NFL Picks, Week 12

This week's NFL TV maps: 506sports

The majority of the country (in terms of map coverage, not necessarily number of households) will see 

Miami at New York Jets (CBS, 1 PM)

Minnesota at Atlanta (FOX, 1 PM)

The entire country will see 

Thursday:

Philadelphia at Detroit (FOX, 12:30)

Carolina at Dallas (CBS, 4:30)

Chicago at Green Bay (NBC, 8:30)

Sunday:

Pittsburgh at Seattle (CBS, 4:25) *except for the San Francisco market*

New England at Denver (NBC, 8:30)

Monday:

Baltimore at Cleveland (ESPN, 8:30)

Note, all times above are Eastern. 

Very quick hitters this week. Home teams in CAPS.

DETROIT (-2.5) over Philadlephia
The Eagles are a mess, and Mark Sanchez is their quarterback. 
Carolina (+1) over DALLAS 
This line opened at Carolina (-1), which seemed low at the time. I have no idea how we've gotten to a point where Dallas is the favorite. 
Chicago (+8.5) over GREEN BAY
In past years I'd pick Green Bay to win big because I was pretty confident Jay Cutler wouldn't get out of this game with less than 2 picks. Cutler's been a different QB this year. 

HOUSTON (-3) over New Orleans
Two teams going in opposite directions. 
Minnesota (+1) over ATLANTA
The Falcons are imploding, and the Vikings are a good team. 
CINCINNATI (-9) over St. Louis
I don't want to overstate the Rams' QB problems, but part of the reason Case Keenum was allowed to continue playing last week is the Rams have no idea what competent quarterbacking looks like. 
Tampa Bay (+3) over INDIANAPOLIS 
The better team cancels out Bald Mojo. 
New York Giants (-2.5) over WASHINGTON
Washington's defense has quietly fallen off a cliff in the last month. 
Oakland (-1.5) over TENNESSEE
Honestly? I flipped a coin. 
KANSAS CITY (-6) over Buffalo
The Chiefs are coming on strong (4-0 in their last 4 games), and Buffalo set offense back three decades on Monday night. 
NEW YORK JETS (-3.5) over Miami 
I don't trust the Dolphins more than I don't trust the Jets. 
JACKSONVILLE (-4) over San Diego
The Chargers are self combusting amidst their mountain of injuries
Arizona (-10.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
The 49ers can't stop anybody, let alone a top offense. 
Pittsburgh (+4) over SEATTLE
I want to be wrong, but I don't see this version of Seattle's defense stopping Ben Roethlisberger. And I don't see this version of the Seahawks offense keeping pace with Roethlisberger. 
DENVER (+3) over New England
The Patriots are vulnerable, thanks to their injuries. Denver's defense should feast. 
CLEVELAND (-2.5) over Baltimore
The Matt Schaub effect. 


2015 Midweek Games: 6-4-1

Last week: 8-5-1 (.607)
Season: 76-78-6 (.494)

NFL Power Poll, Week 11

Rank	Team	Record	Score	Last Score	Difference
1		8-2	22.67	24.42	-1.75
2		10-0	21.72	22.59	-0.87
3		10-0	17.46	12.95	4.51
4		8-2	15.67	17.90	-2.23
5		5-5	14.96	10.24	4.72
6		5-5	11.85	7.65	4.20
7		6-4	9.00	10.27	-1.27
8		7-3	7.82	9.71	-1.89
9		5-5	7.80	5.52	2.28
10		5-5	5.17	8.65	-3.48
11		5-5	4.62	7.04	-2.42
12		8-2	4.01	2.73	1.28
13		4-6	3.59	3.59	0.00
14		6-4	3.24	3.24	0.00
15		7-3	2.05	1.04	1.01
16		5-5	-0.04	-6.53	6.49
17		3-7	-0.19	-5.90	5.71
18		4-6	-0.42	0.37	-0.79
19		5-5	-0.54	-0.86	0.32
20		5-5	-5.17	-5.17	0.00
21		4-6	-5.77	-0.30	-5.47
22		2-8	-6.21	-1.10	-5.11
23		4-6	-6.56	-6.57	0.01
24		4-6	-7.90	-3.32	-4.58
25		4-6	-8.03	-7.69	-0.34
26		3-7	-9.17	-10.35	1.18
27		2-8	-10.19	-10.19	0.00
28		2-8	-11.65	-12.98	1.33
29		4-6	-14.92	-16.50	1.58
30		3-7	-17.79	-13.13	-4.66
31		4-6	-17.90	-14.33	-3.57
32		3-7	-18.78	-21.89	3.11

Biggest 1 week risers: 

1. Tampa Bay (+6.49)

2. Dallas (+5.71)

3. Seattle (+4.72)

Biggest 1 week fallers: 

1. Washington (-5.47)

2. San Diego (-5.11)

3. San Francisco (-4.66)

The Forumla: 

I have modified my formula from last season. The new formula is broken down into four parts: 

Part 1: Yards per play. 

Here I take each teams yards per carry (rushing) and yards per attempt (passing) numbers and subtract from them the YPC and YPA their defense allows.  The theory being that, if Team A's offense is better per play than what their opponent's offense can muster against Team A's defense, Team A should be consistently better than their opponents over a full game's worth of plays (60 to 70 per game approximately). 

This part of the formula is unchanged from last year's model. 

Part 2: Toxic Differential
A better yards per play differential is helpful to a team's chances of winning, but just how often is an NFL team able to consistently drive down the field taking 5-8 yards at a time? You're essentially asking an NFL offense to put together 10-12 plays without more than 1-2 negative plays, be they incompletions, sacks, no-gainers, or worse: turnovers. It's doable, but it's really hard to do with any sort of consistency in a single game.

This is why coaches harp on turnovers so much. A turnover a) takes away an opponent's possession which decreases their chances of scoring more points, and b) can give your team a shorter field so you don't have to put together an 80+ yard drive to get points of your own. The problem with turnovers is you can't count on them. So much of what goes into a turnover is dependent on a) the other team and b) luck that relying on turnovers is a dangerous proposition.

So yes, turnovers are important. But there's something else that can make getting points in a drive much easier: big plays. If my offense can get 20 or 30 yards in a single play, that cuts out 4-6 plays of grinding, or 4-6 plays where something could go wrong. Now my offense only has to put 5-6 plays together on a drive where they also get a chunk play.

Brian Billick is credited with coming up with the toxic differential statistic. This adds your takeaways and big plays generated by your offense and subtracts your giveaways and the big plays given up by your defense. Again, the theory goes that teams with a better toxic differential will be better at turning drives into points and games into wins. Pete Carroll also bases his offensive and defensive identity around turnovers and big plays being the most important indicators for both sides of the ball.

Note: For this formula, a big play is considered a rushing play of 10+ yards or a passing play of 25+ yards.

This part of the formula is from last year's model, but I weigh it differently in this year's model. Last year it functioned as an accumulative factor over the course of the season, I changed the weighing to have it function as a per game factor, to better match the other parts of the formula. 

Part 3: 3rd Down Efficiency
Here is the big difference between last year's formula and this year's. While turnovers and chunk plays make moving the ball down the field much easier, it is possible to crawl your way to points with long, sustained drives. However, you can't have a long, sustained drive without converting 3rd downs. If you're not hitting for explosive plays, you had better convert some 3rd downs, otherwise your drive will end in a punt, instead of points. 

This part of the formula is brand new to this year's model. 

Part 4: Points Per Drive
What's the most important job of an NFL team? Score more points than your opponent. Rather than look simple points per game differential, I wanted to dig a little deeper and normalize the data a little further. Game-to-game the number of possessions can vary based on team tempo, weather coniditons, etc. So instead I looked at points per drive data for each team's offense and defense, and multiplied the difference by 10. Why 10? A typical NFL game has 12 possessions, but 1-2 of those come at a point where a team isn't really interested in scoring (maybe they get the ball with 12 seconds to go before halftime, or they get it with 3 minutes to go in the game up 14+ points already. 10 seemed like a good number of possessions per game where the end goal is to score points.

This part of the formula is unchanged from last year's model.