Thursday Night Football Thoughts

I very much overestimated the fight Philly's players had in them when I made my pick before the game. Aside from Vince Young, LeSean McCoy, and maybe 3 or 4 others, no one on that Eagles team cared. And while Vince Young clearly cared, he also threw 4 interceptions and was one of the biggest factors in Philly losing that game.

If I'm an NFL GM, and I watched that game, how could I justify paying good money to DeSean Jackson? His frame limits him to deep routes and punt returns (though admittedly he's electric at both), but he's got too much Randy Moss the Oakland years in him.

I'm not sure which NFLN commercial is more exasperating to see 500 times during a TNF broadcast: the NFLN pregame show same 3 blurbs ("How about this Tom Brady guy?") or the Red Zone channel showing the same 5 plays with slightly out of sync audio. Couldn't you rotate 3 or 4 commercials to promote your stuff, NFL? Please?

Marshawn Lynch was the anti-DeSean in that a) he clearly cared (see his first TD run), b) is convincing GMs to pay him, and c) should have an endorsement contract with Skittles by next weekend.

As exciting as it was to see my Seahawks win, this game did more to show me Seattle's limitations and how far they still have to go than it did show me how far they've come. Tarvaris Jackson had a great game, statistically, but watching him I saw all the things I've seen all along: no pocket awareness, I don't think he stepped into one throw all night, and an inability to read the blitz or change the play as a result of reading blitz. Defensively, Seattle's cornerbacks did not play especially well, they were simply bailed out by Vince Young's errant throws and the Philly receivers' inability to catch the ball. They have made ample progress from 1 and 2 years ago, but there is still quite some room to improve for this young team.

Finally, Andy Reid has either given up along with 80% of his team, or he's just out to lunch.
- It took him until the 3rd quarter to realize he should run his offense through his best player (LeSean McCoy).
- Not calling a timeout before Seattle's FG just before half, leaving his team 16 seconds to move the ball instead of ~50 seconds.
- Allowing Juan Castillo to continue using the Wide-9 alignment all the time, even against teams with terrible QBs and big threats at RB (like Seattle).
- Not watching any tape from last week's Redskins-Seahawks game. If he had, he would have seen how poorly Seattle reacted to screen passes and play action fakes, plus he would have seen how poorly Tarvaris Jackson did against 6-7 man blitzes (he didn't even get the throw off multiple times against Washington).

Has Reid done plenty for Philly? Yes. Is it time for him to go? Absolutely.

Suck for Luck Picture, Week 12

Current NFL Draft Order

Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct	SOS	Conf	Div
1	Indianapolis	0	11	0	.000	.540	0-7	0-3
2	St. Louis	2	9	0	.182	.574	1-8	0-3
3	Minnesota	2	9	0	.182	.574	2-6	0-4
4	Jacksonville	3	8	0	.273	.494	3-6	2-2
5	Carolina	3	8	0	.273	.511	1-7	0-2
6	Miami	3	8	0	.273	.523	2-6	1-2
7	Washington	4	7	0	.364	.455	4-5	1-3
8	Arizona	4	7	0	.364	.472	4-5	2-2
9	Philadelphia	4	7	0	.364	.506	4-5	3-1
10	Kansas City	4	7	0	.364	.517	3-6	2-2
11	Cleveland*	4	7	0	.364	.523	3-5	0-2
12	Seattle*	4	7	0	.364	.527	3-4	2-1
13	San Diego	4	7	0	.364	.534	3-5	2-3
14	Tampa Bay	4	7	0	.364	.546	3-5	2-1

The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).
After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.
* designates two teams who would determine the higher pick between them via a coin flip.

Remaining Schedules:
Indianapolis: @NE, @BAL, TEN, HOU, @JAX
St. Louis: @SF, @SEA, CIN, @PIT, SF
Minnesota: DEN, @DET, NO, @WAS, CHI
Jacksonville: SD, TB, @ATL, @TEN, IND
Carolina: @TB, ATL, @HOU, TB, @NO
Miami: OAK, PHI, @BUF, @NE, NYJ
Washington: NYJ, NE, @NYG, MIN, @PHI
Philadelphia: @SEA, @MIA, NYJ, @DAL, WAS
Arizona: DAL, SF, CLE, @CIN, SEA
Kansas City: @CHI, @NYJ, GB, OAK, @DEN
Cleveland: BAL, @PIT, @ARI, @BAL, PIT
Seattle: PHI, STL, @CHI, SF, @ARI
San Diego: @JAX, BUF, BAL, @DET, @OAK
Tampa Bay: CAR, @JAX, DAL, @CAR, @ATL

Indy needs to hope Houston has clinched by week 16 or that Jacksonville just wants the season to end in week 17, or they'll join the Lions in the Hall of Shame.

I'm not sure who has it worse, Cleveland or St. Louis. I guess St. Louis because at least Cleveland gets to play Arizona, but look at those schedules. Yikes.

In this scenario, after Indy took Luck, no one else would grab a QB until Miami at pick 6, but then 5 or 6 of the next 7 teams drafting would be looking hard at quarterbacks (depending on how Arizona views Kevin Kolb). There aren't 7 QBs worthy of a first round pick (let alone a top-half of the first round pick), and combined with the new CBA limiting bonus money to rookies, we could see more trades than ever come April.

NFC Playoff Picture, Week 12

NFC Playoff Picture

Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Div	Conf
1	Green Bay	11	0	0	1.000	4-0	9-0
2	San Francisco	9	2	0	.818	2-0	7-1
3	New Orleans	8	3	0	.727	3-1	5-3
4	Dallas	7	4	0	.636	2-1	5-2
5	Chicago	7	4	0	.636	2-2	6-3
6	Atlanta	7	4	0	.636	1-2	5-4
-	Detroit	7	4	0	.600	2-2	5-4
-	New York Giants	6	5	0	.545	1-2	3-5

Remaining Schedules:
Green Bay: @NYG, OAK, @KC, CHI, DET
San Francisco: STL, @ARI, PIT, @SEA, @STL
New Orleans: DET, @TEN, @MIN, ATL, CAR
Dallas: @ARI, NYG, @TB, PHI, @NYG
Chicago: KC, @DEN, SEA, @GB, @MIN
Atlanta: @HOU, @CAR, JAX, @NO, TB
Detroit: @NO, MIN, @OAK, SD, @GB
New York Giants: GB, @DAL, WAS, @NYJ, DAL

A slightly different story here. Green Bay's chances of going undefeated look pretty good a) if they go for it and b) if they get past the Giants. The same Giants team who just got obliterated by New Orleans? That's right, that team has a habit of showing up when you least expect it.

San Francisco has one tough game on the schedule, the rest of their games are against the rest of their dvision, and there isn't a threat in there.

New Orleans has games against Detroit and Atlanta, but the rets of their slate doesn't look too bad. Atlanta has games against Houston (with the 3rd stringer leading them), New Orleans, and the sometimes frisky Tampa Bay team. The week 16 game in New Orleans should decide things.

Chicago has Green Bay and Denver on their schedule, the rest of their games don't look too bad, but they have Caleb Hanie or Josh McCown leading them, which throws a monkey wrench into things. Detroit's got New Orleans, and Green Bay, but they play the Packers in week 17, and Green Bay should have everything wrapped up by then. Will they play hard (Patriots 2007) or take their foot off the gas (Indy 2009)?

The Giants may have to sweep their 2 games versus the Cowboys, because the rest of their schedule (Green Bay, Washington, and the Jets) is a murderer's row compared to what Dallas will face (Arizona, Tampa Bay, Philly).

AFC Playoff Picture, Week 12

AFC Playoff Picture

Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Div	Conf
1	Houston	8	3	0	.727	4-0	7-2
2	New England	8	3	0	.727	3-1	6-2
3	Baltimore	8	3	0	.727	3-0	5-2
4	Oakland	7	4	0	.636	2-2	5-4
5	Pittsburgh	8	3	0	.727	1-2	6-3
6	Cincinnati	7	4	0	.636	2-2	6-3
-	Denver	6	5	0	.545	3-2	6-3
-	New York Jets	6	5	0	.545	3-2	5-5
-	Tennessee	6	5	0	.500	1-2	4-4
-	Buffalo	5	6	0	.455	1-3	3-4

Remaining Schedules:
Houston: ATL, @CIN, CAR, @IND, TEN
New England: IND, @WAS, @DEN, MIA, BUF
Baltimore: @CLE, IND, @SD, CLE, @CIN
Oakland: @MIA, @GB, DET, @KC, SD
Pittsburgh: CIN, CLE, @SF, STL, @CLE
Cincinnati: @PIT, HOU, @STL, ARI, BAL
Denver: @MIN, CHI, NE, @BUF, KC
New York Jets: @WAS, KC, @PHI, NYG, @MIA
Tennessee: @BUF, NO, @IND, JAX, @HOU
Buffalo: TEN, @SD, MIA, DEN, @NE

There are a lot of easy schedules among the conference leaders. Houston may be starting a 3rd string quarterback (or Jake Delhomme) the rest of the way, but they should get 2 wins (Carolina and Indy), which means Tennessee would have to win all of their games to set up a week 17 showdown for the division.

New England doesn't have to worry about the division, their sights are firmly set on the #1 seed. And unless they fall victim to their Mile High curse, they could easily go 5-0 the rest of the way.

Baltimore and Pittsburgh each play Cleveland twice and Cincy once. Baltimore has two pushovers (Indy and San Diego) while Pittsburgh has one pushover (St. Louis), and one tough test (at San Francisco). As long as Baltimore takes care of business, they should finally get a home playoff game in the Harbaugh era.

Cincinnati has the toughest schedule of the current top-6, with Baltimore, Houston, and Pittsburgh on the schedule. Of all the teams chasing them, the Jets look like the biggest threat, schedule-wise.

Urban Meyer stressed out by family, retires from spending more time with them to coach Ohio State

link

Or, perhaps, his family got sick of him squeezing every last drop out of their family gatherings with his innovative ideas.

Whatever the case may be, I think two things are pretty clear:

1) Ohio State has landed on its feet less than a year after Tressel was forced out in disgrace. They secured a heck of a college football coach, and this has to indicate the sanctions that are coming won't be too bad (Lane Kiffin might have to suffer through some lean years to get a high profile job, Urban Meyer does not).

2) Meyer is going to be dogged by questions about his health and desire, and fairly so. That will all go away if/when he wins like he has at every other stop, but until that time, you better enjoy the ride, because it could end at any time.