The Peyton Manning Derby

What has been assumed for months now has become official: The Indianapolis Colts have cut Peyton Manning. It’s not a surprise, because a few events came together to create the perfect storm of a situation where the Colts not only accepted this course of action, but really could not have chosen any other way:

1. Manning has 4 neck surgeries since the end of the 2010 season, missing the entire 2011 season – This brought a Colts future without Manning into focus. If Manning doesn’t have to miss the 2011 season, the Colts likely win their division again, or at least make the playoffs. Bill Polian and his son keep their jobs, and the thought of drafting Manning’s successor remains the fantasy it had always been throughout Polian’s tenure.
2. Andrew Luck decides to come out, and Indianapolis completely collapses without Manning, securing the #1 pick in the draft – This is what convinced the Colts to move on from Manning this year. Andrew Luck is seen as a surefire NFL QB, fairly or not. A team that would pass on Luck is a team that risks seeing Luck go on to have a Peyton Manning-like career. This isn’t Sam Bradford or Matthew Stafford, simply the top prospect at the most important position in the NFL. This is a quarterback who teams have been salivating over since the 2010 season. When Indy’s collapse put them in position to grab Luck, they had to decide between maybe 3-4 more years of Manning, or potentiall another 14-15 years of great quarterback play in Andrew Luck.
3. Manning’s extension includes a $28 Million roster bonus to be paid by Thursday March 8 (tomorrow)if Manning is on the roster on that day – This is why Manning is being cut and not traded. If Manning is on the Colts’ roster tomorrow, he receives a $28 Million bonus on top of his $7.4 Million salary for 2012. His cap hit would have been $17 Million. Tough to swallow, but it could be done. However, if traded, all of Manning’s guaranteed money comes due for cap purposes, and his cap figure to not play for the Colts balloons. Since Indy couldn’t trade him until after the roster bonus due date, there was no way for Indy to get value for Manning without crippling their cap.

Now there are only two pieces of the story left: Will Manning play again, and if yes, where? We’re a couple of days into the Manning chase, and Peyton has said he wants to make a decision this week. Let’s assume that Manning will play again. To answer the question of where he may take his talents, let’s first eliminate the teams who are not in the market for a quarterback either because they are happy with their quarterback’s play, or are too tied to him to contemplate making a switch.

• Colts (soon to be Andrew Luck)
• Patriots (Tom Brady)
• Chargers (Philip Rivers)
• Raiders (Carson Palmer)
• Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger)
• Bengals (Andy Dalton)
• Texans (Matt Schaub)
• Titans (Jake Locker)
• Cowboys (Tony Romo)
• Giants (Eli Manning)
• Eagles (too invested in Vick)
• Rams (Sam Bradford)
• Bears (Jay Cutler)
• Lions (Matthew Stafford)
• Packers (Aaron Rodgers)
• Falcons (Matt Ryan)
• Panthers (Cam Newton)
• Saints (Drew Brees)
• Buccaneers (Josh Freeman)
• Redskins (Robert Griffin III thanks to their soon-to-be official trade with the Rams)

That leaves 12 teams:

• Jaguars - Not happening. As they showed in ruining Blaine Gabbert’s rookie season, this team needs a TON of help.
• Vikings - Not happening. This team is simply too far away for Manning to spend the last few years of his career futilely chasing after the rest of the NFC North. The Vikings need to rebuild, and they know it.
• Browns - Not happening. Cleveland is cursed. Manning’s not going to a cursed franchise that has to play the Steeler and Raven defenses four times a year.
• Bills - Not happening. Manning is apparently taking even the weather of his new home team into account, and that eliminates Buffalo/Toronto from consideration. Manning doesn’t want to spend half of his season throwing in the winds and snow of upstate New York (or worse, Canada).
• Jets - Manning apparently told them no, probably because he doesn’t want to share a city with his brother (especially now that Eli wins the rings tiebreaker to every argument), doesn’t want to subject himself to New York City, and probably doesn’t want anywhere near the Jets freak show of a locker room. Unfortunately for Jets fans, Manning’s “Thanks but no thanks” caused GM Mike Tannenbaum to go on a bender during which time he drunk-dailed the agent for his current quarterback Mark Sanchez, and agreed to a 3-year extension that makes Sanchez one of the 6 or 7 highest paid quarterbacks in the league. Lay off the peach schnapps next time, Mike.
• Ravens - I just don’t see it. The Ravens could certainly use a QB upgrade over just good enough to get you beat when it counts Joe Flacco, but Baltimore barely has the cap room to keep their own guys they want to hold onto, and I don’t see Baltimore willing to remake its identity for Peyton.
• Chiefs - They make sense, but I don't see Scott Pioli making a big splashy move for a 35-year-old quarterback.
• 49ers - If Manning wants the chance to compete for Super Bowls, this is where he should go. But San Francisco isn’t going to remake themselves for Peyton (Harbaugh is way too proud to let Peyton run his offense), and don’t forget, Harbaugh is the quarterback Indianapolis kicked to the curb so they could draft Peyton. Does that mean Harbaugh wouldn’t entertain the possibility? I doubt it, but I also don’t see him rolling out the red carpet either.
• Seahawks - Seattle has done a great job rebuilding everywhere except the quarterback position. Tarvaris Jackson isn’t ever going to be close to a top-flight quarterback, and he will hold Seattle back as they try to take the next step from mediocre to true contender. The upgrade to Peyton would be sizeable, and Seattle (according to reports) is doing everything they can to get a meeting with Manning, but it hasn’t happened or been scheduled yet. Manning may be looking at the weather as a factor here, or he may be looking at Seattle’s very young OLine and last year’s sack numbers and shaking his head. That isn’t entirely fair as Tarvaris Jackson greatly enhanced those sack numbers because he has zero pocket awareness, but Seattle’s line is still young and learning. I’m going to say Seattle’s out because if Manning hasn’t set up a meeting by now, I don’t think he’s interested (even if he should be).
• Broncos - This is John Elway’s get out of Tebownation free card, if he wants one. Elway has never seemed enamored of Tim Tebow, even as the team made the final 8 in the playoffs. However, Elway would face a fan revolt if he benched Tebow going into next season unless the replacement was a bonafide guarantee. Someone who could not only produce, but who the fans could look at and say, “Okay, I love me some Tim Tebow, but this guy is a first ballot hall of famer, I’ll get behind him.” Peyton Manning is that guy, and he’s the only one of those guys who will be any sort of available. Peyton’s first meeting was with Denver so they have to be taken seriously. But they are lacking so many pieces on offense that I don’t see it. They need a running back, multiple receivers, maybe even a line piece or two.
• Cardinals - Good team (finished 8-8 with Kevin Kolb and John Skelton under center). Great weather (indoors on natural grass). Terrific receiver (Fitzgerald makes okay QBs look good, and remember what Kurt Warner did with him). Yeah their division has San Francisco in it, but no team can claim to be a true powerhouse yet, and it’s been a joke for a long time, so the path to the playoffs isn’t necessarily too difficult. The one downside is it’s in the NFC, so he could end up competing with little brother for playoff or Super Bowl berths.
• Dolphins - I say this is where Peyton ends up. The Dolphins certainly have some negatives: they’re in a division with Tom Brady, they were only 6-10 last year, they will play some December road games in terrible weather. But they are well equipped to run his offense (Reggie Bush isn’t a pound it 25 times a game back, but is a terrific receiver, Brandon Marshall is a legit #1 and he’s got good other options including tight end Anthony Fasano). The line is pretty decent-to-good, and the defense kept them in a lot of games last season. The weather is terrific, and it’s near his family (Manning has a house near Miami already). But the #1 reason I believe Manning will go to Miami?
  They. Are. Desperate. The Dolphins are begging for some good news. Owner Stephen Ross went after Jim Harbaugh and got rebuffed last season. He tried for Jeff Fisher this year and Fisher chose St. Louis. Ross needs something to sell to the fans so they won’t all think, “Another season middling along and staring up at Tom Brady and the Patriots. Bottom line, Manning may prefer Denver or Arizona, but if he takes a meeting with Miami, they will not let him get back on the plane. They will do whatever it takes to override whatever doubts he has (sign Reggie Wayne? Sure! Dallas Clark? Sure! Jeff Saturday? No problem!), and I believe Peyton Manning will be wearing a Miami uniform on opening weekend in September.