NFL Picks, Week 17

THIS WEEK'S NFL TV MAPS: 506SPORTS

Note that both CBS and FOX have doubleheaders on Sunday. Also note that all 16 games are being played on Sunday. 

The majority of the country (in terms of map coverage, not necessarily number of households) will see 

New England at Miami (CBS, 1 PM)

Dallas at Philadelphia (FOX, 1:00 PM) 

Oakland at Denver (CBS, 4:25 PM)

New York Giants at Washington (FOX, 4:25PM)

The entire country will see 

Green Bay at Detroit (NBC, 8:30)

Home teams in CAPS.

Houston (+3) over TENNESSEE
Neither team has anything to play for. Houston because they are locked into the AFC's 4 seed (they should just rename the 4th seed the AFC South Division Entrant at this point), and Tennessee because they are eliminated. Both teams are starting their backup quarterbacks, but Houston is doing so on purpose (having benched Brock Osweiler) and Tennessee is starting Matt Cassel (because of Marcus Mariota's broken leg). When Matt Cassel is giving points, take them.

Buffalo (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS
I have been saying it for weeks now, the Jets are mailing in the end of their season. And they don't even have Rex Ryan on the other sideline anymore to inspire them to care.

Baltimore (+1) over CINCINNATI
I know playing for Player X is a trite, overused, and not especially accurate storyline for these types of games, but Steve Smith is so respected (and feared) league-wide, that I say the emotional boost of winning for the retiring Smith will help lift the Ravens over the 5-9-1 Bengals. That plus the fact the Ravens are the better team.

INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5) over Jacksonville
I said last week that a simple coaching change wouldn't be enough to fix he debacle that Blake Bortles has turned into, and then he went out and put up a line of 26/38, 325 yards, 1 TD/0 INT. So yeah, that take isn't looking as good as I'd hoped. But I'm doubling down on it. Bortles looked good at home, let's see if his newfound improvement travels. I say no.

Chicago (+6.5) over MINNESOTA
Too many points for that Minnesota offense. This will be a dull affair, and it will be low-scoring. Take the points.

Carolina (+5) over TAMPA BAY
The Buccaneers won't be able to get up for this game as they've been all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. Yes they can still qualify, but it would take a win, a Green Bay loss, and about 6 other games breaking correctly for it to happen. Oh, and one of those 6 results they need is for the Redskins to tie the Giants.

Cleveland (+6) over PITTSBURGH
The Steelers are openly talking about resting pretty much everyone on offense as they're locked into the 3rd seed. Another dull affair with little scoring, and another spot where I'm taking the points.

MIAMI (+9.5) over New England
The Patriots went into Miami last year needing a win to clinch home field advantage, came out with an ultra-conservative game plan, lost the game, lost home field advantage, and ended up losing in Denver in the playoffs. I don't see New England making that mistake again, but Miami is its own house of horrors for the Pats and this Miami team is better than that one, even with Tannehill out. The spread is simply too high for my tastes.

New Orleans (+7) over ATLANTA
The Saints seem to be finishing strong too late for it to matter yet again, and they will be motivated to spoil Atlanta's shot at a first round bye. I don't see the Falcons running away with this one.

Arizona (-6.5) over LOS ANGELES
To say the Rams offense is stumbling to the finish line would be a gross oversell. Arizona will put up points and the Rams will be glad to leave this season behind as soon as the clock hits zero.

Kansas City (-5.5) over SAN DIEGO
The Chiefs are good, and have a chance to clinch a bye, while the Chargers are bad and have nothing to play for. And they have the moving to LA drama hanging over them, so it's not like they'll get a boost from playing at home.

Seattle (-9.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
This is entirely based on my lack of respect for the talent on the 49ers. I do not have any idea what I'm going to see from the Seahawks offense week to week, but I remain confident they will show enough to put away San Francisco.

Oakland (+1.5) over DENVER
The Broncos offense is broken enough that even playing against the soft Raider defense won't jump start them, and I'm not sure how motivated Denver will be to win this game and help the Chiefs team that had their defensive tackle throw a touchdown pass late in last Sunday's game.

WASHINGTON (-7.5) over New York Giants
The Giants are locked into the 5 seed, so it's hard to see them not resting players in this one, and the Redskins are all but into the playoffs with a win.

Green Bay (-3) over DETROIT
Everything about the last month of this season points to the Packers demolishing the Lions to grab the NFC North title.

Last week: 7-9 (.438)

Season: 115-116-9 (.498)

NFL Power Poll, Week 16

Rank	Team	Record	Score	Last Score	Difference	Last Month Score	Month Difference
1	New England Patriots	13-2	26.33	21.75	4.58	19.53	6.80
2	Dallas Cowboys	13-2	19.99	18.15	1.84	22.70	-2.71
3	Atlanta Falcons	10-5	15.37	12.57	2.80	7.71	7.65
4	Tennessee Titans	8-7	10.88	13.48	-2.60	12.16	-1.28
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	10-5	10.28	11.49	-1.21	9.15	1.13
6	Green Bay Packers	9-6	9.42	7.66	1.76	4.38	5.04
7	New Orleans Saints	7-8	7.88	8.84	-0.96	13.51	-5.64
8	Buffalo Bills	7-8	6.56	6.09	0.48	5.94	0.62
9	Seattle Seahawks	9-5-1	5.36	3.93	1.42	-2.50	7.86
10	San Diego Chargers	5-10	5.34	7.12	-1.79	8.53	-3.19
11	Oakland Raiders	12-3	3.78	1.38	2.40	6.60	-2.83
12	Baltimore Ravens	8-7	3.74	3.44	0.30	3.67	0.08
13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8-7	3.74	3.54	0.20	4.89	-1.15
14	Miami Dolphins	10-5	2.79	4.11	-1.32	5.66	-2.88
15	Arizona Cardinals	6-8-1	2.49	4.29	-1.81	5.61	-3.12
16	Washington Redskins	8-6-1	1.22	-0.82	2.04	5.74	-4.53
17	New York Giants	10-5	0.83	-0.11	0.94	-0.49	1.32
18	Cincinnati Bengals	5-9-1	0.17	-0.53	0.70	-6.01	6.18
19	Denver Broncos	8-7	-0.40	4.11	-4.51	9.89	-10.30
20	Indianapolis Colts	7-8	-0.97	1.46	-2.43	-9.54	8.57
21	Carolina Panthers	6-9	-1.63	1.88	-3.52	2.14	-3.77
22	Kansas City Chiefs	11-4	-2.09	-7.02	4.93	-8.25	6.16
23	Houston Texans	9-6	-2.15	-1.77	-0.38	-1.78	-0.36
24	Philadelphia Eagles	6-9	-2.80	-2.34	-0.46	-1.54	-1.26
25	Detroit Lions	9-6	-3.41	-0.36	-3.05	-0.33	-3.08
26	Minnesota Vikings	7-8	-4.20	-2.15	-2.05	1.94	-6.13
27	Chicago Bears	3-12	-8.34	-7.01	-1.33	-10.92	2.58
28	Jacksonville Jaguars	3-12	-9.68	-12.20	2.52	-15.93	6.24
29	Los Angeles Rams	4-11	-17.37	-18.25	0.87	-13.96	-3.42
30	New York Jets	4-11	-18.27	-12.61	-5.66	-8.89	-9.39
31	San Francisco 49ers	2-13	-23.16	-25.65	2.49	-23.45	0.29
32	Cleveland Browns	1-14	-28.24	-31.71	3.46	-30.81	2.57

Biggest 1 week risers: 
1. Kansas City (+4.93)

2. New England (+4.58)

3. Cleveland (+3.46)

Biggest 1 week fallers: 

1. New York Jets (-5.66)

2. Denver (-4.51)

3. Carolina (-3.52)

Biggest 4 week risers: 
1. Indianapolis (+8.57)

2. Seattle (+7.86)

3. Atlanta (+7.65)

Biggest 4 week fallers: 

1. Denver (-10.30)

2. New York Jets (-9.39)

3. Minnesota (-6.13)

The Forumla: 

I have very slightly tweaked my formula from last season. It remains broken down into four parts: 

Part 1: Yards per play. 

Here I take each teams yards per carry (rushing) and yards per attempt (passing) numbers and subtract from them the YPC and YPA their defense allows.  The theory being that, if Team A's offense is better per play than what their opponent's offense can muster against Team A's defense, Team A should be consistently better than their opponents over a full game's worth of plays (60 to 70 per game approximately). 

This part of the formula is unchanged from last year's model. 

Part 2: Toxic Differential
A better yards per play differential is helpful to a team's chances of winning, but just how often is an NFL team able to consistently drive down the field taking 5-8 yards at a time? You're essentially asking an NFL offense to put together 10-12 plays without more than 1-2 negative plays, be they incompletions, sacks, no-gainers, or worse: turnovers. It's doable, but it's really hard to do with any sort of consistency in a single game.

This is why coaches harp on turnovers so much. A turnover a) takes away an opponent's possession which decreases their chances of scoring more points, and b) can give your team a shorter field so you don't have to put together an 80+ yard drive to get points of your own. The problem with turnovers is you can't count on them. So much of what goes into a turnover is dependent on a) the other team and b) luck that relying on turnovers is a dangerous proposition.

So yes, turnovers are important. But there's something else that can make getting points in a drive much easier: big plays. If my offense can get 20 or 30 yards in a single play, that cuts out 4-6 plays of grinding, or 4-6 plays where something could go wrong. Now my offense only has to put 5-6 plays together on a drive where they also get a chunk play.

Brian Billick is credited with coming up with the toxic differential statistic. This adds your takeaways and big plays generated by your offense and subtracts your giveaways and the big plays given up by your defense. Again, the theory goes that teams with a better toxic differential will be better at turning drives into points and games into wins. Pete Carroll also bases his offensive and defensive identity around turnovers and big plays being the most important indicators for both sides of the ball.

Note: For this formula, a big play is considered a rushing play of 10+ yards or a passing play of 25+ yards.

I have tweaked the weight of this portion of the model again. In Year 1, this part was weighed too heavily. Last year I went too far the other way. This year I hope I have found some middle ground. 

Part 3: 3rd Down Efficiency
While turnovers and chunk plays make moving the ball down the field much easier, it is possible to crawl your way to points with long, sustained drives. However, you can't have a long, sustained drive without converting 3rd downs. If you're not hitting for explosive plays, you had better convert some 3rd downs, otherwise your drive will end in a punt, instead of points. 

This part of the formula is unchanged from last year's model. 

Part 4: Points Per Drive
What's the most important job of an NFL team? Score more points than your opponent. Rather than look simple points per game differential, I wanted to dig a little deeper and normalize the data a little further. Game-to-game the number of possessions can vary based on team tempo, weather coniditons, etc. So instead I looked at points per drive data for each team's offense and defense, and multiplied the difference by 10. Why 10? A typical NFL game has 12 possessions, but 1-2 of those come at a point where a team isn't really interested in scoring (maybe they get the ball with 12 seconds to go before halftime, or they get it with 3 minutes to go in the game up 14+ points already. 10 seemed like a good number of possessions per game where the end goal is to score points.

This part of the formula is unchanged from last year's model.