team can simply go 16 games without quitting on itself, it will be a vast improvement over 2011.
• St. Louis Rams: Check back in 1-2 more years.

Yeesh. At least all of the games featuring these teams are Thursday Night contests on the NFL Network, which means you don't have to feel bad about not watching the Thursday Night game for at least 4-5 weeks.