NFL Picks, Week 17

This week's NFL TV maps: 506sports

The majority of the country (in terms of map coverage, not necessarily number of households) will see 

New York Jets at Buffalo (CBS, 1 PM)

Washington at Dallas (FOX, 1 PM)

San Diego at Denver (CBS, 4:25 PM)

Seattle at Arizona (FOX, 4:25 PM)

The entire country will see 

Minnesota at Green Bay (NBC, 8:30)

Note, all times above are Eastern.

It's funny, when I first started picking NFL games, Thursday night games were the bane of my existence. I believe I started the 2013 season missing on the first 7 or 8 weeks of Thursday night games. Now, Thursday night games are where I do my best picking. It's the other end of NFL weekends that's dragging me down, Monday Nights. 

More importantly, I have a chance to finish above .500 in my picks for the second year in a row (and second time ever). It all comes down to week 17, as I am exactly at .500 going into this weekend. 

As always, home teams in CAPS.

New York Jets (-3) over BUFFALO

I firmly believe Rex Ryan would love nothing more than to win this game and knock the Jets out of the playoffs (as long as the Steelers cooperate). I just don't believe that Rex's players attach anything approaching similar importance to doing so. 

MIAMI (+10.5) over New England

I don't really believe the Patriots are good enough offensively right now to run away from pretty much anybody. My hesitation in picking the Dolphins is entirely based on the fact that I'm not sure they didn't quit a couple of weeks ago. 

ATLANTA (-4) over New Orleans

I'm going to pick the team that doesn't have the historically bad defense in this one. Heck, Atlanta would still be alive for a playoff spot right now if they hadn't turned the ball over about 26 times the last time these two teams played. 

HOUSTON (-6) over Jacksonville

The Texans have won their last two games behind Brandon Weeden. This week they get Brian Hoyer back. They're not losing this game with the playoffs in sight. 

Pittsburgh (-10) over CLEVELAND

Likely too little too late, but the Steelers will come out angry and firing for this one after dropping their second game of the season to the 5-win Ravens last weekend. 

Indianapolis (-6) over TENNESSEE

Can I really back the Colts when they're down to Josh Freeman, Stephen Morris, and Ryan Lindley at the quarterback position? When their opponent is the 3-12 Titans without Marcus Mariota, yes I can. 

Washington (+3.5) over DALLAS

The Redskins are firmly locked into the 4 seed, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them rest quite a few players for this game. The Cowboys are starting Kellen Moore at quarterback. Advantage: Washington. 

Detroit (+1) over CHICAGO

One of these teams is 5-2 in their last 7 games, and one of those losses was on an honest-to-goodness Hail Mary pass as time expired. The other one is favored in this game. 

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Philadelphia

Both of these teams are playing out the string. One of them just fired their czar coach and personnel manager. I'll take the other one. 

CINCINNATI (-9) over Baltimore

Don't be fooled by last week's win over the Steelers, the Ravens still aren't good and Ryan Mallet isn't beating a quality defense when that defense still has something to play for. 

CAROLINA (-10.5) over Tampa Bay

With the undefeated season pressure off the table, the Panthers should go out and take care of business to wrap up home field advantage this weekend. 

KANSAS CITY (-6.5) over Oakland

The Chiefs still have a shot at the division title. Granted they need the Broncos to lose to the Chargers, so it's an unlikely shot, but they're also riding a 9-game winning streak. I don't see the Raiders ending it. 

SAN FRANCISCO (+3.5) over St. Louis

I don't know what voodoo magic Jeff Fisher is able to conjure up when his team faces the Seahawks. I just know that a) he can't seem to apply it consistently to any other team, and b) his team tends to come out flat the week after a big win over a divisional foe. 

DENVER (-9) over San Diego

This Broncos defense should devour the injury-riddled Charger offense. Oh, and the Chargers fined and deactivated their best defensive player (Eric Weddle) for watching his daughter perform at halftime of last week's game. That doesn't set up a team to rally to defeat the top team in their division with nothing else to play for. 

Seattle (+6.5) over ARIZONA

Even when Seattle loses they tend to keep things close, and they played well against the Cardinals a few weeks ago when they weren't shooting themselves in the foot with stupid penalties. That being said, the Cardinals are a legitimately scary prospect for every other NFC playoff team. They look like the strongest team on that half of the bracket regardless of whether or not the Panthers hold on to the #1 seed. 

GREEN BAY (-3) over Minnesota

I know how poor the Packers have looked offensively for most of the last 2-3 months, I'm just not ready to buy the Vikings as a legit threat to good teams yet. 

Happy New Year to all, may your 2016s be filled with blessings. 

Last week: 7-9 (.438)

Season: 117-117-6 (.500)

2015 Weekday Games: 10-7-1 (.583)

2015 Monday Night Games: 4-12-1 (.265)

NFL Power Poll, Week 16

Rank	Team	Record	Score	Last Score	Difference
1		13-2	29.29	27.08	2.21
2		9-6	24.99	27.12	-2.13
3		14-1	18.47	21.73	-3.26
4		12-3	16.11	19.45	-3.34
5		11-4	15.72	15.61	0.11
6		10-5	15.51	14.02	1.49
7		10-5	13.57	15.06	-1.49
8		10-5	9.43	6.01	3.42
9		8-7	7.23	4.32	2.91
10		9-6	6.39	8.67	-2.27
11		11-4	4.78	6.71	-1.93
12		8-7	3.03	1.21	1.82
13		8-7	1.61	0.68	0.93
14		6-9	1.45	0.34	1.11
15		7-8	1.42	1.22	0.20
16		10-5	0.98	5.19	-4.21
17		7-8	0.91	1.16	-0.25
18		4-11	-2.48	-2.75	0.27
19		6-9	-3.75	-2.71	-1.04
20		6-9	-7.11	-9.11	1.99
21		7-8	-8.10	-9.29	1.19
22		6-9	-8.17	-9.79	1.62
23		3-12	-9.11	-10.29	1.19
24		4-11	-9.12	-9.70	0.59
25		6-9	-9.30	-9.09	-0.21
26		7-8	-9.66	-10.31	0.66
27		6-9	-9.86	-6.93	-2.93
28		5-10	-10.17	-13.13	2.97
29		5-10	-10.98	-10.28	-0.70
30		3-12	-20.33	-18.19	-2.14
31		4-11	-21.17	-20.93	-0.24
32		5-10	-21.41	-22.37	0.97

Biggest 1 week risers: 

1. Minnesota (+3.42)

2. Baltimore (+2.97)

3. Houston (+2.91)

Biggest 4 week risers: 

1. Seattle (+15.78)

2. Detroit (+6.69)

3. Pittsburgh (+5.53)

Biggest 1 week fallers: 

1. Green Bay (-4.21)

2. New England (-3.34)

3. Carolina (-3.26)

Biggest 4 week fallers: 

1. Indianapolis (-8.11)

2. Tennessee (-6.24)

3. Dallas (-5.71)

The Forumla: 

I have modified my formula from last season. The new formula is broken down into four parts: 

Part 1: Yards per play. 

Here I take each teams yards per carry (rushing) and yards per attempt (passing) numbers and subtract from them the YPC and YPA their defense allows.  The theory being that, if Team A's offense is better per play than what their opponent's offense can muster against Team A's defense, Team A should be consistently better than their opponents over a full game's worth of plays (60 to 70 per game approximately). 

This part of the formula is unchanged from last year's model. 

Part 2: Toxic Differential
A better yards per play differential is helpful to a team's chances of winning, but just how often is an NFL team able to consistently drive down the field taking 5-8 yards at a time? You're essentially asking an NFL offense to put together 10-12 plays without more than 1-2 negative plays, be they incompletions, sacks, no-gainers, or worse: turnovers. It's doable, but it's really hard to do with any sort of consistency in a single game.

This is why coaches harp on turnovers so much. A turnover a) takes away an opponent's possession which decreases their chances of scoring more points, and b) can give your team a shorter field so you don't have to put together an 80+ yard drive to get points of your own. The problem with turnovers is you can't count on them. So much of what goes into a turnover is dependent on a) the other team and b) luck that relying on turnovers is a dangerous proposition.

So yes, turnovers are important. But there's something else that can make getting points in a drive much easier: big plays. If my offense can get 20 or 30 yards in a single play, that cuts out 4-6 plays of grinding, or 4-6 plays where something could go wrong. Now my offense only has to put 5-6 plays together on a drive where they also get a chunk play.

Brian Billick is credited with coming up with the toxic differential statistic. This adds your takeaways and big plays generated by your offense and subtracts your giveaways and the big plays given up by your defense. Again, the theory goes that teams with a better toxic differential will be better at turning drives into points and games into wins. Pete Carroll also bases his offensive and defensive identity around turnovers and big plays being the most important indicators for both sides of the ball.

Note: For this formula, a big play is considered a rushing play of 10+ yards or a passing play of 25+ yards.

This part of the formula is from last year's model, but I weigh it differently in this year's model. Last year it functioned as an accumulative factor over the course of the season, I changed the weighing to have it function as a per game factor, to better match the other parts of the formula. 

Part 3: 3rd Down Efficiency
Here is the big difference between last year's formula and this year's. While turnovers and chunk plays make moving the ball down the field much easier, it is possible to crawl your way to points with long, sustained drives. However, you can't have a long, sustained drive without converting 3rd downs. If you're not hitting for explosive plays, you had better convert some 3rd downs, otherwise your drive will end in a punt, instead of points. 

This part of the formula is brand new to this year's model. 

Part 4: Points Per Drive
What's the most important job of an NFL team? Score more points than your opponent. Rather than look simple points per game differential, I wanted to dig a little deeper and normalize the data a little further. Game-to-game the number of possessions can vary based on team tempo, weather coniditons, etc. So instead I looked at points per drive data for each team's offense and defense, and multiplied the difference by 10. Why 10? A typical NFL game has 12 possessions, but 1-2 of those come at a point where a team isn't really interested in scoring (maybe they get the ball with 12 seconds to go before halftime, or they get it with 3 minutes to go in the game up 14+ points already. 10 seemed like a good number of possessions per game where the end goal is to score points.