Note: If you're interested in actually watching this game, it's on Telemundo. The English language broadcast isn't happening. ESPN termed the price the Mexican Football Federation demanded for the game as "extortionate".
Tomorrow is the first step for the new US Soccer team.
Sure, it's the 6th game out of 10 in CONCACAF qualifying and, yes, the US has played other, meaningful games as recently as earlier this summer (no, the Gold Cup doesn't really count), but this is their first real game since they turned the world on its ear over 135 minutes in the Confederations Cup. That run was billed as America's coming out party and the US serving notice for 2010 in South Africa.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. First, the US still needs to qualify for South Africa. They're in very good position, but the berth isn't locked up. Second, there's just under a year until the World Cup actually kicks off. So much can change in a year. If the US is content to coast on their Confed Cup showing, 2010 will go a lot like 2006. Third, the US will not get a chance to play many important games between now and the World Cup. All that's left are qualifying matches and friendlies (and friendlies are dog manure). And of the qualifying matches, the only one left that can approach playing a team like Brazil or Spain is the one tomorrow afternoon. At Mexico. In the Azteca stadium.
Now, the US does NOT in any way need a win tomorrow to qualify for the World Cup. The US doesn't even need a draw to feel good about qualifying. As explained in a blog post on ESPN's US Soccer blog, no CONCACAF team has not qualified for the World Cup with at least 15 points since the region got 3 automatic berths for the 1998 Cup. The US currently has 10 points with 2 home games remaining. Take care of business at home, and they'll practically punch their ticket. Even if they win one of the home dates and draw the other, that leaves them likely needed just a draw out of their remaining 2 away dates, neither of which involves Mexico or Costa Rica. So, by the math, the US does not need any result in tomorrow's match.
Which brings us to Mexico. Despite the 5-0 stomping of the US B/C team in the Gold Cup final, this is a team in turmoil. They ahve had 4 coaches since the 2006 Cup, and their current coach, Javier Aguirre, was suspended for 3 games of the Gold Cup for kicking an opposing player. Mexico also sits 4th in the 6 team group (the top 3 earn automatic berths to South Africa), and has never lost to the US in a home qualifying match (all-time record: 22-0-1) so there is a ton of pressure on the home side for this match.
For all of these reasons, the US needs to push for the win. They need to show that they can deal with a 2nd tier team in their most hostile home arena to give themselves the continued confidence that they can play with and beat the top teams on neutral (read: non-European) ground. This is by far the US team's best chance to break the Azteca hex, and there is no reason not to go for it, as a loss doesn't damage their chances of qualifying.
What does this mean for coach Bob Bradley? A couple of things:
1) Don't go conservative with formations. Don't start the game with a 4-5-1. I'm not asking for a 4-3-3, just the 4-4-2 that worked so well at the Confed Cup.
2) Start Benny Feilhaber in the midfield with Bradley, Dempsey, and Donovan. The temptation (I believe) will be to start Clark with the other 3 as Clark's strength is disrupting the other team's midfield, and if you're playing for the tie, that's a big part of that strategy. Instead, let's see the US pushing for that early goal. Feilhaber isn't in 90-minute shape yet, so have Clark ready at the 45th or 60th minute, but push hard for that first goal.
3) Start Jonathan Spector at right back. Spector impressed both with his defense and his long ball service at the Confed Cup. He's earned the start in Azteca.
The easy, by the book play is to play for a tie in this road qualifier. Don't settle, Bob. Go for the throat. Let's see if this team can face a team that has everything to play for, and rip its heart out.
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