Three thoughts on the Thursday Night Pickfest:
1. I said the Giants would put up some resistance, which would be a big step up from what Jacksonville and Philadelphia did defensively, and that would bring Kirk Cousins back to earth a bit. Well, the Giants did put up some resistance, but they didn't collapse the pocket like I thought they would. Instead, Cousins simply imploded. His mechanics were bad (throwing off his back foot, not setting his feet), and unlike a Stafford or a Cutler, Cousins doesn't have the arm to get away with that. Combine that with him seeming to go on tilt in the 3rd quarter and repeatedly try to make up the ever-increasing defecit in just one throw, and you get another midweek dud.
2. It's amazing how night and day the Giants offense has looked these last two weeks versus the opening weekend horror show in Detroit. Eli looks comfortable, he's decisive, and he actually is completing 70ish% of his passes. And, much to my (fantasy-related) chagrin, he's found another tight end to fall in love with.
3. Washington gets Seattle at home and goes to Arizona in the next two weeks. Before this game, Phil Simms said Cousins stated he just wanted to give the team back to RG3 with a good record. At this point he may want to just still be the interim starting quarterback when Griffin returns. It's not going to get better anytime soon.
As always, home team in CAPS.
"OAKLAND" (+3.5) over Miami
Ahh yes, another England game, featuring only the best of the NFL product: the 1-2 Miami Dolphins versus the 0-3 Oakland Raiders. Both of these coaches come in on the hot seat: Oakland's Dennis Allen because the team hasn't seemed to get one iota better in his 2+ years at the helm (in fairness this is the first year the cupboard hasn't been completely bare). And Miami's Joe Philbin because he's pretty clearly in over his head as a head coach (there was the bullying mess last year, you may have heard something about it) and now he created a quarterback controversy by refusing to publicly name Ryan Tannehill his starter even though he privately told Tannehill and the team he'd be starting. Oh, and the defensive players feel like they're being criminally misused.
Here's an idea: losing coach doesn't get to fly home and instead has to stay in England and coach the Tottenham Hotspur. Who's with me?
Green Bay (-2) over CHICAGO
Let's play a game of I believe.
I believe that Green Bay is truly a notch below the top teams in the NFC.
I believe that the Bears overall have more talent than the Packers.
I believe that Aaron Rodgers is a better quarterback than Jay Cutler, but the gap is much narrower than it has been in the recent past.
I believe Brandon Marshall (currently questionable) will play, but that he will be very limited (like Jets-game limited not 49er-game limited)
I believe that the Packers running game (a little more power-oriented) is better equipped to attack the Bears' weak front seven than the Bears game is to attack the Packers weak front seven.
I believe points will come early and often in this game.
I believe the Packers will win, but would probably swing my pick if Brandon Marshall were close to healthy.
HOUSTON (-3) over Buffalo
I know Buffalo jumped out to that 2-0 start, but you saw what happened last week when you get some semblance of pressure on EJ Manuel. He goes into full scatter-shot mode. Of course, Ryan Fitzpatrick does the exact same thing. In the end, I'll take the shaky quarterback at home over the shaky quarterback on the road.
INDIANAPOLIS (-8) over Tennessee
The Titans are facing the very real possibility of not having starting quarterback Jake Locker available for this game. Granted, Locker isn't an above-average quarterback in the NFL, but the man behind him is the one, the only, Clipboard Jesus himself (Charlie Whitehurst). Whitehurst is the guy who the Seattle coaches benched mid-game for Tarvaris Jackson. That doesn't seem so bad, right? I mean, Jackson's a decent backup who Seattle's currently trusting to steer the ship if something were to happen to Russell Wilson. Well, the reason Whitehurst was playing for Jackson was that he had a torn pectoral muscle. Whitehurst did such an unimpressive job over a game and a half that they stuck Jackson back in and played him for the rest of the season with that injury.
BALTIMORE (-3.5) over Carolina
I expected to see Carolina's offense struggle to move the ball this season (hence the predicted regression). Of course, I expected to see them struggle against good defenses. To see them so completely inept against the Steelers was a bit jarring. Even more jarring was seeing Pittsburgh gash the Panther defense so badly on the ground.
Baltimore isn't going to have the same success on the ground (Le'Veon Bell is better than anyone in the Ravens backfield), but they should have success through the air. Add in Steve Smith getting a crack at the only team he ever knew before they cut him this offseason, and it says here that Baltimore will put up points. And Carolina won't keep up.
Detroit (-1.5) over NEW YORK JETS
I mentioned above how the Giants look so much better than they did against the Lions in week 1. Yes, the Lions jumped out to an early lead and forced the Giants to play catch-up, but the Lions defense has looked legitimately good too. I think we're at the point were we have to ask, are the Giants actually decent-to-good and the Lions are just that much better?
The answer may be yes, but with a big ol' BUT: the Lions may be that good at home. That Giants game? Ford Field. The emasculation of Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense? Ford Field. Their one road game? A 24-7 loss to Carolina. Detroit has had struggles translating what (little) success they've had to the road since the early 90's (at least).
But they're playing an offense who went 1/6 in the red zone last week (at home) against Chicago, who sports nothing resembling a good defense. Jets fans won't be any more pleased with Geno Smith after this one.
BYE (-6) over St. Louis
There are six teams on bye this week, and I still almost couldn't find one to make this joke work (Bengals, Browns, Rams, Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks). And Cleveland is one of them!!! Do you know how hard it is to write this column without the easy Cleveland jokes to get me through the low times? It's that damn Brian Hoyer. He's so hot right now.
Thankfully St. Louis stepped up (down?) to (away from?) the plate. This is a team with the best young talent on its defensive line of any team in the league. So of course they bring in Gregg Williams, a coach who loves to blitz, even without talent to cover for it in his secondaries (no, really). The results? The Rams have 1 sack from their D-Line through three games. Oh, I almost forgot, the offensive coordinator is Brian Schottenheimer, so it's all on the defense this season if the Rams are going to be at all competitive.
PITTSBURGH (-7.5) Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is an absolute mess right now. I was sure that Lovie Smith would come in and actually get something out of a defense that had much more talent than the Schiano era would have you believe. But that simply hasn't happened. And if Pittsburgh could put up 37 on the Panthers, just how ugly is it going to get on Sunday?
SAN DIEGO (-13) over Jacksonville
I'm a little worried Blake Bortles could put up enough points to beat this lopsided spread, but I'm even more worried that the Jaguars offensive line can't protect Bortles at all. This is the offensive line who gave up 10 sacks to the Redskins. That's right, the same Redskins you just watch get torched last night.
Philadelphia (+5) over SAN FRANCISCO
Last year the 49ers started 1-2, including an embarassing home loss to the Indy Lucks, err...Colts. They went 11-2 the rest of the way and came within 30 seconds of making the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons. This year the 49ers have started 1-2, including an embarrassing home loss to Chicago.
Clearly San Francisco doesn't trust their offensive line (which is jarring to someone who has watched the 49ers in the Harbaugh era) so they aren't committed to the power run game. More distressingly, their defense can't consistently rush the passer. That will be a problem against the Chip Kelly offense, but seeing as Philadlephia doesn't really have a defense, the 49ers offensive woes should subside for at least this weekend.
It should be a shootout, and while I have the 49ers winning, they won't be able to pull away from the Eagles offense, who will cover.
MINNESOTA (+3) over Atlanta
Matt Ryan in open air <<<<<<<<< Matt Ryan in a dome.
Minnesota should get a boost from starting Teddy Bridgewater, and Bridgewater supporters should get a boost with Teddy getting to feast on the Falcons (lack of a) defense.
New Orleans (-3) over DALLAS
This was a Sunday Night game last year too. You may remember the carnage. But put that aside for a minute, Dallas very much has a chance in this game. You see, the Cowboys have embraced a ball-control offense, featuring heavy doses of DeMarco Murray. This allows them to shorten the game and avoid hanging their (awful) defense out to dry. Normally you'd say the Saints will simply score early and often and take the Cowboys out of the conservative game they want to play. In other years you'd be right. But this year something is just off about the Saints offense. I don't think they can run away with this one.
So why am I still picking them? I just don't trust Dallas' ability to cover Jimmy Graham. When Brees has his favorite toy, he can settle in and get comfortable.
KANSAS CITY (+3.5) over New England
Until I see actual evidence that the Patriot offensive line can give Tom Brady something resembling a clean pocket, I'm not buying the Patriot passing game. Without that passing game, New England's defense is going to have to lead the way as they did in week 2's 30-7 win over Minnesota. For all of Kansas City's faults, they don't beat themselves like that. Add in a pair of pass-rushing stars in Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, and this won't be a good Monday night for Pats fans.
This Week: 1-0 (Whoo-hoo!)
Last Week: 10-6 (.625)
2014 Season: 24-24 (.500)
Friday, September 26, 2014
Thursday, September 25, 2014
NFL Picks, Week 4 - Thursday Night Edition
New York Giants (+3) over WASHINGTON
This is a difficult one for me to pick, as the only Giants game I've seen was their week 1 debacle in Detroit. In that game the offense looked entirely out-of-sync as the Lions jumped out to an early lead and the Giants didn't threaten at all, and looked pretty clumsy in their attempts to.
Eli Manning's offensive coordinator made some waves when he stated Eli's goal was to complete 70% of his passes. Against Detroit he fell a bit short, completing only 55% of his passes, and for a paltry 4.9 ypa. Since then the Giants passing game has improved significantly. He completed 67% of his passes for 7.1 ypa (against Arizona) and 75% of his passes for 8.4 ypa (against Houston). Good performances against some very good defenses.
They face their division rivals the Redskins on the road on a short week. Washington is riding the scorching right arm of quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has put up 677 yards and 5TDs to just 1 interception since RG3 went down with (another) injury early in week 2. But it's always important to put numbers in context, and Cousins put up these numbers against Jacksonville and Philadelphia, two teams who put up little resistance defensively.
Both of these teams have good front sevens and questionable (at best) secondaries. So it comes down to which quarterback you can trust in a game where he won't likely see much help from his running game.
I like Cousins in a shootout, but if the game is sloppy and favors the defenses then I trust Manning to make a few extra plays at the end.
If this were a Sunday game, I'd be more inclined to predict the shootout. Instead this is the game where the Cousins express takes a step backwards, and the Giants actually get some pressure on him, which makes him an entirely different-looking quarterback.
2014 Midweek Picks: 3-0
This is a difficult one for me to pick, as the only Giants game I've seen was their week 1 debacle in Detroit. In that game the offense looked entirely out-of-sync as the Lions jumped out to an early lead and the Giants didn't threaten at all, and looked pretty clumsy in their attempts to.
Eli Manning's offensive coordinator made some waves when he stated Eli's goal was to complete 70% of his passes. Against Detroit he fell a bit short, completing only 55% of his passes, and for a paltry 4.9 ypa. Since then the Giants passing game has improved significantly. He completed 67% of his passes for 7.1 ypa (against Arizona) and 75% of his passes for 8.4 ypa (against Houston). Good performances against some very good defenses.
They face their division rivals the Redskins on the road on a short week. Washington is riding the scorching right arm of quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has put up 677 yards and 5TDs to just 1 interception since RG3 went down with (another) injury early in week 2. But it's always important to put numbers in context, and Cousins put up these numbers against Jacksonville and Philadelphia, two teams who put up little resistance defensively.
Both of these teams have good front sevens and questionable (at best) secondaries. So it comes down to which quarterback you can trust in a game where he won't likely see much help from his running game.
I like Cousins in a shootout, but if the game is sloppy and favors the defenses then I trust Manning to make a few extra plays at the end.
If this were a Sunday game, I'd be more inclined to predict the shootout. Instead this is the game where the Cousins express takes a step backwards, and the Giants actually get some pressure on him, which makes him an entirely different-looking quarterback.
2014 Midweek Picks: 3-0
Friday, September 19, 2014
NFL Picks, Week 3
I'd talk about last night's game, but really, what is there to say except someone should check Lovie Smith's alarm, because his season is now 3 weeks old and I'm not sure he's woken up yet. As always, home team in CAPS.
San Diego (+2.5) over BUFFALO
My head is telling me to pick Buffalo. Telling me that I'm underrating the Bills because of my biases coming into the season (in fairness, when was the last time the Bills did anything but underwhelm?) But my gut can't get the picture of Philip Rivers carving up the Seattle defense out of my mind. I don't love the Chargers on a long road trip to Buffalo, but I say Rivers puts up enough points that EJ Manuel has to play catchup, and that's where this Bills offense falls apart.
Dallas (-1) over ST. LOUIS
The Rams intimidating front seven does have a weakness: it can be run on. Dallas seems surprisingly (but correctly) committed to the run, so this should be a case of strength meets weakness, leading to a Dallas road win.
PHILADELPHIA (-6) over Washington
Now that RG3 is hurt, stories are popping up everywhere regarding "Kirk Cousins is actually a better fit" and "Cousins will be Jay Gruden's new Andy Dalton". I want to see Cousins do it against an NFL team not from Jacksonville first. Plus, Andy Dalton tends to be pretty erratic on the road.
Houston (-2) over NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants offense looked much better in week 2 than it did in week 1, but then again, that's not saying much. I don't like backing shaky Eli Manning (even at home) against JJ Watt and the Houston defense.
NEW ORLEANS (-10) over Minnesota
The Saints come home with two weeks worth of frustrating losses hanging over their heads to face a Vikings team with no Adrian Peterson and Matt Cassel starting at quarterback. Saints win big. Maybe not as big as Atlanta did last night, but big.
CINCINNATI (-7) over Tennessee
Cincinnati has won their last 10 regular season home games (that playoff game against San Diego last January is a pretty large asterisk), making the opposing quarterback look pretty bad (except for Andrew Luck, though his team still lost) in 9 of those games. Jake Locker is no Andrew Luck, and I don't see the Titans pressuring Andy Dalton into a significant amount of mistakes.
CLEVELAND (+1.5) over Baltimore
John Harbaugh is 9-1 versus Cleveland as Baltimore head coach. He's also on a 1-game losing streak to the Browns. Basically, if the Saints can't pull away from Cleveland, I don't buy the Ravens will either. And if the Browns can hang around, I think they can take the game in the end.
Green Bay (+2.5) over DETROIT
Both of these teams bring top offenses and incomplete defenses to the table. Detroit's defense doesn't include a functioning secondary, while Green Bay's is very lacking up front. The thing is, Detroit isn't that well equipped to take advantage of Green Bay's weakness, as their power running game is nothing like either Seattle's or the Jets' versions.
Indianapolis (-7) over JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis doesn't have a pass rush, but I'm not sure you need one to get to Jacksonville's quarterback. The Jaguars gave up 10 sacks to the Redskins last week. 10! Really! Add in Jacksonville's seeming inability to covers receivers downfield against either Philly or Washington, and, well, the Colts should put up lots of points.
Oakland (+14) over NEW ENGLAND
I'm not sure what to make of the New England offense. First they got clobbered and shut out in the second half of the Miami game, and then, despite downing the Vikings 30-7, they didn't break 300 yards of offense. We've been able to count on Brady and the offense hardly skipping a beat almost no matter what happens, especially against lesser teams, but is that true this year? I said before the season started that New England's defense would be the unit to carry this team back to the AFC Championship game (and beyond), but I didn't see an offensive drop-off this severe. Basically, if the Pats can strike early, this game will turn into a runaway by halftime. But can this offense strike early and often? I'm going to say no. Whether it's a backdoor cover, or just a closer game than any fans ever thought, I have Oakland hanging around just inside the spread.
San Francisco (-3) over ARIZONA
Carson Palmer can't grip a football right now because of a nerve issue in his arm or shoulder. This means Drew Stanton will most likely be the quarterback to face the 49ers. I don't like that matchup. Kaepernick makes a couple more plays (quite possibly with his legs) to help the 49ers win a close one.
SEATTLE (-5) over Denver
Seattle covers single-digit spreads at home.
Kansas City (+4) over MIAMI
Upset special as I don't see the Dolphins able to establish their running game without Knowshon Moreno. Or, to put it more bluntly, I don't see Miami establishing the run game with the always-disappointing Lamar Miller as the feature back. Without the run game, Miami's pass attack won't get untracked which will allow Alex Smith to win a field goal fest, something like 19-13.
CAROLINA (-3) over Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh hasn't given me much hope that they can attack a good defense. They also haven't given me much hope that they can stop much of anything on defense themselves.
Chicago (+3) over NEW YORK JETS
The Jets secondary is awful. Brandon Marshall should be a little healthier than last week (and last week he caught 3 touchdowns...go for 5 this week Brandon!) and the Jets secondary is terrible. As long as Cutler doesn't go full captain turnover, da Bears win this one.
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 8-8 (.500)
2014 Season: 14-18 (.438)
San Diego (+2.5) over BUFFALO
My head is telling me to pick Buffalo. Telling me that I'm underrating the Bills because of my biases coming into the season (in fairness, when was the last time the Bills did anything but underwhelm?) But my gut can't get the picture of Philip Rivers carving up the Seattle defense out of my mind. I don't love the Chargers on a long road trip to Buffalo, but I say Rivers puts up enough points that EJ Manuel has to play catchup, and that's where this Bills offense falls apart.
Dallas (-1) over ST. LOUIS
The Rams intimidating front seven does have a weakness: it can be run on. Dallas seems surprisingly (but correctly) committed to the run, so this should be a case of strength meets weakness, leading to a Dallas road win.
PHILADELPHIA (-6) over Washington
Now that RG3 is hurt, stories are popping up everywhere regarding "Kirk Cousins is actually a better fit" and "Cousins will be Jay Gruden's new Andy Dalton". I want to see Cousins do it against an NFL team not from Jacksonville first. Plus, Andy Dalton tends to be pretty erratic on the road.
Houston (-2) over NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants offense looked much better in week 2 than it did in week 1, but then again, that's not saying much. I don't like backing shaky Eli Manning (even at home) against JJ Watt and the Houston defense.
NEW ORLEANS (-10) over Minnesota
The Saints come home with two weeks worth of frustrating losses hanging over their heads to face a Vikings team with no Adrian Peterson and Matt Cassel starting at quarterback. Saints win big. Maybe not as big as Atlanta did last night, but big.
CINCINNATI (-7) over Tennessee
Cincinnati has won their last 10 regular season home games (that playoff game against San Diego last January is a pretty large asterisk), making the opposing quarterback look pretty bad (except for Andrew Luck, though his team still lost) in 9 of those games. Jake Locker is no Andrew Luck, and I don't see the Titans pressuring Andy Dalton into a significant amount of mistakes.
CLEVELAND (+1.5) over Baltimore
John Harbaugh is 9-1 versus Cleveland as Baltimore head coach. He's also on a 1-game losing streak to the Browns. Basically, if the Saints can't pull away from Cleveland, I don't buy the Ravens will either. And if the Browns can hang around, I think they can take the game in the end.
Green Bay (+2.5) over DETROIT
Both of these teams bring top offenses and incomplete defenses to the table. Detroit's defense doesn't include a functioning secondary, while Green Bay's is very lacking up front. The thing is, Detroit isn't that well equipped to take advantage of Green Bay's weakness, as their power running game is nothing like either Seattle's or the Jets' versions.
Indianapolis (-7) over JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis doesn't have a pass rush, but I'm not sure you need one to get to Jacksonville's quarterback. The Jaguars gave up 10 sacks to the Redskins last week. 10! Really! Add in Jacksonville's seeming inability to covers receivers downfield against either Philly or Washington, and, well, the Colts should put up lots of points.
Oakland (+14) over NEW ENGLAND
I'm not sure what to make of the New England offense. First they got clobbered and shut out in the second half of the Miami game, and then, despite downing the Vikings 30-7, they didn't break 300 yards of offense. We've been able to count on Brady and the offense hardly skipping a beat almost no matter what happens, especially against lesser teams, but is that true this year? I said before the season started that New England's defense would be the unit to carry this team back to the AFC Championship game (and beyond), but I didn't see an offensive drop-off this severe. Basically, if the Pats can strike early, this game will turn into a runaway by halftime. But can this offense strike early and often? I'm going to say no. Whether it's a backdoor cover, or just a closer game than any fans ever thought, I have Oakland hanging around just inside the spread.
San Francisco (-3) over ARIZONA
Carson Palmer can't grip a football right now because of a nerve issue in his arm or shoulder. This means Drew Stanton will most likely be the quarterback to face the 49ers. I don't like that matchup. Kaepernick makes a couple more plays (quite possibly with his legs) to help the 49ers win a close one.
SEATTLE (-5) over Denver
Seattle covers single-digit spreads at home.
Kansas City (+4) over MIAMI
Upset special as I don't see the Dolphins able to establish their running game without Knowshon Moreno. Or, to put it more bluntly, I don't see Miami establishing the run game with the always-disappointing Lamar Miller as the feature back. Without the run game, Miami's pass attack won't get untracked which will allow Alex Smith to win a field goal fest, something like 19-13.
CAROLINA (-3) over Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh hasn't given me much hope that they can attack a good defense. They also haven't given me much hope that they can stop much of anything on defense themselves.
Chicago (+3) over NEW YORK JETS
The Jets secondary is awful. Brandon Marshall should be a little healthier than last week (and last week he caught 3 touchdowns...go for 5 this week Brandon!) and the Jets secondary is terrible. As long as Cutler doesn't go full captain turnover, da Bears win this one.
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 8-8 (.500)
2014 Season: 14-18 (.438)
Thursday, September 18, 2014
NFL Picks, Week 3 - Thursday Night Edition
ATLANTA (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
Why? Three reasons:
1. Tampa Bay has played Carolina (starting Derek Anderson, his first start in 4 years and first passes thrown in a regular season game in over a year), and St. Louis (starting Austin Davis, his first NFL start ever since college in 2011), both at home. They lost both games. Absent an act of God between now and game-time, Atlanta will be starting Matt Ryan.
2. Josh McCown's career statistics when not playing under Marc Trestman:
Yes Atlanta's defense is awful, but Josh McCown isn't taking full advantage of that.
Why? Three reasons:
1. Tampa Bay has played Carolina (starting Derek Anderson, his first start in 4 years and first passes thrown in a regular season game in over a year), and St. Louis (starting Austin Davis, his first NFL start ever since college in 2011), both at home. They lost both games. Absent an act of God between now and game-time, Atlanta will be starting Matt Ryan.
2. Josh McCown's career statistics when not playing under Marc Trestman:
|
G
|
GS
|
QBrec
|
Cmp
|
Att
|
Cmp%
|
Yds
|
TD
|
Int
|
Y/A
|
Rating
|
|
55
|
35
|
16-24-0
|
683
|
1169
|
52.53%
|
7360
|
39
|
47
|
5.4
|
60.2
|
3. It's a midweek game, and the visiting team isn't significantly better than the home team (in fact, they're worse overall, especially with Tampa's multitude of injuries). Therefore, take the home team and don't look back.
Saturday, September 13, 2014
NFL Picks, Week 2
It's week 2 of the NFL season, which means we're right in the middle of overreaction week. You see, fans, "experts", and even the clubs themsevles come into the season with (relative degrees of) informed opinions about how the season will play out. Then week 1 comes along and trashes many of those preconceived ideas. So does that mean we were wrong? Or was this just a small-sample-size issue that will be corrected as more games are played?
As always, home team in CAPS.
Baltimore (-2.5) over Pittsburgh
Note: I made this pick on twitter yesterday evening.
Question: Should I be looking at the 1st half Pittsburgh from week 1 or the second half Pittsburgh from week 1?
After that game, I think the answer has to be second-half Pittsburgh. The Steelers simply have no pass rush whatsoever, and their secondary will continue to be horribly exposed unless they find one quickly.
CAROLINA (-2.5) over Detroit
Question: Wait, Carolina is heading for a big-time regression year...right?
Everyone and their mother was picking Carolina to take a big step back from last year's division championship. Many even had Carolina bringing up the rear in the NFC South. And then Cam Newton broke his ribs during the preseason. And then he was held out of their first game against a Tampa Bay team almost universally described as "frisky". Surely, Carolina would exit week 1 0-1.
Nope, they beat Tampa 20-14. Again, without Cam Newton, and without any wide receiver who caught a pass from Newton last season. That's right, Derek Anderson led this team to victory last week.
So what does this mean? Is Carolina going to become the first NFC South winner to repeat as division champion since the division was created in 2002? I'm not ready to predict that, but I am going to take the Panthers to win this game against the Lions, who looked unstoppable in week 1*.
* but it was against the New York Giants. More on them later.
For all of the questions surrounding the Panthers' offense, their defense hasn't lost much from last year's impressive season. And while Detroit is under new leadership, I'm not ready to believe they'll go on the road and handle a tough opponent until I see it happen.
Miami (PICK) over BUFFALO
Question: Are these two teams for real?
In Buffalo's case, they looked so bad offensively in the preseason, but then knocked off Chicago in week 1. In Miami's case, they outscored the Patriots 23-0 in the second half of their week 1 matchup behind a brand-new offensive line and under a new offensive system (one that doesn't include confusing hand signals). I'm buying Miami as a threat, but EJ Manuel still has a ways to go before Buffalo gets there.
WASHINGTON (-6) over Jacksonville
Question: Oh no, the RG3 bandwagon is veering towards a ditch, jump off!!! SAVE YOURSELF!!!!
Okay, that's not really a question. But let's talk RG3. He had a rough preseason, but last week was a real bucket of cold water for Washington fans. Griffin struggled, and worse, seemed averse to running. Granted, running too often has gotten him in trouble in the past, but if he takes it out of his arsenal completely, he's artificially capping his potential as a quarterback. Add in JAcksonville's surprising first half showing against the Eagles (0 points allowed), and this could get ugly quick for RG3 and his team.
Except if you look a little closer at the Jacksonville game, much of the blame for Philly's woes lays at Nick Foles' feet. I have seen snapshot after snapshot of Eagles receivers running free during that first half and Foles simply missing them or not seeing them. This leads me to believe the Jacksonville defense is more like the second half edition (27 points allowed) versus the first half one. Griffin gets back on track this week and silences (for now) the growing rumble of discontent in the nation's capital.
TENNESSEE (-3.5) over Dallas
Question: Could the Titans be a legitimate contender in the AFC South?
Kansas City was going to regress this year, that much seemed clear. But very few people saw Tennessee's 26-10 easy win in week 1 coming. Now, I'm not ready to crown Tennessee, because it sure looked like Kansas City spent most of that game shooting itself in the foot and watching important defensive cogs fall with season-ending injuries. And I still don't trust Jake Locker yet. That being said, Tennessee proved very capable of taking advantage of an over-matched defense, and this week they play the Dallas Over-matchedDefenses.
Arizona (-2.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Question: Are the New York Giants really that bad?
Well, I think so, yes. It's not just the 21-point loss to the Lions, or the multiple Eli Manning interceptions (no, those weren't 2013 flashback, those happened). More concerning to me were the numerous incidents where Manning and his receivers clearly weren't on the same page. Yes, the Giants hired a new offensive coordinator with a new scheme, but they had an entire offseason to get things right. And they're still flubbing simple things like hand signals? I take that as a very, very bad sign.
New England (-3) over MINNESOTA
Questions: Are the Patriots dead? Long live the Patriots?
I'm going to say no to this one. I do believe the offense will take another small step back this season (unless Gronk plays a full 16 plus playoffs, which I doubt), but the defense should be very good. Like top-5 good. Yes I'm concerned about that second half in Miami where the Patriots could not stop the Dolphins from running all over them, but I trust Belichick to shore things up there. And then there's this:
New Orleans (-6.5) over CLEVELAND
Question: Umm...what happened to the good Saints defense that should only have gotten better?
New Orleans was a top-10 defense last season. Yeah, really. And they added a top safety in the game to their defense this offseason. And then Atlanta went out and hung up 37 on them. I'm writing this off as an outlier. Or, to put it another way, I think that result says more about Atlanta and their offense than it does about New Orleans and their defense. The Saints get back on track this week against the Browns.
Atlanta (+5.5) over CINCINNATI
Question: Is Atlanta back?
As long as Matt Ryan, Juilio Jones, and Roddy White are healthy, the offense should be there. In this game, I think they can put up enough points to bring out bad Andy Dalton.
TAMPA BAY (-6) over St. Louis
Question: Are either of these teams better than they showed last week?
I think they have to be, but Tampa Bay will get there quicker. As of this writing, the Rams sound like they're leaning towards starting Austin Davis on the road against a Lovie Smith defense. If Tampa can't put the clamps on Davis a week after failing to do so on Derek Anderson, sound the alarms.
Seattle (-6) over SAN DIEGO
Question: Is Seattle as good as they looked against Green Bay?
Will they blow everyone out by 20+ points? No. But will their offense continue to show great progress and take more of the load on their shoulders instead of relying so much on their terrific defense? Yes, especially if they can keep Percy Harvin healthy. And if the offense can be on close to equal footing with the defense...watch out NFL.
Houston (-3) over OAKLAND
Question: Can the Texans really compete for a playoff spot with Ryan Fitzpatrick/Ryan Mallett under center?
I still say the answer is no, but that won't stop JJ Watt from ripping apart the Raider offensive line to get to Derek Carr.
New York Jets (+8.5) over GREEN BAY
Question: Green Bay is still really good, right?
Their offense is, unquestionably. The defense is probably as bad as they looked on kickoff night. Especially if you a) play enough defense to keep the game close, b) are committed to the run and will stay with it all game. Green Bay's secondary is good and talented, the rest of that defense? Well...no. The Jets won't dominate this game like Seattle did, but if they can avoid early turnovers I don't see Green Bay pulling away.
DENVER (-12) over Kansas City
Question: Just how bad will Kansas City be?
It's looking like worse than we thought. The defense got hit pretty hard by injuries in week 1, but it may be the offensive line that's most responsible for the team's regression. They could not protect Alex Smith, which probably gave him flashbacks to the Mike Nolan San Francisco era. When you can't protect Alex Smith, he;s not going to give you much. Even if Andy Reid remembers to not ignore Jamaal Charles (aka, his main offensive weapon) in future games, Kansas City is going to struggle to put up points.
SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) over Chicago
Question: Were San Francisco's preseason struggles overblown?
To a degree, yes. They were never going to be as bad as the preseason made them look. There's too much talent here still, even after they've been thinned by injuries and suspensions. But putting up 28 points against Dallas doesn't tell us much, and honestly, Chicago's defense isn't much better. I thought we'd get more answers about San Francisco's defense in this game, but with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey gimpy at best (and they might not even play), Chicago doesn't have the firepower to compete with the 49ers on the road.
Philadelphia (+3) over INDIANAPOLIS
Question: Can we just write off that whole 17-0 halftime deficit to the Jaguars?
I'm going to say yes, like I said above, most of the issues fall at Foles' feet. And while he's not going to have only 4 turnovers all season again, he's not going to start averaging 3 a game either. Unless you can matchup with Philly's receivers in man coverage consistently, or you can get to Foles, Philly's going to get theirs on offense. I don't see Indy doing either one consistently Monday night.
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 6-10 (.375)
As always, home team in CAPS.
Baltimore (-2.5) over Pittsburgh
Note: I made this pick on twitter yesterday evening.
Question: Should I be looking at the 1st half Pittsburgh from week 1 or the second half Pittsburgh from week 1?
After that game, I think the answer has to be second-half Pittsburgh. The Steelers simply have no pass rush whatsoever, and their secondary will continue to be horribly exposed unless they find one quickly.
CAROLINA (-2.5) over Detroit
Question: Wait, Carolina is heading for a big-time regression year...right?
Everyone and their mother was picking Carolina to take a big step back from last year's division championship. Many even had Carolina bringing up the rear in the NFC South. And then Cam Newton broke his ribs during the preseason. And then he was held out of their first game against a Tampa Bay team almost universally described as "frisky". Surely, Carolina would exit week 1 0-1.
Nope, they beat Tampa 20-14. Again, without Cam Newton, and without any wide receiver who caught a pass from Newton last season. That's right, Derek Anderson led this team to victory last week.
So what does this mean? Is Carolina going to become the first NFC South winner to repeat as division champion since the division was created in 2002? I'm not ready to predict that, but I am going to take the Panthers to win this game against the Lions, who looked unstoppable in week 1*.
* but it was against the New York Giants. More on them later.
For all of the questions surrounding the Panthers' offense, their defense hasn't lost much from last year's impressive season. And while Detroit is under new leadership, I'm not ready to believe they'll go on the road and handle a tough opponent until I see it happen.
Miami (PICK) over BUFFALO
Question: Are these two teams for real?
In Buffalo's case, they looked so bad offensively in the preseason, but then knocked off Chicago in week 1. In Miami's case, they outscored the Patriots 23-0 in the second half of their week 1 matchup behind a brand-new offensive line and under a new offensive system (one that doesn't include confusing hand signals). I'm buying Miami as a threat, but EJ Manuel still has a ways to go before Buffalo gets there.
WASHINGTON (-6) over Jacksonville
Question: Oh no, the RG3 bandwagon is veering towards a ditch, jump off!!! SAVE YOURSELF!!!!
Okay, that's not really a question. But let's talk RG3. He had a rough preseason, but last week was a real bucket of cold water for Washington fans. Griffin struggled, and worse, seemed averse to running. Granted, running too often has gotten him in trouble in the past, but if he takes it out of his arsenal completely, he's artificially capping his potential as a quarterback. Add in JAcksonville's surprising first half showing against the Eagles (0 points allowed), and this could get ugly quick for RG3 and his team.
Except if you look a little closer at the Jacksonville game, much of the blame for Philly's woes lays at Nick Foles' feet. I have seen snapshot after snapshot of Eagles receivers running free during that first half and Foles simply missing them or not seeing them. This leads me to believe the Jacksonville defense is more like the second half edition (27 points allowed) versus the first half one. Griffin gets back on track this week and silences (for now) the growing rumble of discontent in the nation's capital.
TENNESSEE (-3.5) over Dallas
Question: Could the Titans be a legitimate contender in the AFC South?
Kansas City was going to regress this year, that much seemed clear. But very few people saw Tennessee's 26-10 easy win in week 1 coming. Now, I'm not ready to crown Tennessee, because it sure looked like Kansas City spent most of that game shooting itself in the foot and watching important defensive cogs fall with season-ending injuries. And I still don't trust Jake Locker yet. That being said, Tennessee proved very capable of taking advantage of an over-matched defense, and this week they play the Dallas Over-matchedDefenses.
Arizona (-2.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Question: Are the New York Giants really that bad?
Well, I think so, yes. It's not just the 21-point loss to the Lions, or the multiple Eli Manning interceptions (no, those weren't 2013 flashback, those happened). More concerning to me were the numerous incidents where Manning and his receivers clearly weren't on the same page. Yes, the Giants hired a new offensive coordinator with a new scheme, but they had an entire offseason to get things right. And they're still flubbing simple things like hand signals? I take that as a very, very bad sign.
New England (-3) over MINNESOTA
Questions: Are the Patriots dead? Long live the Patriots?
I'm going to say no to this one. I do believe the offense will take another small step back this season (unless Gronk plays a full 16 plus playoffs, which I doubt), but the defense should be very good. Like top-5 good. Yes I'm concerned about that second half in Miami where the Patriots could not stop the Dolphins from running all over them, but I trust Belichick to shore things up there. And then there's this:
RT @JayGlazer: Texas law enforcement handing down indictment today on Vikings RB Adrian Peterson on charges of injury to a child.
— Peter King (@SI_PeterKing) September 12, 2014
Absolutely unbelievable. Whether you believe in some form of corporal punishment or not, I just don't see how it's anything resembling good parenting to whip a 4-year-old with a tree branch. Especially if you have the strength of an NFL running back.New Orleans (-6.5) over CLEVELAND
Question: Umm...what happened to the good Saints defense that should only have gotten better?
New Orleans was a top-10 defense last season. Yeah, really. And they added a top safety in the game to their defense this offseason. And then Atlanta went out and hung up 37 on them. I'm writing this off as an outlier. Or, to put it another way, I think that result says more about Atlanta and their offense than it does about New Orleans and their defense. The Saints get back on track this week against the Browns.
Atlanta (+5.5) over CINCINNATI
Question: Is Atlanta back?
As long as Matt Ryan, Juilio Jones, and Roddy White are healthy, the offense should be there. In this game, I think they can put up enough points to bring out bad Andy Dalton.
TAMPA BAY (-6) over St. Louis
Question: Are either of these teams better than they showed last week?
I think they have to be, but Tampa Bay will get there quicker. As of this writing, the Rams sound like they're leaning towards starting Austin Davis on the road against a Lovie Smith defense. If Tampa can't put the clamps on Davis a week after failing to do so on Derek Anderson, sound the alarms.
Seattle (-6) over SAN DIEGO
Question: Is Seattle as good as they looked against Green Bay?
Will they blow everyone out by 20+ points? No. But will their offense continue to show great progress and take more of the load on their shoulders instead of relying so much on their terrific defense? Yes, especially if they can keep Percy Harvin healthy. And if the offense can be on close to equal footing with the defense...watch out NFL.
Houston (-3) over OAKLAND
Question: Can the Texans really compete for a playoff spot with Ryan Fitzpatrick/Ryan Mallett under center?
I still say the answer is no, but that won't stop JJ Watt from ripping apart the Raider offensive line to get to Derek Carr.
New York Jets (+8.5) over GREEN BAY
Question: Green Bay is still really good, right?
Their offense is, unquestionably. The defense is probably as bad as they looked on kickoff night. Especially if you a) play enough defense to keep the game close, b) are committed to the run and will stay with it all game. Green Bay's secondary is good and talented, the rest of that defense? Well...no. The Jets won't dominate this game like Seattle did, but if they can avoid early turnovers I don't see Green Bay pulling away.
DENVER (-12) over Kansas City
Question: Just how bad will Kansas City be?
It's looking like worse than we thought. The defense got hit pretty hard by injuries in week 1, but it may be the offensive line that's most responsible for the team's regression. They could not protect Alex Smith, which probably gave him flashbacks to the Mike Nolan San Francisco era. When you can't protect Alex Smith, he;s not going to give you much. Even if Andy Reid remembers to not ignore Jamaal Charles (aka, his main offensive weapon) in future games, Kansas City is going to struggle to put up points.
SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) over Chicago
Question: Were San Francisco's preseason struggles overblown?
To a degree, yes. They were never going to be as bad as the preseason made them look. There's too much talent here still, even after they've been thinned by injuries and suspensions. But putting up 28 points against Dallas doesn't tell us much, and honestly, Chicago's defense isn't much better. I thought we'd get more answers about San Francisco's defense in this game, but with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey gimpy at best (and they might not even play), Chicago doesn't have the firepower to compete with the 49ers on the road.
Philadelphia (+3) over INDIANAPOLIS
Question: Can we just write off that whole 17-0 halftime deficit to the Jaguars?
I'm going to say yes, like I said above, most of the issues fall at Foles' feet. And while he's not going to have only 4 turnovers all season again, he's not going to start averaging 3 a game either. Unless you can matchup with Philly's receivers in man coverage consistently, or you can get to Foles, Philly's going to get theirs on offense. I don't see Indy doing either one consistently Monday night.
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 6-10 (.375)
Sunday, September 7, 2014
NFL Picks, Week 1
I'm the best prognosticator in the game. When you come at me with a sorry line like Seattle -5.5 at home against a defense like Green Bay, that's the result you're going to get! Don't you ever talk about me!
*mic drop*
Sorry about that, with me being undefeated for the season and all I just had to channel my inner Richard Sherman. I probably won't get this opportunity to crow again.
Before we move on to the rest of week 1's slate, here are three thoughts on the 36-16 Seahawks win.
1. Green Bay's defense is not good. They have talent in their secondary, but their line and linebackers (outside of Clay Matthews and maybe Julius Peppers from a pass rushing perspective) are average at best. Fortunately for Green Bay, their offense will be good enough to jump out to early leads and force other teams to play catch-up. In that mode, this defense should be okay. But against the top teams who can stay balanced, Green Bay is going to struggle to keep up. I still expect the Packers to win their division, but barring some big changes between now and January, I don't see them as legitimate contenders for the title.
2. Last year Seattle was the best team in the league with an historically good defense, great special teams play, and an offense that did enough overall. This year the defense looks pretty close to last year's levels, the special teams have taken a small step back (Earl Thomas is a phenom, a terrific safety, and the lynchpin that makes Seattle's defense work...but he's not a punt returner), but the offense is ready to take its place as a true peer to the defense, instead of remaining in its shadow. Much of that improvement comes with having a healthy (for now...hopefully for the season) Percy Harvin. But two other important factors are 1) the continued maturation of Russell Wilson and 2) massive improvements in the play of both offensive guards.
3. The margin of victory in this game was 20 points. Seattle was never threatened in the second half. And the Seahawks played maybe a B- game. This game could easily have been a 30+ point blowout in the 3rd quarter. Your move, rest of the NFL.
Onto the picks. Home teams in CAPS
New Orleans (-3) over ATLANTA
The Saints have a great offense, and a very good defense. Atlanta has a very good offense, and...well, their offense is pretty good. Did I mention that?
Minnesota (+3.5) over ST. LOUIS
In all honesty, I wasn't all that impressed with the Greg Williams hire as defensive coordinator for the Rams. Williams is a very good defensive mind, but his specialty is bringing extra guys to pressure the quarterback, leaving his secondary very vulnerable if they don't get home. The Rams have arguably the best young front four in the league and a poor secondary. If Williams gets blitz-happy, he's needlessly going against the strength of his team.
Oh yeah, and St. Louis lost their starting quarterback for the year in preseason.
PITTSBURGH (-6.5) over Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-25 against the Steelers since 2000. Brian Hoyer is not the quarterback to change these fortunes. And if they feature a Manziel-package, well, ask Rex Ryan how specialty packages for the backup quarterback work out (spoiler alert: not well).
PHILADELPHIA (-10.5) over Jacksonville
I'd feel better about this pick if Philly's defense were good. Luckily, Chad Henne is definitely not good, so I'm going with Philly's offense to run up a lead and coast to an easy win.
NEW YORK JETS (-5.5) over Oakland
Rex Ryan's defense against a rookie quarterback on the road with Oakland's supporting cast? Yes please.
BALTIMORE (-1.5) over Cincinnati
Andy Dalton is 30-18 in his three seasons in the NFL. Exactly zero of those 30 wins have come on the road against Baltimore. In fact, Dalton has just 2 wins in 6 tries against the Ravens overall, and his last win (in week 17 last season) featured this stat line:
21/36, 281 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT, 0 sacks
Yeah, not good. The Ravens won't be completely inept on offense this year, so I'm picking Dalton's struggles against them to continue.
CHICAGO (-7) over Buffalo
Chicago's defense is legitimately bad, but their offense (as long as Cutler stays healthy) should be explosive. Buffalo's defense should be above average, but their offense is going to struggle. At the center of these struggles is second-year starting quarterback EJ Manuel. Manuel was so unimpressive this preseason that Buffalo got Kyle Orton off of his couch and handed him $5 Million to "back up" Manuel. Of course, if they really wanted him to back up Manuel, a) they would have brought him in sooner, so he could help Manuel get better over the course of the preseason and b) they wouldn't have handed him $5 Million.
Washington (+3) over HOUSTON
I believe RG3 will make more plays against a great Houston defense than Ryan Fitpatrick will make against a good-when-its-healthy-and-it's-week-one-so-it's-pretty-healthy Washington defense.
KANSAS CITY (-3) over Tennessee
The Chiefs earned a playoff spot last year by beating the teams they should beat and losing to the good teams they played. They just had an easy schedule so the math worked for them. This year their schedule is harder, but Tennessee has no part in making their schedule harder than last year's.
New England (-4.5) over MIAMI
New England is going to be a powerhouse defensive team this season. Miami is starting an all-new offensive line from last season (which is more good than bad, as last year's line was atrocious, but still isn't ideal heading into week 1), and their starting center is missing the first month of the season.
TAMPA BAY (-2.5) over Carolina
The reason Greg Schiano was fired is because this team has talent, especially on defense, and Schiano had no idea how to use it to maximize their ability. Case in point, he had Darrelle Revis, likely the best man corner in the league, playing almost exclusively off zone defense. Lovie Smith knows defense. He's clueless on offense, which helps explain why he gave Josh McCown the unquestioned starting quarterback job, but he will have this defense playing up to its talent level. And Carolina, with an injured Cam Newton with no receivers on the roster who caught a pass from Newton last season, won't put up enough of a fight to force Tampa's offense to make a lot of plays.
San Francisco (-4.5) over DALLAS
I know the 49ers have had their share of offensive struggles this preseason, but Dallas fielded the worst defense in history last season...and they somehow got worse this offseason. And by somehow, I mean thanks to Jerry Jones' a) mismanagement of the salary cap and b) refusal to commit to a rebuilding period to clean up their cap. But he insists he's the guy to bring Dallas back to prominence.
DENVER (-7.5) over Indianapolis
I believe Andrew Luck is on his way to being a great quarterback. I believe the Colts have used up their good fortune for the next 50 years by timing their tank jobs so well twice (for Manning and then Luck). I believe the Colts are the 3rd best team in the AFC. But I believe Indy's defense is a patchwork job, and the absence of Robert Mathis means the pass rush cannot paper over this fact. Without a pass rush, they will not slow down Peyton Manning.
DETROIT (-6) over New York Giants
Did you see the Giants offense this preseason? I just don't see them hanging with the offense the Lions will put up, especially when you factor in that Detroit front four going against the unimpressive New York offensive line.
San Diego (+3) over ARIZONA
Arizona reached 10 wins mostly on the back of a top-5 defense. Thanks to defections, injuries, and suspensions, that defense will take quite a few steps back this season. That will force Carson Palmer to do more. And when Carson Palmer tries to do more, turnovers happen. In bunches.
*mic drop*
Sorry about that, with me being undefeated for the season and all I just had to channel my inner Richard Sherman. I probably won't get this opportunity to crow again.
Before we move on to the rest of week 1's slate, here are three thoughts on the 36-16 Seahawks win.
1. Green Bay's defense is not good. They have talent in their secondary, but their line and linebackers (outside of Clay Matthews and maybe Julius Peppers from a pass rushing perspective) are average at best. Fortunately for Green Bay, their offense will be good enough to jump out to early leads and force other teams to play catch-up. In that mode, this defense should be okay. But against the top teams who can stay balanced, Green Bay is going to struggle to keep up. I still expect the Packers to win their division, but barring some big changes between now and January, I don't see them as legitimate contenders for the title.
2. Last year Seattle was the best team in the league with an historically good defense, great special teams play, and an offense that did enough overall. This year the defense looks pretty close to last year's levels, the special teams have taken a small step back (Earl Thomas is a phenom, a terrific safety, and the lynchpin that makes Seattle's defense work...but he's not a punt returner), but the offense is ready to take its place as a true peer to the defense, instead of remaining in its shadow. Much of that improvement comes with having a healthy (for now...hopefully for the season) Percy Harvin. But two other important factors are 1) the continued maturation of Russell Wilson and 2) massive improvements in the play of both offensive guards.
3. The margin of victory in this game was 20 points. Seattle was never threatened in the second half. And the Seahawks played maybe a B- game. This game could easily have been a 30+ point blowout in the 3rd quarter. Your move, rest of the NFL.
Onto the picks. Home teams in CAPS
New Orleans (-3) over ATLANTA
The Saints have a great offense, and a very good defense. Atlanta has a very good offense, and...well, their offense is pretty good. Did I mention that?
Minnesota (+3.5) over ST. LOUIS
In all honesty, I wasn't all that impressed with the Greg Williams hire as defensive coordinator for the Rams. Williams is a very good defensive mind, but his specialty is bringing extra guys to pressure the quarterback, leaving his secondary very vulnerable if they don't get home. The Rams have arguably the best young front four in the league and a poor secondary. If Williams gets blitz-happy, he's needlessly going against the strength of his team.
Oh yeah, and St. Louis lost their starting quarterback for the year in preseason.
PITTSBURGH (-6.5) over Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-25 against the Steelers since 2000. Brian Hoyer is not the quarterback to change these fortunes. And if they feature a Manziel-package, well, ask Rex Ryan how specialty packages for the backup quarterback work out (spoiler alert: not well).
PHILADELPHIA (-10.5) over Jacksonville
I'd feel better about this pick if Philly's defense were good. Luckily, Chad Henne is definitely not good, so I'm going with Philly's offense to run up a lead and coast to an easy win.
NEW YORK JETS (-5.5) over Oakland
Rex Ryan's defense against a rookie quarterback on the road with Oakland's supporting cast? Yes please.
BALTIMORE (-1.5) over Cincinnati
Andy Dalton is 30-18 in his three seasons in the NFL. Exactly zero of those 30 wins have come on the road against Baltimore. In fact, Dalton has just 2 wins in 6 tries against the Ravens overall, and his last win (in week 17 last season) featured this stat line:
21/36, 281 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT, 0 sacks
Yeah, not good. The Ravens won't be completely inept on offense this year, so I'm picking Dalton's struggles against them to continue.
Chicago's defense is legitimately bad, but their offense (as long as Cutler stays healthy) should be explosive. Buffalo's defense should be above average, but their offense is going to struggle. At the center of these struggles is second-year starting quarterback EJ Manuel. Manuel was so unimpressive this preseason that Buffalo got Kyle Orton off of his couch and handed him $5 Million to "back up" Manuel. Of course, if they really wanted him to back up Manuel, a) they would have brought him in sooner, so he could help Manuel get better over the course of the preseason and b) they wouldn't have handed him $5 Million.
Washington (+3) over HOUSTON
I believe RG3 will make more plays against a great Houston defense than Ryan Fitpatrick will make against a good-when-its-healthy-and-it's-week-one-so-it's-pretty-healthy Washington defense.
KANSAS CITY (-3) over Tennessee
The Chiefs earned a playoff spot last year by beating the teams they should beat and losing to the good teams they played. They just had an easy schedule so the math worked for them. This year their schedule is harder, but Tennessee has no part in making their schedule harder than last year's.
New England (-4.5) over MIAMI
New England is going to be a powerhouse defensive team this season. Miami is starting an all-new offensive line from last season (which is more good than bad, as last year's line was atrocious, but still isn't ideal heading into week 1), and their starting center is missing the first month of the season.
TAMPA BAY (-2.5) over Carolina
The reason Greg Schiano was fired is because this team has talent, especially on defense, and Schiano had no idea how to use it to maximize their ability. Case in point, he had Darrelle Revis, likely the best man corner in the league, playing almost exclusively off zone defense. Lovie Smith knows defense. He's clueless on offense, which helps explain why he gave Josh McCown the unquestioned starting quarterback job, but he will have this defense playing up to its talent level. And Carolina, with an injured Cam Newton with no receivers on the roster who caught a pass from Newton last season, won't put up enough of a fight to force Tampa's offense to make a lot of plays.
San Francisco (-4.5) over DALLAS
I know the 49ers have had their share of offensive struggles this preseason, but Dallas fielded the worst defense in history last season...and they somehow got worse this offseason. And by somehow, I mean thanks to Jerry Jones' a) mismanagement of the salary cap and b) refusal to commit to a rebuilding period to clean up their cap. But he insists he's the guy to bring Dallas back to prominence.
DENVER (-7.5) over Indianapolis
I believe Andrew Luck is on his way to being a great quarterback. I believe the Colts have used up their good fortune for the next 50 years by timing their tank jobs so well twice (for Manning and then Luck). I believe the Colts are the 3rd best team in the AFC. But I believe Indy's defense is a patchwork job, and the absence of Robert Mathis means the pass rush cannot paper over this fact. Without a pass rush, they will not slow down Peyton Manning.
DETROIT (-6) over New York Giants
Did you see the Giants offense this preseason? I just don't see them hanging with the offense the Lions will put up, especially when you factor in that Detroit front four going against the unimpressive New York offensive line.
San Diego (+3) over ARIZONA
Arizona reached 10 wins mostly on the back of a top-5 defense. Thanks to defections, injuries, and suspensions, that defense will take quite a few steps back this season. That will force Carson Palmer to do more. And when Carson Palmer tries to do more, turnovers happen. In bunches.
This Week: 1-0
Regular Season History:
2013 Midweek Picks: 7-9-1
2012: 114-133-9 (.463)
2011: 51-55-4 (.482)
Postseason History:
2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455)Miles' 2013 Postseason: 6-3-2 (.550)
2012: 114-133-9 (.463)
2011: 51-55-4 (.482)
2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455)Miles' 2013 Postseason: 6-3-2 (.550)
2012 Postseason: 6-4-1
2011 Postseason: 6-5
2011 Postseason: 6-5
Thursday, September 4, 2014
Quick NFL Preview and Tonight's Pick
Well, these last couple of months have been a whirlwind. The main reason? My wife and I welcomed our daughter into the world in mid-August. She's beautiful and wonderful, and her and my son take up much of our time. For those (terrific) reasons, I'm scaling back the blog for this football season. No standing updates, no power polls, just the occasional commentary and the picks.
But before I get to tonight's pick, here are my quick predictions for the year:
But before I get to tonight's pick, here are my quick predictions for the year:
|
AFC
|
NFC
|
||||||
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
|
New England Patriots (1)
|
13
|
3
|
0
|
Philadelphia Eagles (4)
|
11
|
5
|
0
|
|
Miami Dolphins
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
Washington Redskins
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
|
New York Jets
|
7
|
9
|
0
|
New York Giants
|
5
|
11
|
0
|
|
Buffalo Bills
|
4
|
12
|
0
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
4
|
12
|
0
|
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
|
Baltimore Ravens (4)
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
Green Bay Packers (3)
|
12
|
4
|
0
|
|
Cincinnati Bengals (5)
|
9
|
7
|
0
|
Chicago Bears (5)
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
|
Pittsbugh Steelers
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
|
Cleveland Browns
|
5
|
11
|
0
|
Detroit Lions
|
5
|
11
|
0
|
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
|
Indianapolis Colts (2)
|
12
|
4
|
0
|
New Orleans Saints (2)
|
13
|
3
|
0
|
|
Houston Texans (6)
|
9
|
7
|
0
|
Atlanta Falcons
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
|
Tennessee Titans
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
7
|
9
|
0
|
|
Jacksonville Jaguars
|
5
|
11
|
0
|
Carolina Panthers
|
5
|
11
|
0
|
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
|
Denver Broncos (3)
|
11
|
5
|
0
|
Seattle Seahawks (1)
|
13
|
3
|
0
|
|
San Diego Chargers
|
7
|
9
|
0
|
San Francisco 49ers (6)
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
St. Louis Rams
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
|
Oakland Raiders
|
3
|
13
|
0
|
Arizona Cardinals
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
Leading to a somewhat familiar outcome:
WILD CARD ROUND
| |
AFC (3v6)
|
Broncos over Texans
|
AFC (4v5)
|
Ravens over Bengals
|
NFC (3v6)
|
49ers over Packers
|
NFC (4v5)
|
Eagles over Bears
|
DIVISIONAL ROUND
| |
AFC (1v4)
|
Patriots over Ravens
|
AFC (2V3)
|
Broncos over Colts
|
NFC (1V6)
|
Seahawks over 49ers
|
NFC (2V4)
|
Saints over Eagles
|
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND
| |
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
|
Patriots over Broncos
|
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
|
Seahawks over Saints
|
SUPER BOWL
| |
SB XLVII
|
Seahawks over Patriots
|
Yes, I'm picking the Seahawks to repeat. Going into this offseason, I was sure they wouldn't repeat because the margin between them and the 49ers last season was razor-thin, and a combination of reloading and general luck could easily swing the 2014 NFC West title to the 49ers. However, everything about the preseason indicated the 49ers may be looking at a bit of a regression, while the Seahawks look like any defensive regression will be countered with an offensive improvement (please stay healthy Percy Harvin).
As for the AFC, I believe there are (again) two legitimate contenders: the Broncos and Patriots. And if they stay healthy, I believe the improvements New England has made on defense will carry them over the Broncos in the regular season (to secure home field for the rematch), and in the AFC Championship Game.
And while I believe the Patriots will put up a much better fight than last year's Broncos, I trust Russell Wilson and his weapons to put up a few more points on the Pats D than I do Brady and his weapons against the Seahawks defense.
Now, onto tonight's pick, home team in CAPS.
SEATTLE (-5.5) over Green Bay
Similar to the narrative heading into the Super Bowl, everyone is talking about the Packers offense versus the Seahawks defense. I don't expect the Seattle D to shut down Rodgers like their Super Bowl performance (Green Bay has a better running game and should be more balanced than Denver was), but I do expect them to hold him below 21 points with the home crowd on their side.
So we look to the Seahawks offense versus the Packers D, can Seattle score 24+ points? I believe they can put up 30+. With Percy Harvin healthy, and Russell Wilson looking maestro-ish (new word alert) throughout the preseason (I know, I know, but he looked really REALLY good, it can't all be meaningless), this offense is ready to step out of the defense's shadow. And I just do not see the Packers putting up a whole lot of resistance. Dom Capers has proven exceptionally bad at a) containing dual-threat quarterbacks, b) executing disciplined rushes against said QBs, or c) adjusting mid-game to a wrinkle he hadn't expected. And Green Bay's defense isn't talented enough to stop a good offense if they're not working with a schematic advantage.
Seahawks win 34-19.
Regular Season History:
2013 season: 115-134-7 (.463)
2013 Midweek Picks: 7-9-1
2012: 114-133-9 (.463)
2011: 51-55-4 (.482)
Postseason History:
2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455)Miles' 2013 Postseason: 6-3-2 (.550)
2012: 114-133-9 (.463)
2011: 51-55-4 (.482)
2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455)Miles' 2013 Postseason: 6-3-2 (.550)
2012 Postseason: 6-4-1
2011 Postseason: 6-5
2011 Postseason: 6-5
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