Saturday, 4:00 PM - ESPN
Brazil vs Netherlands
Prediction: Netherlands 3, Brazil 1
I could see Brazil getting up for this game if Argentina had been the opponent, but they aren't going to shake off the Germany embarrassment in time for this one.
Final:
Sunday, 3:00 PM - ABC
Germany vs Argentina
Prediction: Germany 2, Argentina 0
Germany is simply the much better team. Messi will keep Argentina in it (and keep Germany much more honest than Brazil did), but the quality of the German side will win out in the end.
Semifinal Results:
Germany 7, Brazil 1
What an undressing that was. Germany absolutely took Brazil to the cleaners.
The first point of the match many noticed was Brazil's sorry attempt at defending. This was the result of a combination of factors:
1) Losing Thiago Silva, the rock of the defense, not only robbed Brazil of their best defender, but the glue that made every other defender on the pitch better.
2) Brazil could not have defended more differently than they did in their quarterfinal match against Colombia. I believe the switch was philosophical. Brazil believed they could be (overly) physical with Colombia and the Colombians would not be able to handle it. In short, Brazil could bully Colombia. But if Brazil tried to do the same against Germany, they were (rightly) worried that the Germans would simply shrug them off and press the attack. As a result Brazil switched tactics, only they went too far the other way, much to their detriment.
At this level an attacking player should never receive the ball less than 25 yards from his opponent's goal while facing away from it and have time to turn to face the goal without being closed down. But time after time that's exactly what happened for Germany.
It helped that Brazil essentially quit after the second goal in the first half. I don't believe this was a conscious decision of the players, rather they were completely shell-shocked at what Germany had done to them. They recovered after halftime and in truth were quite unlucky to not make it 5-1 or 5-2 in the first 10-15 minutes after halftime, but the damage had already been done.
I enjoy watching Manuel Neuer play keeper for Germany, because it's abundantly clear that he wants to be an outfield player more than anything. He's clearly a terrific keeper, but he takes every opportunity to show his skills with the ball at his feet.
Argentina 0, Netherlands 0 (Argentina wins 4-2 on penalties)
I was disappointed in this game. I believed we'd see more of an attacking, back-and-forth game. Instead we saw a fervent (and effective) commitment from each team to defending their own goals. Netherlands devoted many resources to corralling Messi, and it left their attacks completely disjointed. Argentina did a better job of getting forward, but without Messi able to orchestrate the attack, too often it fizzled on them.
One thing I couldn't help but notice, is how Netherlands winger back Dirk Kuyt refused to bomb forward up the sideline past the 18 yard line. Time after time, Kuyt would charge forward to about 25-30 yards away from goal on the sideline, and he would always cut back inside and send in a cross from there. I'm not sure if this was because Kuyt didn't trust his left foot at all to make a decent cross, or if he was under orders not to get too far upfield and stretch the defense. I suspect it was the latter, but either way I was shocked he never pushed further upfield even once.
FIFA needs to get with the times on concussions. Argentine player Javier Mascherano took an (unintentional) blow to the head in the middle of this game. Thirty seconds later he was staggering to the ground. After being looked at by the trainers, he was back in the game less than a minute later. It's not that he didn't play well for the remainder of the game, it's that he's seriously risking his health because what player isn't going to go back out there in that situation? Many sporting leagues have policies in place to protect the players from themselves when it comes to head injuries. FIFA needs one yesterday.
So in their quarterfinal matchup, Netherlands coach Louis van Gaal used one of his three substitutions to switch keepers just before extra time expired and the game moved onto penalties. The moved worked brilliantly, and the Netherlands advanced. In this matchup, van Gaal used all 3 subs on outfield players, leaving his normal keeper to stay on for penalties.
It did not go well.
The keeper (Jasper Cillessen) exuded none of the confidence his teammate (Tim Krul) did a few days prior, and while Cillessen got his hand on 2 of the 4 Argentine penalties, he was unable to keep any of them out of the net.
But while Cillessen didn't cover himself in glory, the Netherlands lost the match because they (with one exception) looked nothing like the confident, clinical team that dispatched Costa Rica on penalties the round prior. Arjen Robben coolly nailed his kick into the side netting, but neither of the other two takers did well at all. One of those takers was Wesley Sneijder, who had nailed his kick against Costa Rica. The other one was Ron Vlaar, which is important to note for 2 reasons:
1) He had not been one of the 4 penalty takers against Costa Rica
2) He is a center back
Now I'm no expert, but with almost zero exceptions, a center back should never be one of the first five penalty takers. A center back's skillset will very rarely intersect with a good penalty taker's.
Louis van Gaal did come out after the game and say his first two choices for the first penalty kick begged off, but he had to have other options that weren't center backs.
Updated Bracket
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ROUND of 16
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QUARTERFINALS
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SEMIFINALS
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FINALS
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A1
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Brazil
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1
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(3)
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B2
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Chile
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1
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(2)
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A1
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Brazil
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2
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C1
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Colombia
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1
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C1
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Colombia
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2
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D2
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Uruguay
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0
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A1
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Brazil
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1
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G1
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Germany
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7
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E1
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France
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2
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F2
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Nigeria
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0
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E1
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France
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0
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G1
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Germany
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1
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G1
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Germany
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2
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aet
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H2
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Algeria
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1
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G1
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Germany
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F1
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Argentina
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B1
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Netherlands
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2
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A2
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Mexico
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1
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B1
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Netherlands
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0
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(4)
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D1
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Costa Rica
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0
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(3)
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D1
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Costa Rica
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1
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(5)
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C2
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Greece
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1
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(3)
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B1
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Netherlands
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0
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(2)
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F1
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Argentina
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0
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(4)
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F1
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Argentina
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1
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aet
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E2
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Switzerland
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0
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3RD PLACE
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F1
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Argentina
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1
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H1
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Belgium
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0
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A1
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Brazil
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H1
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Belgium
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2
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aet
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B1
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Netherlands
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G2
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United States
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1
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